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Coaches vs. Cancer Classic (2 Games)

November 22-23 | Barclays Center (Brooklyn, NY)

Adreian Payne — F/C, 6-10, 245
Senior, 23 years old

Season: 17.2 PPG, 8 RPG, 1.5 APG

Outlook: Payne was one of the most dominant players in the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic, scoring from all over the court and occasionally imposing his will. He scored a career-high 29 points vs. Virginia Tech on Friday. though in fairness he faced two teams (Tech and Oklahoma) that lack frontcourt depth.

Standing at 6-10, Payne is a true inside-outside player who can finish around the basket (92%, albeit on 14 total attempts thus far in the season) and also knock-down 3-pointers (47% on 17 attempts). He’s an average defensive rebounder, can run the floor, and has a developing back to the basket game.

The knock against Payne is his age. He’ll be 23 years old at the time of the Draft, so you have to wonder if he’s already realized his ceiling. He lacks natural physicality, and he didn’t appear to have great speed or vertical athleticism in this event.

Simply put, Payne is a big-bodied and versatile floor-spacing threat. If he has in fact reached his ceiling, is that ceiling good enough for to contribute in the NBA?

Post-Up / Around the Basket

Payne is not the strongest player but he is skilled with his back to the basket. Smooth jump hooks, can roam the baseline for alley-oop opportunities, and can dunk if given space. He posted an excellent 1.39 points per possession around the basket last season (93rd percentile), where 40% of his shot attempts came from. My only concern is how Payne—who uses “extension” rather than “athleticism” to score—will deal with NBA length and athleticism in the paint. Stronger and more athletic guys can take him out of position and bump him off the block.

Shooting

Payne’s best attribute is his shooting. He’s shooting 47% from 3-point range, and 35% on overall jump shots this season. Just through observing Payne in warm-ups and over the course of two games, I am sold on his shooting ability (particularly from 3-point range). At 6-10, he has great floor-spacing potential.

Scoring Off Cuts

Payne is nimble to get around screens. He has strong hands to receive the ball in stride and secure it to the hoop.

Needs To Work On…

Transition

Payne is mobile in the open court, and converts at a high rate (77% last season). His biggest strength in transition is his versatility. He can set up anywhere, and score from both the perimeter and interior.

Offensive Rebounding / Put-Backs

Although he averages 8 rebounds per game, Payne hasn’t shown much ability on the offensive glass. He has a total of eight offensive rebounds in six games. When Payne secures an O-rebound, he often goes up for a dunk, which is encouraging. That being said, I still would like to see him be more physical; his current level of strength/physicality probably won’t suffice in the NBA.

OVERALL

Payne may have reached his ceiling in terms of his repertoire, but he can certainly take strides to become more consistent, which should hold some weight for his NBA prospects. He has rare versatility and shooting ability for a 6-10 forward, and occasionally scores with his back-to-the-basket in the post.

Video Breakdown: Adreian Payne

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Strengths:

Great

• Shooting Ability (spacing the floor at 6-foot-10)
• Explosiveness Around the Rim (not the most skilled player, but very athletic/explosive to finish at the rim)

Good

• Developing Post-Up Game
• Rebounding / Passing / Shot-Blocking

Weaknesses / Areas of Improvement:

• Shooting Off the Dribble (putting the ball on the floor)
• Weak Frame* (gets outmuscled offensively and defensively)
• Basketball Instincts (frantic on the perimeter, gets stripped in the paint)
• Age? (23 years old & not much upside left. What you see is probably what you’re getting)

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Strengths:

Great

• Shooting Ability (spacing the floor at 6-foot-10)

41% of Payne’s offensive attempts this season were jump shots, which at 6-10, is very appealing. He shot 34% on jumpers, 42% from 3-point range, and produced an above-average .92 points per jump shot attempt.

Payne provides value as a stretch-5 who can space the defense/knock down shots via the pick-and-pop, as well as catch-and-shoot. At 6-10, he is a top-5 shooter in this draft, regardless of position or size.

Pick and Pop Jumpers

Payne “popped” to the perimeter on 90% of his pick-and-roll attempts this season, lending insight to his comfort shooting the ball. He shot 15-34 (44%) on such attempts, and he looks the part of an athletic stretch-forward at the next level. Payne “pops” by either slipping the screen early, or he can fully commit to the screen, turn his pivot foot and then pop out. Payne’s perimeter shooting ability is what separates him from other players with a 6-10 makeup.

