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North Carolina 93, Louisville 84

Sunday, November 24, 2013 | Mohegan Sun Arena (Uncasville, CT)

Russ Smith — G, 6-0, 165
Senior, 23 years old

Season (27 mpg): 17.8 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 4.8 APG, 46% field goal percentage, 6.8 three-point attempts per game

Game: 36 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists

Outlook: Smith had a terrific game, scoring 11 points in the first five minutes, and ultimately finishing with 36 points. He is fearless lead guard, with a smooth handle and the ability to consistently convert difficult shots.

But how does he translate to the NBA? On one hand, he’s an undersized lead guard, with no true position. Plus, in the NBA, he will face elite size and athleticism every night, which will make it difficult for him to even get his shot off. Also, can he guard NBA point guards? He’s already 23 years old, and not there yet defensively—his defensive rating of 88.8 last season was the least efficient among all Louisville guards.

Those on the other end of the spectrum—including Louisville coach Rick Pitino—say Smith will be even more effective in the NBA, where the League’s shorter shot clock is conducive to Smith’s style of play. This line of thinking is, Why can’t Smith provide value as a change-of-pace scorer off the bench?

Video: 36 points vs. UNC

STRENGTHS

TRANSITION

Smith is very dangerous in transition, where he has a quick release on his jump shot, and very fast end-to-end speed. He also has exceptional body control, and can finish layups at ridiculous angles. He gets to the rim at will, though he needs to finish with more consistency. This is evidenced on film, but also by Smith’s 1.13 points per play in transition, which ranks in the 59th percentile among all players.

PICK-AND-ROLL SCORING

Smith has been very effective scoring off the pick and roll this season, converting 52% of his attempts. His 1.18 PPP in pick-and-roll situations ranks in the 92nd percentile, and on film, it’s evident why. With an inch of separation coming around a screen, Smith can pull-up for a three-pointer or take it into the lane where—as previously mentioned—he can convert difficult layups.

However, lacking elite athleticism Smith will presumably struggle to get separation on the pick and roll in the NBA. He may need to adapt his game to pass out of the pick and roll with more precision. Small sample size, but he looked good against UNC.

COURT VISION (THIS SEASON)

Smith’s assist numbers are at an all-time high this season. He’s averaging 4.8 assists per game, and his 38% assist percentage ranks 18th in the country. Smith is always looking for his teammates, and isn’t as prone to force a shot against double-teams as he was in the past. Smith will still attack those double-teams, but he seems to be reading the play with a higher IQ and savvy. It’s early in the season, but Smith has two games with 5-plus assists, already matching his total from a season ago.

NEEDS TO IMPROVE

DEFENDING SHOOTERS

Smith often struggled to contain shooters last season. His 1.1 PPP allowed on jump shots ranked in the bottom 15th percentile nationally. Smith is prone to gambling in passing lanes, and considering his small stature, he has no margin for error on defense. His lack of size and length gives opposing guards a clear view to shoot over him.

FINISHING AT THE RIM

Smith’s diminutive size, skinny frame and lack of athleticism make it difficult for him to finish through contact. He ranked in the bottom 70th percentile in finishing around the rim last season. Smith needs to put on weight first and foremost, and then work on attacking only if there is an opening in the lane. He won’t last if he comes into the NBA forcing shots and attacking the rim with “tunnel vision.” Smith needs to tone it down a bit.

3-POINT SHOOTING

Smith has an alarming tendency to jack up 3′s early in possessions. This is problematic. He essentially freezes out his teammates and takes his team out of rhythm at the same time. Mechanically, his form is inconsistent. Due to small size, he often attempts off-balance shots, struggling to even get a clear look at the basket.

Smith is currently shooting 33% from 3-point range, averaging 6.8 three-point attempts per game, the most attempts in his career. He can knock 3-pointers when he’s “on”, but like the rest of his game, Smith is streaky in this regard. Already 23 years old, Smith needs to be more prudent in his shot selection.

