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Texas 74, Baylor 69

Wednesday, February 26, 2014 | Frank Erwin Center (Austin, TX)

Isaiah Austin

Season (27.6 mpg): 11 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 3.2 BPG
44% FG, 32% three-point, 3.9 FTA

— 12.3% block percentage (15th nationally)

Game: 7 pts, 3 ast, 2 rebs, 2blks, 4 fouls
1-10 FG, 0-3 three-point, 5-8 FT

Outlook: A top-10 recruit coming out of high school, Isaiah Austin has some of the best physical tools (relative to position) in all of college basketball.

Austin’s profile starts with his extraordinary physical makeup: 7-1 height, 7-3 wingspan and 9-3 standing reach. He appears tall when viewed on television, but man, it’s something else in person. He’s a gigantic, towering presence on the court, with several implicit advantages. Tall, long, very skinny, and appears to have big hands.

Skill wise, it’s been well documented that Austin possesses “guard skills.” During warm-ups, he displayed a pure jump shot to 18-feet; a tight handle on the perimeter; a quick first step to use that handle; and the ability to pull-up off the dribble. He truly appeared to be a basketball anomaly—a center with the skill set of a shooting guard—and I was excited to see how it would translate in the actual game.

However, by the end of the game, I was more unsettled than excited. Austin had a terrible performance; the gap between his possible upside and current skill level was wide and alarming.

The good: Great physical makeup. 7-1 height, 7-3 wingspan and 9-3 standing reach; not many like him. At his optimum playing ability, Austin’s size and handle make him a matchup nightmare. He’s equipped with a jump shot, and has the body to develop a post game.

The bad: His lack of polish (“raw”) can’t be overstated. It’s to the point you have to wonder if he’ll ever reach his potential.

Where to begin? Let’s start with toughness. I hate to ever question somebody’s toughness—I’m no judge or jury—but there’s no way around it: Austin was soft, timid, and lacked toughness vs. Texas. Watching on film, his performance was a microcosm of his career to date. Got out-muscled for post position, and fumbled the basketball when facing any contact. Austin was repeatedly pushed around by the smaller 6-9, 235-pound Connor Lammert. Weak drives, weak fight, and weak effort rebounding the basketball.

Austin finished 1-10 and scored 7 points. Instead of embracing contact, he shied away, resulting in several off balanced fade-away jump shots. Austin also lacked touch on his driving attempts—he would just fling the ball in the air, with no coordination or intent. On the perimeter, he had a slow release on his jump shot (starts his motion with the ball at his knees).

To his credit, Austin did contribute with a few blocked shots. Good timing and a focused defender. But still, too weak. He was eaten alive by the wide-bodied Cameron Ridley. Austin must get stronger to withstand the “first punch” in the post.

Austin’s blend of towering size and offensive versatility make him immensely intriguing. But a lack of toughness and an unpolished game are equally perplexing.

The statistics confirm Austin’s unrefined game; 5.6 rebounds is unacceptable considering his size and reach. Ditto for attempting only 9 shots per game. Too weak to battle in the post, and not polished enough to make a consistent impact on the perimeter.

Austin has the ingredients to be an NBA player, but at the very minimum, he’s still one year away.

Strengths
— Physical specimen (7-1 height, 7-3 wingspan, 9-3 standing reach)
— Good shot blocker (3.2 BPG; 12.3% block percentage – 15th nationally)
— Large upside
— Shooting and ball handling capabilities for 7-footer
— Benefit of the doubt? (Cory Jefferson and Austin do not compliment each other; Jefferson is an athletic hustle player, not a low post presence)
— Averaged 13 and 8 as a freshman

Defects/Areas of Improvement
— Too weak right now (225 pounds!)
— Lacks physicality and toughness (only 3.8 FTA per game)
— Lacks polish on perimeter (long wind-up on shot; shooting 30% on 3′s, 28% on jumpers)
— Shies away from contact
— Goes up for layups, not dunks
— Physically wouldn’t last in the NBA at this point
— Legally blind out of one eye (also a “strength”; certainly shows toughness and willpower)

Video

7 points vs. Texas

Misses vs. Texas (1-10 FG)

3-Point Shooting (poor)

Poor Driving Skills (what is he doing?)

“Short Range” struggles

— Lacks polish

04/30/14

Video Breakdown: Isaiah Austin

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Strengths

• Rare Size and Length
• Inside-Outside Potential (shooting & posting up as a 7-footer)
• Blocks
• Rebounding Potential

Rare Size and Length

Standing 7-1 with a 7-3 wingspan, Isaiah Austin has rare size and length for a center. With great size, decent mobility, and—if it works out—the potential to add considerable strength, Austin’s combination of height, length and mobility are rarely seen, even at the NBA level. In flashes throughout college, Austin showed skills from every spot on the court—from handling the ball on the perimeter to shooting 3-pointers to dissecting opponents with a polished post-up game.