Mechanically-speaking, though, Payne has an awkward shooting form, where he dips the ball very low before bringing it back up for a shot attempt. This was—and should continue to be—problematic when he’s tightly guarded. In fact, he shot a putrid 28% in “guarded” catch-and-shoot attempts last season, compared to shooting 58% on unguarded attempts, and 34% on overall jump shots.

Nevertheless, Payne looks the part of an explosive and athletic stretch-forward, who can make an immediate impact by spacing the floor and knocking down 3-pointers.

Pick and Pop Drives

In addition to knocking down 3-pointers, Payne does a good job attacking close-outs and driving to the hoop. He can get to the basket via one dribble from the perimeter. Payne isn’t skilled creating off the dribble, but he’s dangerous with space (i.e. with a clear lane ahead), which is often the result when defenders attack him at the 3-point line. He can fly through the lane.

Transition Shooting

Payne posted an excellent 1.46 points per transition attempt this season, ranking in the top 5% nationally. His slow release is mildly concerning, but even so, defenses must still locate Payne in transition. Deadeye shooting ability at 6-10.

That being said …

“Guarded” Jump Shots

As mentioned, due to his extraordinarily slow release, Payne shot a putrid 28% in “guarded” catch-and-shoot attempts this season, compared to 58% on “unguarded” attempts and an overall 34% on jump shots. Not only does he have a slow release, but he often hesitates when defenders close-out or stunt, for no apparent reason.

This could be problematic in the NBA, where defenders are more athletic/longer to contest shots. Payne will have to adjust to making shots with a defender in his face, because he won’t get many uncontested looks at the NBA level. Just something to keep in mind.

Free Throws

Payne shot a decent, but not great, 79% on 4.5 free throw attempts last season. He will need to improve in this area.

Missed FTs

Made FTs

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• Explosiveness around the Rim (not the most skilled player, but very athletic/explosive to finish)

Payne finished an excellent 70% of his attempts in the lane this season, and his 1.47 points per attempt ranked in the top 4% nationally. He was automatic at the rim.

He doesn’t have a wide variety of “moves” around the basket—in fact, he doesn’t really have any—but Payne astutely uses his explosiveness/athleticism to finish around the rim. Lots of dunks/aerial jaunts towards the rim. He will dunk over and through opponents in the paint, with a trampoline-like bounce off the floor.

He has a developing back to the basket arsenal, but in terms of finishing directly at the rim, he relies on athleticism, which evidently seems to work. If you give Payne an inch of space, he can effortlessly catch-and-dunk.

Great for drop-off dunks, but not so much for breaking his man down in the paint.

Explosiveness / Athleticism

Cutting

Transition 2s

Payne runs the floor hard, and is a good finisher due to his athleticism and length. If his lungs can hold up (he has a history of asthma, and more recently, mononucleosis), he should be terrific in the open floor. Medical testing in terms of conditioning could be very important, though.

His 1.46 points per transition attempt ranked in the top 5% nationally. He’s a dual threat in transition: he can trail for a 3-pointer, or run the wings and finish above the rim.

Driving from the Perimeter (8-23 this season)

Payne is capable creating offense off the dribble, though he’s definitely not a juggernaut and not very efficient at this point. He has a limited off the bounce game, in the sense that he can use one dribble to create space and attack the basket. But it’s one dribble, and one dribble only.

If a defender can stay in front of him for more than one dribble, Payne will pick up his dribble and lose his balance. I’m not going to knock him, because he possesses a lot of “guard” skills (shooting, running the floor, etc) as a 6-10 forward, but I just want to note that he won’t be shaking his man off the dribble.

He has long strides to receive the ball on the perimeter and get to the hoop in one dribble, but I’m not sure if this one-dribble approach will suffice in the NBA.

Right now, Payne looks the part of a stretch-forward who can a) make shots with his feet set, and b) finalize plays in the paint. Creating off the dribble from the perimeter will be an added bonus.

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Good

• Developing Post-Up Game

Payne must add muscle to hold his own down low in the NBA (explained later). He struggles to contain post position defensively, and struggles to establish position offensively.