Louisville 83, Rutgers 76

Saturday, January 4, 2014 | RAC (Piscataway, NJ)

Russ Smith — G, 6-0, 165
Senior, 23 years old

Season (28 mpg): 18 PPG, 4.8 APG, 3.1 RPG

Game: 22 points, 4 rebounds, 1 assist, 5 turnovers

Outlook: A solid performance for Smith, in terms of scoring the basketball. He was only 4-11 from the field, but he accumulated 16 free throw attempts. Smith finished in transition, converted mid-range jumpers, and finished near the basket. His scoring ability was on display, though it was against the 238th-ranked defense.

Smith averages nearly five assists per game, and his 34.5% assist rate ranks 35th in the country. His improved assist numbers (2.9 APG in 30 MPG last year; 4.8 APG in 28 MPG this year), combined with proven pick-and-roll ability, prompts the thought of Smith playing point guard in the NBA. Smith is still erratic at times, but he’s obviously made a concentrated effort to become more of a point guard, which is a step in the right direction if nothing else.

Video: Points vs. Rutgers

Video Breakdown: Russ Smith

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Where/How Does He Fit?

Russ Smith is not a traditional point guard, in the sense that he often doesn’t make the “fundamental play” within the offense. Instead, he’s a very fast guard who could provide a consistent scoring punch off the bench. He has supersonic speed, is proficient running the pick-and-roll, and may be the fiercest in-your-face defender in all of college basketball. Smith is already 23 years old, but he provides consistent volume scoring and on-ball defense. He’s a two-way spark plug, and could provide value as an ancillary guard on a contending team.

There are questions about how Smith will fit in the NBA—namely, he’s not a great athlete (struggles to finish over length at the rim), and has an erratic jump shot. But he brings some relatively rare qualities to the table.

He plays with immense heart and palpable toughness, and is a gifted playmaker in transition/on the pick-and-roll. His jump shot is a bit erratic, but he’s a big-time shot maker, and likewise can finish with burst and acrobatics at the basket. There’s no guarantee he will fit in the NBA, and he doesn’t look like a starter, but Smith can be a valuable (and increasingly rare) change-of-pace guard. He can score, then score again and again.

Smith’s excellent speed, pick-and-roll ability, and defense warrant NBA consideration as a backup point guard. Strong work ethic and New York toughness are evident in his competitive spirit.

For the sake of comparison, Smith reminds me of, say, a mix between Ty Lawson and Darren Collison.

Strengths:

• Supersonic Speed / Change-of-Pace Point Guard
• Excellent Pick-and-Roll
• Court Vision
• Ancillary Scoring Ability
• On-Ball Defense
• Heart / Competitive Spirit

Weaknesses / Areas of Improvement:

• Pick-and-Roll Defense
• Finishing Ability
• Off the Dribble Shooting
• Turnovers

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Strengths:

• Supersonic Speed

• Smith’s best attribute is elite end-to-end speed. He can probably outrun any player in the country. He’s not the best vertical athlete, but he uses his speed to get ahead/blow by defenders.
• Lethal in transition. Nearly 25% of Smith’s offense came in transition, where he shot 61% and posted a solid 1.15 points per attempt, ranking in the top 65th percentile nationally. Quick, crafty, and a gifted scorer in the open floor.

Speed

Smith can beat anybody in a race to the basket.

Open Court Athleticism

Acrobatic Finishes in Transition

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• Excellent Pick-and-Roll

• Pick-and-Roll is the foundation of Smith’s game – he ran it 32% of the time, and converted 47% of his attempts.
• “Turns the corner” and gets into the teeth of the defense, where he can score or create for teammates. Can shoot the jumper, pull-up for the floater, take it all the way, or find teammates.
• Can score (47% FG, .88 PPP), or facilitate (1.13 points per pick-and-roll assist attempt, ranking in the top 80th percentile nationally). Finds teammates with timing and accuracy on the go.
• Not very skilled breaking his man down in ISO, but terrific creating on the pick-and-roll.