Austin has one of the most unique and enticing skill-sets in college basketball. However, at around just 225 pounds, Austin is exceedingly skinny and, frankly, extremely weak right now. His lack of muscle/strength/weight correlates highly with his inability to hold post position, finish through contact, rebound in traffic (even with a 7-3 wingspan), and defend stronger players. Austin has mediocre foot speed defensively, which is accentuated by his scrawny build. As of right now, Austin doesn’t have the foot speed or strength to compete down low in the NBA.

Obviously, Austin is very young (20 years old), so he is moldable and certainly not a finished product. Even at only 225 pounds, his 12% block percentage this season was 16th best nationally, showing good instincts and timing, in addition to doubling his per-40 minute block rate. But his rebounding numbers regressed, and he must substantially improve his frame while maintaining mobility in order to stick in the NBA.

Austin has very versatile (and rare for his size) scoring, shot-blocking and rebounding potential. He doesn’t possess great court vision (literally speaking, and basketball-wise), though he’s shown capable of passing out of double-teams. Adding weight and becoming consistent in his shooting/post-ups are of paramount importance, and it’s no guarantee he will develop said consistency or muscle. But it’s very difficult to find 7-1 centers with Austin’s inside-outside upside. He provides rare upside as a shooter, post scorer and shot blocker. As mentioned, Austin is certainly a project right now and has a long way to go, but his physical tools lends towards intriguing upside, and in the right system, Austin could possibly blossom quicker than most expect.

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Inside-Outside Potential (rare at 7-1)

Let me be clear: Austin is not a reliable or efficient scorer right now, and he may never develop the necessary consistency to excel in the NBA (his FG%, 3P% and TS% didn’t improve as a sophomore). But he’s capable shooting from the perimeter, facing up in the mid post, and very skilled in the low post. He could have the total offensive package, which is extremely uncommon at 7-1.

Shot Attempt Distribution and Efficiency this season:

26% Jump Shots – 32% FG, .85 PPP (41st percentile nationally)

44% Facing Up Around the Basket – 53% FG, 1.09 PPP (47th percentile)

25% Post-Up – 45% FG, .95 PPP (57th percentile)

Perimeter Skills / Outside Game

67% of Austin’s jump shot attempts came from 3-point range, where he shot 27.7% on 1.7 attempts last season. He has the making of a 3-point jumper, and is very solid with his feet set when open. In fact, on film it seems that—with the exception of one-dribble pull ups—almost all of Austin’s 3-point attempts this season are of the catch-and-shoot variety. Continuing to improve his 3-point jumper will be beneficial for him as an NBA prospect, as this skill plays a big role in distinguishing himself and impacting games. If Austin never develops the strength to bang down low, he needs to at least be able to shoot.

3-Pointers (mostly catch-and-shoot; potential)

Pick-and-Pop

14.5% of Austin’s shot attempts this season came as a pick-and-roll screener. He “popped” on 67% of those attempts, while “rolling” on 33%. Furthermore, 25 of his 35 pick-and-pop attempts were of the shooting variety. Austin can attack close-outs and open driving lanes, with potential to be a dual threat on the pick-and-pop.

He can space the floor, but also drive when the defense switches. Not very quick or fluid, but he seemed to make it work on the college level.

Mobility / Perimeter Skills (perimeter drives, jump shots)

Austin is developing as a ball-handler, and is fairly mobile from the perimeter. If he’s going to settle for jump shots (which he does sometimes), Austin is at least showing he can hit jumpers and score off the bounce.

Interior Game

Austin has a variety of post moves—good touch with both hands, can make jump hooks/running hooks, turnaround jumpers, and converts over either shoulder. He’s also difficult to block due to length.

He’s not very efficient (converted 45% in back-to-the-basket situations, and 53% around the basket), but his skill-set and potential are apparent. If Austin can add muscle, his already-soft touch will be even more dangerous on the low block.

Hook Shots

Catch-and-Go-Up / Alley-Oops

Turnaround Jumpers (impressive)

Drop-Step Finishes

Runner Through the Lane

Cutting Baseline

19% of Austin’s offense came in the form of “cutting” this season, where he converted a decent 56%. He is particularly effective cutting along the baseline, where he can catch the ball in close proximity to the basket and simultaneously rise above the defense. He’s constantly in motion without the basketball and is fairly mobile.

