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Kentucky 79, Providence 65

Sunday, December 1, 2013 | Barclays Center (Brooklyn, NY)

Bryce Cotton — PG, 6-0, 165
Senior, 21 years old

Season (35.9 mpg): 18.5 PPG, 5.3 APG, 3 RPG

Game (40 min): 23 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists

Notes: Cotton has a “scorers feel.” He single-handedly kept Providence in the game, scoring 23 points (including five 3-pointers). Cotton initiated all of his points, without ball movement or any set plays. Cotton displayed impressive ball skills, and took Kentucky’s young guards to school.

However, I don’t think his scoring prowess will translate to the NBA level. He’s limited athletically, and at 6-2, Cotton is diminutive in size. Great effort by a very good college player.

Big East Tournament Semifinals

March 14, 2014 | Madison Square Garden (New York, NY)

Providence, Seton Hall, Creighton, Xavier

Game 1:Providence 80, Seton Hall 74
Game 2: Creighton 86, Xavier 78

Bryce Cotton — PG, 6-0, 170
Senior, 21 years old

Season (40 mpg): 21 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 6 APG
41% FG, 37% three-point (5.8 attempts)

Game (40 min): 18 PTS, 10 AST, 2 REB, 1 STL, 4 TO
5-14 FG, 1-3 three-point

Outlook: Cotton is carrying Providence into the NCAA Tournament, while averaging 40 minutes per game. He’s simply indefatigable.

On the court, he’s a crafty ball handler with a smooth mid-range game. Tight handle to get into the second level of the defense, where he can pull up for a jumper or dish. Super quick and gets anywhere he wants on the court.

But he’s diminutive in size and length, not a great athlete, and struggles to finish at the basket. He also expends a ton of energy to get his shot off against taller players on the perimeter. I don’t see Cotton scoring, or defending, at the next level. Good college player, but not NBA caliber.

Video

18 points vs. Seton Hall

Misses vs. Seton Hall (5-14)

10 assists vs. Seton Hall

Video Breakdown: Bryce Cotton

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Overview: Basketball has always been an uphill battle for Bryce Cotton, and trying to carve out a role in the NBA will follow suit.

With a diminutive 6-foot, 165-pound frame, Cotton is a scrappy point guard who can score in bunches. He was indispensable for Providence last season, averaging 39.9 minutes, and scoring 21.8 points to go along with 6 assists, 3.5 rebounds and 1 steal per game. He displayed incredible endurance, prolific scoring ability, and “basketball feel” to get teammates involved (6 assists per 40 minutes, up from 3 assists per 40 as a junior).

Cotton is one of the best scoring—strictly scoring—point guards in this Draft, but still, he carries various question marks. At only 6-foot, he must prove he can score in the NBA, and more importantly, that he can run a team and sufficiently defend NBA point guards. If Cotton lands in the NBA, his role is clear: an instant offense, spark plug player off the bench, who hopefully can hold his own defensively. All the other stuff—passing, rebounding, driving, et al—is trivial.

He was an elite scorer in college (1.01 points per possession), and a knockdown shooter (0.98 points per jump shot; 37% from 3-point range). He gets his teammates involved (though he’s not an elite facilitator in my opinion), and he scores in bunches.

Cotton is very skilled on the perimeter, but he struggles inside the lane. He relies on acrobatic shots to finish around the basket, and is a below average athlete. I wonder if this formula is sustainable at the NBA level. He must develop a floater/runner, so he’s not 100% reliant on acrobatics in lane. He also struggles to defend at only 6-foot. So yes, at 6-feet and with below average athleticism, Cotton has his work cut out for him.

Another question is, Can he make an impact in short spurts? Or does he need the offense to run through him like at Providence? Cotton was the main attraction in college; he’ll need to play a supporting role in the NBA. His margin of error will be very little in the NBA.

If Cotton’s elite shooting and pick-and-roll ability can translate, maybe he can carve out a role in the NBA. But he’s a 6-foot point guard who plays below the rim and has limited upside. The rope will be tight, but to his credit, his scoring and shooting artistry warrant draft consideration.