Pick-and-Roll Jumper

Out of 80 players with a minimum of 50 pick-and-roll possessions, Smith’s 1.08 points per pick-and-roll jumper ranks 18th. He shot a solid 41% on pick-and-roll jumpers. This should translate to the NBA.

Pick-and-Roll Runner

He also scored 1.4 points per pick-and-roll runner, which ranked 10th best in the country. He uses hesitations and stutter-steps to get into the second level of the defense.

Pick-and-Roll Getting to the Basket

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• Court Vision

• Uses his speed to scramble the defense and create for teammates.
• Really improved as a passer this season. 3.8 AST per 40 min last season/6.3 AST per 40 min this season. Additionally, Smith’s 31.6% assist rate ranked 52nd nationally.

Drive and Dish

Drive and Kick

Finding Cutters / Alley-Oops

Open-Floor Vision

Hitting the Screener

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• Ancillary Scoring Ability

• Very good shooter with his feet set. Smith’s 1.2 points per catch-and-shoot attempt ranks in the 82nd percentile nationally. Inconsistent shooter overall, but he has proved capable of knocking down 3s with his feet set.
• Can also finish at the basket. Not very efficient without using a screen, but he can convert at difficult angles and finish layups at the rim. Contortionist.

Catch-and-Shoot 3-Pointers

Finishing Makes

He doesn’t possess an advanced handle or great “moves”; simply tries to beat defenders with speed and a quick first step.

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• On-Ball Defense
  • Steal machine. Pesky and relentless motor. Exceptional lateral quickness.
  • Louisville’s all-time steal leader. Averaged 2 steals per game in each of the last three seasons. 4.0% steal percentage ranks 32nd nationally.

On-Ball Defense

Interceptions / Reading Passing Lanes

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Weaknesses / Areas of Improvement:

• Pick-and-Roll Defense
  • Opponents converted 43% of pick-and-roll driving attempts against Smith, and scored 1.1 points per possession, ranking Smith in the bottom 33rd percentile on defense.
  • His inability to guard the pick-and-roll is kind of baffling, considering how quick he is moving laterally. He’s just not strong enough at 165-pounds, and seems to have poor reaction time fighting around screens. This could be very problematic in the long-term.

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• Finishing Ability
• • Smith is not very explosive, which causes him to struggle around the basket. Smith converted 50% of his attempts at the basket this season—an average mark—and his 1.04 points per attempts ranked in the bottom 40th percentile nationally.
  • This is not that big of a concern in my opinion, because Smith uses his speed and craftiness to make plays around the rim. Plus, it’s not like he’s a terrible athlete.

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• Off the Dribble Shooting
  • Smith loses balance when trying to create off the dribble. You can’t count on him to create his own shot off the dribble, without using a screen. He scored a paltry .79 points per off the dribble attempt, ranking in the 56th percentile nationally. He made 36% of his off-the-dribble 3s, and 28% of his 2s.
  • Not great breaking his man down and creating shots in isolation. Struggles to create space without a screen. Much better shooter with feet set.

Off the Dribble 3-Pointers (misses)

He shot 14-39 off the dribble from 3-point range this season (36%).

Off the dribble 3-point makes

Some of the 14 makes.

Off the dribble 2-point misses

He shot 13-47 off the dribble from 2-point range this season (28%)

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• Turnovers
  • Nothing egregious in my opinion, but still noteworthy.
  • Smith overdribbles in the half court, leading to (a lot) of forced turnovers.
  • Careless Passes. Sometimes he throws an ill-advised pass when driving.

Overdribbling

Careless Passes

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Free Throw Shooting

This is not a weaknesses, per se, but it’s worth noting: Smith’s FT% dropped from 80% on 7 attempts per game last season, to 70% on 6 attempts per game this season.

Makes

Misses