Passing out of Double-Teams

Although only recorded 2 assists per 40 minutes, Austin is a capable passer when facing double-teams.

And-Ones (finishes through contact … sometimes)

Austin doesn’t embrace contact for the most part, but for the sake of a full evaluation, here are some of his 15 and-ones this season. He mostly finishes over shorter defenders, and doesn’t really absorb contact, but still.

In 38 games, Austin had 15 and-ones. In 29 games, Joel Embiid had 17. He needs to be more aggressive and assertive.

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Shot-Blocking

Austin has shown good timing and shot-blocking instincts. He blocked 12% of all available shots when on the court this season, which ranked 12th best in the country, in addition to averaging 3.1 BPG. He needs to add strength to maintain position and block shots at the next level, but still—despite being legally blind in his right eye, Austin has the requisite coordination to block shots and accumulate deflections. Impressive.

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Rebounding Potential (uses hands and length well, but not a consistent rebounder)

Austin struggles to secure position down low and box out. However, by sheer virtue of his size and length, he can occasionally reach to get offensive rebounds and finish put-backs.

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Weaknesses / Areas of Improvement

• Inconsistent (shooting, finishing, rebounding)
• Weak Frame
• Rebounding
• On-Ball Defense

Inconsistent

Austin finished his college career on a strong note, scoring in double-figures in his last seven games. But his production (nominally and efficiency-wise) was for the most part volatile and inconsistent. When I saw him live vs. Texas on 2/26, he shot 1-10 with 7 points. Austin’s game is all about catching lightning in a bottle right now; he flashes intriguing potential, but consistency is an issue. He’s shooting 32% on jump shots, and only around 48% in the paint.

He needs to continue developing his body (to score down low) and jump shot. Good shooter, but not quite “knockdown.” He’s also only a 68% free throw shooter.

Catch-and-Shoot Missed 3′s

27% from 3-point range this season. He bring his shot down on his release, which is fairly slow and exaggerated to begin with.

Step-Back Missed 3′s

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Weak Frame

Austin clearly struggles with contact at the rim. He can’t bang inside or establish post-up position offensively, and he can’t hold his ground defensively. He gets bulldozed trying to defend bigger (and not necessarily taller) players.

Weak finisher, poor offensive spacing due to continuously starting post-ups on the perimeter, and he can’t hold his ground defensively.

There is no guarantee Austin will be able to compete down low if his body doesn’t fill out. Also, was his labrum surgery at the end of last season a byproduct of his weak frame? Can he remain healthy? All legitimate question marks.

Poor Post-Up Position / Gets Outmuscled

Poor Finisher, Struggles Through Contact

Gets Blocked (not very explosive)

Weak Hands / Poor Coordination

Not Very Explosive or Intense

In addition to a weak frame, Austin isn’t the most vertically explosive or bouncy athlete. This makes it even more important that he develops a “mean streak” of some sort. He has obvious upside, but none of that upside can be cultivated if he doesn’t want it bad enough. I’m in no position to question or judge his competitive spirit, but Austin has the type of skill-set that’ll only be maximized with a sickening work ethic and desire to keep improving, as well as being more aggressive every night.

Not easy to judge or predict his competitive spirit, and impossible to teach. He needs to compete better for points and rebounds—he needs a mean streak and a fire in his belly. I’m not questioning his toughness; just thinking out-loud.

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Rebounding Struggles (byproduct of weak frame)

Austin struggles to corral rebounds at this point. Instead, he incessantly attempts tip-ins. This technique probably won’t last in the NBA. He needs to use his length/reach in concert with a strong box-out technique. Can’t just rely on tipping-in basketballs at 7-1, especially if stronger players can back him to the perimeter.

Austin’s 8.7% offensive rebounding percentage ranked 445th nationally, while he grabbed only 3.3 defensive rebounds per game. Obviously not very good.

Tip-ins (instead of securing rebounds)

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On-Ball Defense

Austin struggles to hold his own vs. stronger players, offensively and defensively. He can’t hold a spot in the post, let alone establish position.

Offensively, this leads to post-ups starting way too far outside, hurting team spacing and eliminating any realistic post-up attempt.

Defensively, this contributes to Austin getting bulldozed in the post, getting sealed off on rebounds, and getting sealed out of positions to protect the rim.

Adding considerable strength, while maintaining his mobility and jump shooting, are of paramount importance in Isaiah Austin’s development. He must get stronger.

Gets Outmuscled in the Paint; Gives up Post Position and Rebounds

Gets Beat off the Dribble