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Big East Tournament Semifinals

March 14, 2014 | Madison Square Garden (New York, NY)

Providence, Seton Hall, Creighton, Xavier

Game 1:Providence 80, Seton Hall 74
Game 2: Creighton 86, Xavier 78

Doug McDermott — SF, 6-8, 225
Senior, 22 years old

Season (33.4 mpg): 27 PPG, 7 RPG, 1.6 APG
53% FG, 46% three-point (6 attempts)

Game (39 min): 32 PTS, 4 REB, 1 AST, 0 BLK, 0 STL
10-20, 2-6 three-point, 10-10 FT

Outlook: This was my first time observing McDermott live, and I think most of his strengths/potential weaknesses were transparent.

Firstly, McDermott gives 100% effort at all times, on both ends of the court. He’s always moving on offense—picking and popping, running off screens, or traversing the court to find gaps in the defense. He’s relentless in getting open to receive the basketball, and has the stamina to endure a 40-minute war. The guy is literally running off the ball for 25 seconds every possession.

Once he gets the ball, McDermott is probably the most prolific scorer I’ve seen this season (on the college level). Facing up on the perimeter or backing down in the post, he has an effortless and picture-perfect jump shot. And he’s accurate. He can shoot over smaller defenders, but his work against bigger players caught my eye. Equipped with a Dirk Nowitzki-esque fade away (pictured above; where Dirk leans backward to a 45-degree angle, kicks one leg up while holding his ground with a plant foot, and somehow gets his shot off), McDermott got his shot off all evening long.

To be fair, Xavier doesn’t feature a player taller than 6-9, but still—McDermott received the ball at the foul line, lowered his shoulder into the defense, and faded-away over two defenders. He wasn’t playing against NBA length, but McDermott made shots with the defense draped all over him. He handles the ball with either hand, and needs only an inch of separation to get his shot off. He can create that space with step-backs, jab steps and pump fakes. He didn’t appear to have a particularly quick first step, but he doesn’t really need one. He averages 27 points, and is flirting with the 50/40/90 club. He’s smart, scores the ball in a variety of ways, and has terrific anticipatory skills to give him a two-second advantage on offense. Extremely accurate shooter, with 6-8 size and a quick release.

I’m curious/concerned to see if he can withstand the wear and tear of an NBA season. McDermott works very hard to get his shot on the college level; I wonder if he can sustain the constant, arduous off ball movement and physicality. Maybe he’ll just stray the perimeter and shoot 3′s in the NBA.

Rebounding-wise, McDermott is a capable of grabbing boards, but he won’t be rebounding through traffic at the next level.

While McDermott’s activity and energy is a boon to his offensive game, it caused some problems in evaluating his defensive ability. Firstly, McDermott wasn’t matched against NBA talent. Secondly, Xavier didn’t isolate him in ball screens or in the half court, so it was difficult to evaluate his lateral movement. Not the quickest feet, so I suspect he’ll struggle to contain penetration in the NBA. I anticipate he’ll exclusively play the perimeter in the NBA, but in all honesty, his perimeter defense was hard to grasp in this game.

Video

32 points vs. Xavier

Misses vs. Xavier (10-20)

Video Breakdown: Doug McDermott

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Strengths:

• Excellent Shooter. Will be among NBA’s most accurate shooters from day one.
• Cutting / Off the Ball Activity. McDermott was a prolific scorer in college, in no small part due to his effort and constant motion with or without the basketball.
• Developing Post-Up Game
• Free Throw Shooting (86%)

Weaknesses / Areas of Improvement:

• Defensive Potential. Is he stuck between the 3 and the 4 defensively?
• Lack of Explosiveness. Slow off the dribble, struggles vs. length/finishing at the rim.
• Weak Frame. Post scoring, missed rebounds.

Overall, if placed on the “right” team, I think McDermott’s strengths outweigh his weaknesses. His shooting ability should immediately translate to the NBA. He has limitless range with a vast arsenal of moves—he automatically draws defenders out to the perimeter, which if nothing else, will space the floor and get teammates open. He pours in shots, and based on what I’ve seen, there’s no reason McDermott can’t have a Kyle Korver/Klay Thompson-like jump shot. McDermott’s already-established shooting ability is what many of his peers strive for.

McDermott has a specialized skill and a defined role. And that skill—shooting—is among the most valuable assets in the NBA.

He’ll make shots, either via the catch, pick-and-roll, or fading-away. He’s skilled at using cuts, fakes and screens to get open, and he will always draw defenders and open up the floor because of his shooting ability. He was a top-5 scorer in the history of college basketball (26.7 PPG on 64% TS), and his shooting ability will translate to the NBA. You could leave him on the wing and ask him to solely shoot 3′s, or you could run him off screens, or you could use him as a screener on the pick-and-pop.

His biggest question mark/weakness is on the defensive end. McDermott will never be a juggernaut defensively, but I think he could survive on this end. He has a good stance and lateral movement, and he plays very hard. He’s just not very quick. I guess I’m hoping he can learn his individual matchup nightly, and sag off/play his man tight as necessary. It won’t be easy defensively—and it’s possible this could be his downfall—but McDermott projects as an excellent role player due to his perimeter shooting. Scoring in the post will be difficult, but McDermott has the skills the step in and help almost any NBA team to space the floor and make shots.