Strengths

• Shooting Ability

• Pick-and-Roll

• Solid Passer (but nothing special in terms of facilitating)

Weaknesses / Areas of Improvement

• Undersized, Struggles vs. Length

• Lacks Athleticism

• Can he defend NBA point guards? He’s a generous 6-foot, with average athleticism.

• Can he be effective in short, volume-scoring spurts? Or does he need the offense to run through him?

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Strengths

• Shooting Ability

Cotton most appealing skill is his shooting ability. He attempted six 3-pointers per game, and jump shots made up 63% of his half-court offense. He made a respectable 35% of his jumpers, and his .98 points per attempt ranked in the top 34th percentile nationally. He’s comfortable shooting, and from distance.

That being said, Cotton inevitably took some bad shots last year. As Providence’s only scoring option, he jacked up a lot of bad shots. Cotton will have a drastically lower margin of error in the NBA, especially considering his size, so he must prove he can efficiently shoot from the NBA 3-point line.

Nevertheless, Cotton has NBA range, and throughout college he converted difficult shots with ease.

3-Pointers

Cotton shot 37% on 6 three-pointers last season.

Contested Catch-and-Shoot Jumpers

Cotton routinely made jumpers, even if the defense was focused on stopping him. He converted an excellent 40% of his “guarded” attempts, producing 1.198 points per attempt, which ranked in the top 20th percentile nationally.

Contested Off the Dribble Jumpers

Made Free Throws

Cotton shot 85% from the free throw line. Pretty reliable.

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• Ancillary Scoring

Transition

Despite his diminutive frame, Cotton converted a solid 52% of his transition attempts. He can turn on the jets in transition and convert difficult layups.

Runner Makes (penetrating the defense)

Cotton struggles to finish against close-out length, but he can stop-and-rise for a floater if it’s open. This is not a “strength” at the moment, but it’s a facet he will need in order to survive against NBA length.

Spot-Up Driving Makes

• Pick-and-Roll

The majority of Cotton’s offense this season came in the pick-and-roll (23% of offense), where he proved capable of running this NBA-heavy set. Considering he struggles to finish against length, Cotton took advantage of clear driving lanes created by drawing the big man up.

He showcased a mix of hesitations/stutter-steps/burst through the lane on the pick-and-roll. But can he sustain this on the NBA level? It’ll be very difficult.

Changes Direction / Speed

Pick-and-Roll Jumper

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• Solid Passer (but nothing special in terms of facilitating)

Cotton is a solid passer, but in my opinion, he’s nothing special in this regard. I don’t think he makes plays for his teammates. On film, it seems that Cotton is on the court for so long that he inevitably accumulates 6 assists per game.

His numbers are inflated by simple pick-and-pops, swing passes, etc. There’s some threading-the-needle plays, but they’re few and far between. Good passer, but in my eyes, Cotton’s 6 assists per game misrepresent his actual ability.

Transition Assists

“Simple Pass”

To Roll Man/Cutter/Drive-and-Kick

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Weaknesses / Areas of Improvement

• Lacks Athleticism

• Undersized, Struggles vs. Length

Pick-and-Roll – Struggles vs. Length

Transition – Overcompensates (misses)

Will his contortionist approach work in the NBA?

Driving – Can’t finish past the 2nd line of defense

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Short-and-Mid Range Shooting Struggles

Cotton produced 0.7 points per short-range jumper and 0.65 points per mid-range jumper, both average marks at best. He often struggled to convert against the second line of defense. He’s not very explosive or athletic in the lane. He must develop a runner at only 6-foot tall.

Hand-Off / Runners

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Defense

• Can he defend NBA point guards? He’s a generous 6-foot, with average athleticism.

• Can he be effective in short, volume-scoring spurts? Or does he need the offense to run through him? Can he manage an NBA unit?

Providence played zone on approximately 33% of its possessions, but the remaining 67% is telling enough. It’s clear Cotton was a poor defender last season. He stayed upright, lost focus, and struggled to keep his man in front of him. Can he defend NBA point guards? Based on last season, the answer is no.

Too small / Stays upright / Loses focus

Gets beat around screens