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North Carolina 93, Louisville 84

Sunday, November 24, 2013 | Mohegan Sun Arena (Uncasville, CT)

James Michael McAdoo — SF/PF, 6-8, 230
Junior, 21 years old

Season (31 mpg): 13.0 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.3 APG, 1.3 SPG

Game: 9 points, 2 rebounds (3-11 field goals)

Outlook: Standing at 6-8 with a 7-1 wingspan, James McAdoo is a smooth combo forward with good bounce and body control, and a developing jump shot. High motor, and can impact the game while playing within the framework of an offense. He has the athleticism to score around the basket, and is slowly developing face up game.

He struggles to defend off the dribble and in the paint, but he has shown improvement this season, which is encouraging. McAdoo’s increasingly polished skill set, coupled with his patient approach and college experience, give him one of the highest upsides in the ACC. If he lands in the right NBA system—where he’s afforded the time to make mistakes, become more consistent and find his comfort zone—he has a chance to make an impact at the next level.

Field Goals

McAdoo had a relatively quiet game vs. Louisville, but his abilities were nonetheless transparent. I believe McAdoo’s future hinges on the development of his jump shot. As the video below shows, when his shot is falling, McAdoo is very difficult to stop.

STRENGTHS

Around The Basket Scoring (Scoring with Momentum)

McAdoo has made a concentrated effort to extend his game outside this season…

Shot Attempt Distribution:

(2012-2013) 22.4% Jump Shots | 45% Around Basket | 30% Post-Ups

(2013-2014) 35.7% Jump Shots | 32.1 Around Basket | 26.8% Post-Ups

I think it’s smart for McAdoo to concentrate on improving his jump shot this year. Conversely, though, the decrease in “around the basket” attempts shouldn’t be viewed as a decrease in ability. Although McAdoo is scoring 1.04 points per possession around the basket this season (compared to 1.33 last season), he’s converting 50% of his attempts. And when you watch the film, his quick bounce and astute body angling are apparent. He can also finish with either hand.

DEFENDING SHOOTERS

McAdoo is not the best defender—quicker players can break him down—but he has the length and athleticism to compensate. In other words, because of his 7-1 wingspan, he can slightly sag off his man but still be in position to effectively contest a perimeter attempt. McAdoo’s .77 points allowed per possession on jump shots last season was a solid mark, ranking in the 72nd percentile of all college players.

NEEDS TO IMPROVE

JUMP SHOT

Shooting is McAdoo’s “Achilles’ heel” right now. An improved jump shot would force defenders to play him tighter, which in turn would expand his offensive game significantly. McAdoo has struggled shooting throughout his career; he shot 28% on 96 jump shot attempts last season, and is currently 2-20 this season(!). No good.

POST-UP GAME

We already discussed how McAdoo is lethal attacking the basket with momentum. But creating his own shot in the paint is a different story.

McAdoo operates with his back to the basket on nearly 70% of his post up possessions, but he is a great post player. He’s been soft in the paint. With his back to the basket, his go-to move is, of all things, a fadeaway jump shot. That should be his last option, not his first instinct.

In all fairness, it usually takes NBA small forwards several years before developing a reliable post-up game, so this is not an indictment on McAdoo. However, he has so much potential in the post due to his size and bounce that it’s imperative he optimize this area of the floor.

North Carolina 82, Kentucky 77

Saturday, December 14, 2013 | Dean Smith Center (Chapel Hill, NC)

James Michael McAdoo — Junior, 21 years old
SF/PF, 6-8, 230

Season (31.1 mpg): 13.8 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.6 APG, 1.6 SPG
42% FG, 59% FT

Game (37 min): 20 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals
4-6 FG, 12-19 FT

Outlook: McAdoo looked much better here than when I observed him vs. Louisville last month. Maybe he’s more comfortable playing at home, maybe it was because his team scored 24 points in transition (conducive to his strengths), or maybe it was because McAdoo is, well, actually getting better.

