Video Breakdown: Nick Johnson

* I did not evaluate Johnson in person. The following breakdown is based on research and film study.

Strengths

• Explosive Athlete. 6-3 Shooting Guard who zips up the floor. Johnson uses his explosiveness in the open court as well as penetrating on ball-screens (60% FG on pick-and-rolls, 1.33 points per possession [PPP]), and finishing in transition (60% FG, 1.23 PPP).

Transition 3-Pointers

Good elevation on his jumper.

Open Court Athleticism

Johnson flies up the floor, and finishes with explosive athleticism.

Driving

Pick-and-Roll Driving

He can really explode turning the corner on a screen. With even the slightest glimpse of daylight on the pick-and-roll, he jaunts towards the rim off from distance, looking to score or draw a foul.

Finishing

Hand Offs

Runners

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• Standstill 3-point shooting (from NCAA range). Johnson converted 38% of his catch-and-shoot attempts, and his 1.13 points per attempt ranked in the top 25th percentile nationally.

However, he struggles to create off the dribble on the perimeter (33% FG and .731 PPP), where he is unable to shake his defender and his athleticism is a non-factor.

Overall, Johnson has proven to be a dangerous shooter with his feet set, which could be valuable at the next level. If defenders close out hard, Johnson often will pump fake and take off for an aerial jaunt towards the basket.

Catch-and-Shoot 3-Pointers

Pick-and-Roll Jumpers

Johnson converted a solid 43% of his pick-and-roll jump shot attempts. As mentioned, he struggles to break his man down off the dribble, but he is a dual-threat on the pick-and-roll.

Short-Range (capable)

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• Persistent Defender. Johnson was assigned to defend the opposing team’s best backcourt player all year long. Johnson allowed 92.4 points per 100 possessions (individual defensive rating), and accounted for 3.0 defensive win shares — each of which ranked 4th in the Pac-12.

So yeah, he does a very good job defending PGs, but he struggles to defend his natural position (SG). Strong and athletic to pressure the ball and keep PGs in front of him—but will he have to guard SGs in the NBA? Probably. 

Effective Defense

Steals

Blocks

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• Good pace and control commanding the basketball. Johnson has a good feel for where teammates are located, and finds ways to deliver them the ball.

However, he’s distributed mostly from an off-guard role, not from a PG role. Johnson has yet to prove he can maestro an offense.

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Weaknesses / Areas of Improvement

• Undersized for Position (6-3 SG). Is he a tweaner? Johnson is neither a true point nor shooting guard—he played alongside a facilitating point guard in college. He handed the ball in spurts, but mostly provided a scoring punch from the wing. Great scoring instincts, but at only 6-3, Johnson hasn’t proved he can run an offense. Where does he fit in the NBA?

• Breaking down his defender. Johnson is effective scoring off the pick-and-roll, where he explodes through space. But without the assistance of a screen, Johnson struggles to penetrate the defense. He appears to lack the ferocity and handle to make plays on his own. Only 7% of his offense this season came in isolation, where he converted a paltry 26% and his 0.68 points per attempt ranked in the bottom 70th percentile nationally.

Short-Range Misses

Off the Dribble

Johnson converted only 33% of his attempts shooting off the dribble. He struggles to create offense, and also has a slight fade on his jumper.

Runner

Finishing Struggles

• Defending Shooting Guards (his natural position?). Johnson is a persistent defender — he pressures the ball and will give you max effort. But the fact is, he struggles to defend bigger guards, who can easily shoot over him or outmuscle him to the basket. He will struggle to defend shooting guards at the next level, both on- and-off ball.

Bad Defense Pt. 1

Bad Defense Pt. 2

• Johnson is labeled a “scorer”, but he’s only average at that.

Johnson was a wing scorer and defender in college. But at only 6-3, will he be able to carve out a niche in the NBA? Again, he played off the ball in college. He could prove capable of running the show, but it’s still a leap of faith.

He’s an incredible athlete with a serviceable jump shot, but for me, the most important question to examine is: Can Johnson solidify his PG skills? If you think he could develop into a backup PG, it could possibly work. If not, he won’t survive in the NBA playing exclusively on the wing/playing SG.