That being said, in terms of skill, Payne has flashed a developing post-up arsenal. He converted a very solid 48% in the post this season, and his 1.055 points per post-up attempt ranked in the top 10 percentile nationally. In fact, of 153 players who had a minimum of 120 post-up possessions, Payne’s 1.055 PPP ranked 11th.

Payne makes for a unique option on the block, showing that he’s not just a shooter.

In fact, Payne was strictly a post player when he arrived at Michigan State. He only began shooting 3-pointers as a junior; he attempted a total of one and two 3-pointers during his freshman/sophomore year, respectively. His athleticism, aggressiveness, and shooting touch make him a unique option in the mid to low post.

Post-Up Jumper

He can hit the turn-around jumper.

Post-Up Hook Shot

He has deft touch with either hand, and over either shoulder, in the paint.

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• Rebounding

Defense

Payne was a terrific defensive rebounder this season, securing 22.9% of all his possible defensive rebounds, ranking 78^th nationally.

He has the length, athleticism, and most of all the desire to go and get rebounds, in his area or otherwise. He will put a body on someone down low, or can track down loose balls.

He must add strength, but his effort is apparent.

Offense

Payne’s offensive rebounding numbers regressed this season (2.08 ORPG to 1.54 ORPG), but he appears to be a serviceable offensive rebounder. He must add strength to effectively box-out, but he has the athleticism to corral loose balls. Just needs to be able to fight through resistance and get position in the post.

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• Passing

His numbers aren’t exactly eye-popping (1.3 APG), but on film, Payne seems like a sneaky-good passer below the foul line. If he has an inch of space, he can drop it off to the baseline and effectively play the high-low. Payne’s agility is rare for a big man, and should translate to the NBA.

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• Shot Blocking (Defense)

Payne posted a mediocre 3.8% block percentage this season, and averaged 0.9 BPG. Nothing impressive, but still—his athletic gifts make him a good shot-blocker, especially when playing help defense. He’s not a “rim protector,” but Payne records the occasional block if defending a smaller forward.

Blocks – On Ball

Blocks – Help Defense (off-ball)

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Weaknesses / Areas of Improvement:

• Shooting Off the Dribble (putting the ball on the floor)

Only 3% (14 possessions) of Payne’s offense this season came in isolation situations, and he converted only 3-10. It’s not about the numbers though; on film, it’s clear Payne struggles to put the ball on the floor. He shot 8-23 off the dribble this season as well.

If he receives the ball on the perimeter, he uses one dribble to either rise for a jumper, or leap towards the basket. But if a defender can stay in front of him for more than one dribble, Payne will pick up his dribble and lose his balance. He doesn’t appear to have perimeter “moves”, or the ability to “shake” his man.

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• Weak Frame* (kind of; gets outmuscled offensively and defensively)

Let me first say this: Payne is a pretty good on-ball defender, able to stick with his man moving horizontally, and also elevate to contest/block a lot of shots. He has a pretty good physical make-up at 6-10/245 pounds, and combined with his athletic ability, he can be a force defensively. In fact, he held opponents to 5-21 (24%) around the basket this season, and 16-41 in post-up situations. All is well defensively.

However, it seems like he has a weak base, impacting his ability to create space and fight through stronger players. Offensively, he struggles to establish deep post-up position. Defensively, he is prone to getting outmuscled in the paint. He can stay with guys laterally, but he’s rendered helpless when opposing players establish deep position against him.

I’m not suggesting Payne is a liability on defense, but it’s clear that he gets pushed off his spots and can’t really hold his ground. He must add muscle and get stronger and provide some semblance of defensive resistance in the paint.

Defensive

Offense

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• Basketball Instincts (frantic on the perimeter, gets stripped in the paint)

Payne is not “turnover prone,” per se, but at times his awareness/focus begins to wane. When faced with split-second decisions (shoot or pass, for example), he often hesitates and makes a minus play.

When defenders close-out or stunt toward Payne on the perimeter, he would often panic and throw an ill-advised swing pass. And in the paint, he struggled to recognize when and where help defense was coming from; when the defense collapsed on him, Payne would have his head looking down, and subsequently get stripped.

I’m not sure if you can teach “instincts”, but on film it’s apparent that Payne struggles to read defenses at times.

Frantic on the Perimeter

Gets Stripped in the Paint (defense collapses)