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Texas 74, Baylor 69

Wednesday, February 26, 2014 | Frank Erwin Center (Austin, TX)

Cory Jefferson

Season (28 mpg): 13.2 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 1 APG, 1.4 BPG
51% FG, 65% FT

— 18.5 points, 12 rebounds, 2 blocks per 40 min (has the motor to play 40 min)

Game: 14 pts, 12 rbs, 2 ast, 2 blks
6-14 FG, 2-6 FT

*Fifth-year senior (redshirted in the 2010-11 season)

Outlook: Standing at 6-9 with a 7-foot wingspan, Jefferson has always been a freak athlete in the open court. But now, he’s showing signs of a developing half-court game.

A 220-pound power forward, he provides energy, activity and explosion on offense; and length and rebounding on defense. Though he often sets up in the post, Jefferson is best suited as a slasher. He has quick feet to spin off defenders, and is explosive to quickly bounce off the ground. Jefferson is excellent at finalizing plays, in transition and half court. He is also a hungry rebounder, with the proper length and activity to garner tip-ins and put backs.

That said, he must do more than just “finalize plays” if he wants to make the NBA. Now in his fifth season at Baylor, Jefferson is still without a reliable post game. Has he maxed out offensively?

As mentioned, he has a variation of spin moves, but lacks an offensive repertoire. No go-to moves. You can’t feed Jefferson in the post, and he doesn’t have the touch to shoot from outside. He’ll occasionally attempt a mid-range or 3-point jumper, but not with consistency. He’s 26-71 on jumpers this season (36%), and 10-26 from 3-point range. Obviously not reliable.

There are concerns defensively as well. With a skinny, 220-pound frame, Jefferson may have difficulty defending NBA power forwards. Jefferson and Isaiah Austin were obliterated by the bulkier Cameron Ridley in this game. Also, he is an unproven pick and roll defender. He’s more athletic than instinctual, but he will need to refine his instincts to be a steady hustle/energy type of player.

Even without a clearly defined skill set, Jefferson could contribute with rebounding, energy and athleticism. If you believe he can defend NBA power forwards—and I’m honestly not sure at this point—his athleticism and decent touch could provide ancillary value in the NBA.

Video

14 points vs. Texas

Misses vs. Texas (6-14)

Rebounds/Put-Backs

Video Breakdown: Cory Jefferson

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Strengths

• 6-9 power forward with a 7-foot wingspan.
• Powerful finisher; explosive around the rim and quick in the open floor
• Developing offensive skill-set: Mid-range jump shot and various post-up moves
• Physical forward who finishes around the rim, but also very fast in transition
• Still raw, but developing. Length and athleticism—combined with developing shooting touch and aggressive motor—give Jefferson the look of an NBA player. His elite athleticism sets him apart from other players with a similar skill-set.

Elite Athleticism

Catching Lobs / Alley-Oops

Jefferson is a great lob target, both in transition and half court. Finishes above the rim on the break, or rolling to the basket.

Transition

Only 3.6% of Jefferson’s offense this season came in transition, but those numbers don’t hold weight. On film, it’s clear Jefferson is tantalizing in the open court. He’s quick, takes long strides, and explodes off the ground.

Even in a small sample size, his 1.5 points per possession ranked in the 97th percentile nationally. He can finalize plays at the rim.

Attacking the Rim / Finishing Around the Basket

Getting the job done around the rim is Jefferson’s bread and butter.

He finished an outstanding 70% of his attempts in the paint this season, and his 1.43 points per attempt ranked in the 94th percentile of all players. On film, it’s clear why—he’s explosive and powerful, with strength to finish through contact. Jefferson is an excellent target to finish drop-off passes. Strong hands to gather the ball, and explosive bounce to finish at the rim.

On a similar note, Jefferson finished 73% of his “cutting” attempts this season. He’s very good at sensing gaps around the basket for alley-oops and drop-offs. This should immediately translate to the NBA. If he doesn’t score, he’ll usually at least get to the free throw line. Out of 74 players with a minimum of 80 cutting possessions, Jefferson’s ranks 16th with a 26.4% free throw rate.

Perimeter Shooting

In the half court, 12.5% of Jefferson’s offense this season came as a pick-and-roll screener, finishing a decent 41% of his attempts.

He’s good rolling to the basket, but the next step is polishing a 15-foot jumper. Jefferson finished 61% of his “rolling” attempts this season; conversely, he finished only 38% of his “pop” attempts.

Being able to pick-and-pop will space the defense, and distinguish Jefferson as more than just a freak athlete.

Rolling to the basket

Jefferson is a great lob target when rolling to the basket. If the defender hedges on the screen for even a second, Jefferson becomes a prime lob target.