McAdoo ran the gamut offensively—made jump shots, scored with his back to the basket, nice floater in the lane, and finalized plays in transition. He displayed a high basketball IQ en route to drawing 19 free throws, and showcased elite “bounce” off the floor. He wasn’t perfect—wasted dribbles and unnecessarily picking up his handle—but all things considered McAdoo played well. McAdoo showcased an aggressiveness and motor that he’s lacked in the past.

This is to be expected from a junior, but it stood out nonetheless.

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Last time I evaluated McAdoo, I listed “around the basket scoring” and “defending shooters” as strengths. Well, I neglected to mention his offensive rebounding/put-back skills.

McAdoo was very effective against a formidable Kentucky frontline. He only grabbed 5 rebounds, but had a clear nose for the ball and battled on every “hustle play.” When McAdoo secures a rebound, he quickly bounces off the floor.

His 1.17 points per offensive rebound last season ranked in the 71st percentile nationally, and gave credence to his bounce. McAdoo is a reliable rebounder from anywhere on the court.

Vision/Interior Passing

McAdoo displayed impressive passing instincts in the paint. He had a good feel for where his teammates were, and plays under control to “survey the scene” before taking action. I could be completely off here, but I think McAdoo has the potential to be a great passer at the next level. It’s another aspect of his often-overlooked versatility.

Video Breakdown: James Michael McAdoo

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Overview: A 2011 McDonald’s All-American, James Michael McAdoo enters the NBA Draft after three years of basketball at the University of North Carolina.

Standing at 6-8 and 230 pounds, McAdoo is equipped with intriguing physical tools and a skill set that—if somehow developed—could probably be of value at the NBA level.

McAdoo primarily played power forward in college. He was a bit undersized at 6-8, but he compensates with a 7-1 wingspan, along with NBA-level bounce and athleticism below the foul line. In fact, McAdoo made a living below the foul line, where 84% of his half-court offense came from this past season. He made 60% of his shots below the foul line, and produced a solid 1.2 points per attempt.

Again, he’s only 6-8, but a combination of wingspan, athleticism, and touch make him a force in the paint. McAdoo is nearly automatic finishing drop-offs, roaming the baseline for put-backs, catching-and-turning at the foul line, and knocking down 7-foot jumpers.

But let’s brings up the elephant in the room: As of right now, he can’t shoot.

At only 6-8, he will need to develop small forward skills. In three years at UNC, McAdoo went 0-9 from three-point range. Over the last two years (sophomore and junior), respectively, jump shots made up 22% and 16% of his half-court attempts. He shot 1-10 from mid-range as a junior, and 6-30 as a sophomore.

If drafted into the “right” system (one that can afford patience and mistakes), and if a mid-range jump shot ever materializes, McAdoo could eventually pose mismatches offensively and carve out a role in the NBA. He has elite athleticism and length, good strength, a high IQ, and a high motor. He was very reliable around the basket in college, which should translate in some degree to the NBA. If he develops a mid-range jumper, he could be interchangeable to roll/pop on the pick-and-roll, and switch screens defensively.

But McAdoo hasn’t flashed any semblance of a perimeter jump shot, to the point that his 1.4 turnovers per game are literally all caused by passing up open jumpers in favor of forced driving/charging attempts.

Defensively, McAdoo provides unique potential as a prospect who can switch pick-and-rolls, able to defend both the perimeter and the paint. However, right now this sounds better in theory than in practice. He loses track of his man off the ball, and struggles to contain perimeter penetration. I’m not saying McAdoo is a liability on defense; I’m just saying he has a long way to go.

Overall, he needs a mid-range jump shot to stick in the NBA. We’ve waited three years and it hasn’t materialized. If this versatility doesn’t come to fruition, I think it will be difficult to survive as strictly an interior player at only 6-8.

But if his jump shot/handle can improve, even gradually, McAdoo could provide value as a versatile forward who can execute multiple defensive coverages, and also score without the basketball in his hands (drop-offs, mid-range shooting, roaming the baseline, crashing the glass). He competes hard, has flashes of NBA talent and production, and in my opinion, is certainly worth taking a hard look at, because he offers several NBA attributes that could translate if integrated in concert with one another. He could be a solid role player if the mid-range jumper can somehow materialize.