Strengths

• Excellent Shooter. Will be among NBA’s most accurate shooters from day one.
• Efficient and effective: 26.7 PPG, 64% TS, 53% FG, 45% from 3-point range (6 attempts), Scored 1.22 PPP on all jump shots.
• Can run off screens, catch-and-shoot, create off the dribble, and convert very difficult shooting angles. Limitless range
• McDermott already has NBA range off the catch. His shooting touch alone could make him an immediate contributor from day one
• Not much of a driver due to slow feet, but he has good mechanics on the move and can get into shooting motion without hesitation. Pick and pop potential as well

40% of McDermott’s attempts this season were of the jump shot variety, where he converted 44% and posted 1.22 points per attempt (95th percentile).

Catch-and-Shoot 3-Pointers

Shooting Off Screens (54% FG, 1.44 PPP)

He does a good job coming off screens ready to catch and shoot.

Dirk Nowitzki Fade-away

Beautiful move. Will this work in the NBA? Can he use it to compensate for lack of athleticism?

Off the Dribble Moves (step backs, pump fakes, attacking close-outs, etc)

Pick-and-Roll Pull-Up

Pick-and-Pop

Transition

Runs the floor well, gives great effort. Capable of running the floor into a spot in the post, or run the wings/trail for 3-pointers.

Runs the floor

Transition 3-pointers

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• Cutting / Off the Ball Activity. McDermott was a prolific scorer throughout college, in no small part due to his effort and constant motion with or without the basketball.
• Great off the ball movement. Senses gaps in the defense, gets there, and has a supersonic release to get his shot off. Scored 1.446 PPP on cuts this season, ranking 3rd nationally (min of 100 possessions)
• Most of the time, the defense knows McDermott is getting the ball and still cannot stop him. He’s constantly running off screens, into gaps, and just always moving around with his head on a swivel. Excellent shooting touch is accentuated by his ability to catch-and-shoot on the move. He’s crafty inside the paint, but also from 3-point range.
• Plays very hard on both ends. Has a winner’s mentality
• “Playing hard” is also apparent on the offensive glass. Not very athletic and he misses a lot of rebounds, but he managed to grab 7 RPG due to effort and awareness.

Screen / Flash Cuts

27-30 on flash cuts this season (90%)

Basket Cuts

Perimeter Drives

Only 9.2% of McDermott’s possessions were in isolation situations, but he posted a respectable .96 points per attempt, and converted 44%. He’s an average ball handler, but he can hit shots at various angles, including layups. Obviously, it will be very difficult to consistently finish below the rim in the NBA.

Offensive Rebounding

McDermott grabbed a decent-but-not-great 7 rebounds per 40 minutes. He does a good job tracking missed shots, but McDermott lacks the strength to clear out his area, and the reach to corral rebounds. Active for tip-ins, though.

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• Developing Post-Up Game.
• Will be more difficult in the NBA, but he scored 1.03 PPP and shot 50% in the post this season. McDermott isn’t going to isolate his man in the post, but he can use either hand, and has a quick release.
• Good base, strong footwork, and has several countermoves.
• That being said, he’s not great taking his man off the dribble in face-up situations, and his physical make-up is the main cause for concern in the post.
• But he has the shooting touch to get his shot off and score with minimal separation.

Fade-away / Turnaround Jumpers in the Post

Hook Shots

Can use either hand.

Layups / Hook-Arounds in the Post

Up-and-Unders

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• Free Throw Shooting

86% on 6 attempts per game. Excellent.

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Weaknesses / Areas of Improvement:

• Defensive Potential. Is he stuck between defending the 3 and the 4?
• Lack of foot speed causes him to get beat on the perimeter (guarding 3s)
• Lack of strength and athleticism causes him to get beat in the post (guarding 4s). Also struggles with defensive rebounding in the post.
• He has good defensive awareness and is capable of being a good help defender, but he’s limited physically. 6-8, short wingspan, and although he’s mobile, McDermott is kind of “pudgy.”
• Again: Is he stuck between the 3 and 4 defensively?

Perimeter Defense (slow)

Post Defense (weak)

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• Lack of Explosiveness.
• Not explosive off the dribble, struggles to finish drives at the basket.
• Has a chance to get by his man because shooting ability naturally draws out defenders to the perimeter, but he’s an average ball handler and doesn’t get off the ground well. Will struggle to finish over length.
• He can compensate with a variety of shots (fade-aways, step-backs, etc), but he will presumably struggles to break down NBA wings. Can his shooting prowess compensate? Can he just stand around and be a knockdown shooter? I believe so.

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• Weak Frame (post scoring)
• Not very strong or long to score in the post. Was effective in college, but he struggles vs. length and size.
• Also struggles on the offensive and defensive glass. Doesn’t have strength to clear out his man, and lacks the necessary reach to corral the ball.

Weak Post-Ups

Missed Defensive Rebounds