Pick-and-Pop Jumpers / Mid-Range Shooting

10-29 on pick-and-pop jumpers the season (34%), and his .89 points per attempts ranked in the 42nd percentile nationally. Right now, nearly all of Jefferson’s overall jump shots are of the catch-and-shoot variety (only 15 attempts “off the dribble” this season).

Good screener, but if Jefferson hesitates for even a second, his shooting rhythm is gone. At 23 years old, the question is whether Jefferson can continue to polish his jump shot.

3-Point Shooting

Believe it or not, Jefferson showcased a semi-reliable 3-point jumper this season. He went 14-38, after going a combined 3-12 in his previous three seasons.

Jefferson can knock down the 3-pointer if left open. Again, it’s mostly catch-and-shoot, but he has a confident and high release point, which makes for upside, even at 23 years old.

Developing Post-Up Game

The majority of Jefferson’s attempts (31%) were in the form of post-ups, where he converted a decent 41% and scored an average .84 points per possessions. Jefferson doesn’t have many post moves, but he’s shown the framework of a back-to-the-basket arsenal, starting with sound footwork and a good seal. He uses jump hooks to finish over either shoulder, but similar to his jump shot, he hasn’t displayed consistency.

As of right now, if a “quick move” such as a jump hook or face-up jumper is not available, Jefferson will struggle. While he has good footwork, at only 225 pounds Jefferson struggles to establish position and create space down low. He must get stronger to actually get to the basket instead of settling for short jumpers. He can’t solely rely on his motor at the NBA level.

Jefferson exclusively uses his right hand to finish, and always picks up his handle after one or two dribbles. He’s able to pin his man and play bigger than his 225 frame, but he doesn’t have a consistent arsenal at this point. Jefferson lacks polish and strength in the post, but he doesn’t appear to be too far away.

Right Shoulder Moves

Left Shoulder Moves

Post Pins

Face-Up (not great)

Rebounding

Jefferson led Baylor in both offensive and defensive rebounds this season, despite playing alongside Ricardo Gathers and Isaiah Austin. His length and mobility allow him to track down rebounds and go strong after the ball. Jefferson can tip or gather balls, and he does a great job of keeping the ball high after getting a rebound. He can start the fast break with either tip-outs or by grabbing a rebound and passing to the outlet man.

He must get stronger, but Jefferson posted double-digit rebounds per 40 minutes every year in college, and has the physical profile to back it up. Not a stellar rebounder, but he should be solid.

Defensive Rebounding

Offensive Rebounds

Great athlete, strong hands, and very active to clean up on the glass.

Blocks / Post Defense

If Jefferson can get stronger, his length and athleticism make for a good defensive post presence. 1.3 blocks per game this season, as well as 1.9 per game as a junior, is a testament to the impact he can have defensively, both on-ball and playing help D.

Jefferson has a solid base for a post defender overall, but his footwork and strength need improvement. The key is being able to force his man away from the basket, and improving his awareness to maximize his shot-blocking ability. Right now, he’s too weak to defend NBA centers, and maybe not disciplined enough to stay with crafty power forwards. This was difficult to evaluate because Jefferson played zone on 63% of his possessions, but a lack of strength was still apparent.

Weaknesses / Areas of Improvement

• Weak Frame (220 pounds will not suffice as an NBA power forward, especially on defense. Can’t maintain post position)
• Poor Handle / Picks up dribble
• Shooting Inconsistency (no guarantee his offensive game will materialize)
• Free Throw Shooting (64% on 5.6 attempts)
• Already 23 years old

Shooting Inconsistency

Although Jefferson has improved as a shooter throughout college, he still has a lot of work to do. Most importantly, he needs to work on keeping his dribble alive; namely, taking a dribble or two to get a better look. Right now, he doesn’t recognize where defenders are coming from, and he freezes up against defensive resistance. He must polish his jumper, but also learn how to compose himself when he takes a dribble. Any hesitation ruins his shooting rhythm.

Face-Up (not great)

Missed Short-and-Mid-Range Jumpers

Jefferson went 13-43 on short-range jumpers this season, and 6-20 from mid-range. He gets square to the basket and has a high release point, but he doesn’t have a consistent shooting rhythm at this point.

Missed 3-Pointers
— 14-38 from the college 3-point line this season

Poor Handle / Picks up Dribble

As mentioned, Jefferson doesn’t recognize where defenders are coming from, and he freezes up against defensive resistance. He also has a very poor handle when attacking from the perimeter. He has tunnel vision, and incessantly tries to force his way to the basket. Jefferson’s current strategy on the perimeter is, “one dribble and then take off.”

But far too often, Jefferson takes off into nowhere.

Off the Dribble Shooting Struggles

Free Throw Shooting

As of right now, Jefferson is a poor free throw shooter. He converted 64% on 5.6 free throw attempts per game this season.