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Offense

Strengths

• Finishing In the Paint. 84% of McAdoo’s half-court attempts came in the paint, where he converted 60% and scored a solid 1.2 points per attempt. He’s only 6-9, but his 7-1 wingspan and NBA athleticism allow him to finish with consistency. He must continue getting stronger but it’s apparent that his best skill is finding ways to score below the foul line.

Explosiveness

Bouncy and athletic to explode through the defense and finish at the rim.

Turn and Attack / Catch and Finish

Does a good job catching and attacking. Doesn’t waste dribbles—goes to straight to work.

Establishes Deep Position

Alley-Oops

Quick First Step

Foul Line Jumpers

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• Developing Face-Up Game. McAdoo isn’t a threat with his back to the basket, but he can score facing up in the low post. He converted 39% on 102 post attempts this season; last year he converted 35% on 128 attempts. Using his size and athleticism, he can take advantage of smaller players in the post.

Fadeaway/Turnaround Jumper

McAdoo sported a reliable post-up turnaround this season, able to use his bounce and size to rise over the defense for a jump shot. It’s kind of strange that he can hit this shot, considering he struggles mightily just a few feet deeper (1-10 mid-range, 10-36 short-range on stationary jumpers this season).

Facing Up

Drop Step

• Running the floor. Speed and athleticism in transition (57% FG).

Can flourish in an uptempo system.

Steals leading to transition

McAdoo is excellent at using his 7-1 wingspan to deflect passes and start the break going the other way.

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• Crashing the Glass. McAdoo has poor technique to box out, but he’s equipped with athleticism/length to dunk put-backs and crash the boards.

Per-game averages: 4.1 DREB, 2.6 OREB.

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Weaknesses / Areas of Improvement

• Poor Jump Shot. Converted a putrid 11-51 (22%) on jump shots this season. He avoids shooting from the perimeter (16% of possessions). At only 6-9, though, he must improve his mid-range jumper, to extend the defense and maximize versatility. Without a jump shot, McAdoo’s versatility—and in turn, his role—doesn’t really exist.

Short-Range Makes (10-26)

Capable, but far too inconsistent.

Terrible Mid-Range (1-9)

Short-Range Misses (10-26)

Driving/Runner Misses

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• Forcing Drives. Decreased his TOs from 2.7 to 1.4 this season, but he still declines open jump shots in favor of forced drives. This leads to an abundance of charges/off-balance attempts. At times, he drives with reckless abandon. Needs to develop a mid-range jump shot.

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• Must Improve Pick and Roll in order to maximize versatility. Right now, he can “roll” to the basket, but he can’t “pop” for a jumper. If he can add a 15-foot jumper, he’ll be able to space the defense and maximize his size and athleticism.

“Rolling” to the Basket (this year and last)

Can catch in stride and dunk.

Pick-and-Pop Struggles

Shot 4-19 this season.

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Defense

Strengths

• Active and long to accumulate steals and contest jumpers. 1.3 steals per game.
• Opposing players converted only 35% on jump shots. Good job contesting.

Steals

Closing Out

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Weaknesses / Areas of Improvement

• Poor defensive awareness? On the perimeter, it seems McAdoo often loses track of his man. He “over-helps” for no reason.

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• Gets beat off the dribble. He is slow laterally, which really hinders his ability to guard on the perimeter. Opponents converted 64% of spot-up driving attempts, and 58% of isolation drives. Raises questions about his “ability to defend small forwards.”

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• Gets outmuscled in the paint. Not a great shot blocker despite 7-1 wingspan, and vulnerable vs. bigger players. Perhaps he will improve as a post defender once he adds muscle.

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• Gives up rebounds. Needs to use rebounding technique to corral rebounds; he won’t be able to just out-jump players at the next level.