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Kentucky 79, Providence 65

Sunday, December 1, 2013 | Barclays Center (Brooklyn, NY)

Julius Randle — F, 6-9, 245
Freshman, 19 years old

Season (29.6 mpg): 19 PPG, 13.1 RPG, 1.9 APG

Game (34 min): 12 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists

4-7 free throws

Notes: Despite facing constant double-and triple-teams, Randle scored 12 points, grabbed 8 rebounds and dished 4 assists in 34 minutes. Randle was clearly the most NBA-ready player on the court, finishing through contact on nearly every field goal. Randle utilized his go-to move in the post: “one dribble, drop step, lefty hook shot.” The defense knew it was coming but still was helpless. Overall, a solid performance for Randle, who is a candidate to be the No.1 overall pick.

North Carolina 82, Kentucky 77

Saturday, December 14, 2013 | Dean Smith Center (Chapel Hill, NC)

Julius Randle — Freshman, 19 years old (at time of Draft)
F, 6-9, 245

Season (30.5 mpg): 17.2 PPG, 11.4 RPG, 2.0 APG
52% FG, 8.5 FTA

Game (29 min): 11 points, 5 rebounds, 4 fouls, 4 turnovers
(3-9 FG, 5-6 FT)

Outlook: This was Randle’s “worst” performance of the season, if you will. 3-9 from the field, a season-low 5 rebounds, and got into early foul trouble. Randle briefly flashed his NBA strength and explosiveness, but overall, he had a marginal impact on Saturday.

North Carolina closed off Randle’s driving lanes, and he didn’t have much of an opportunity to assert himself and get touches.

Still, no reason to fret. It was only one game, and Randle can certainly use Saturday as a learning experience. While he shot 3-9, he was still able to get the shots that he wanted. He had some good looks that could’ve gone in.

As Randle continues to get acclimated to tough crowds (this was Kentucky’s first true road game of the season) and adjusts to the new rules in college basketball, I suspect he’ll learn from his mistakes in this game and come back stronger than ever.

Video: Randle Field Goals vs. UNC

Video: Misses, Turnovers vs. UNC

Video Breakdown: Julius Randle

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Strengths:

• Strong and explosive power forward (6-9, 250 pounds). Averaged 15 points and 10 rebounds on 50% shooting as a freshman.

• Extremely strong PF with the explosion of a guard. Speed/strength/athleticism for a forward is remarkable. Like a Mack Truck scoring and rebounding in the lane.

• Lefty. Has a soft jump hook, but also has the strength to just put his head down and bulldoze through traffic. Offensive upside—scoring and rebounding—is very high.

• Embraces contact. Speed/athleticism/motor make him terrorizing in the post.

• Has flashed a jump shot, though not consistently. If Randle can develop a consistent mid-range jumper, opposing NBA teams will struggle defending him one-on-one. He could average 20 points and 10 rebounds down the road. Players of his size (6-9, 250) who have the explosion of a guard don’t appear every year. Talent, strength and motor to be an NBA all-star. But developing a jump shot is paramount to realizing his upside.

• Looks like an agile and explosive version of Zach Randolph.

Weaknesses / Areas of Improvement:

• Struggles with his off hand (right hand). Randle struggles to finish going right, to the point that he exclusively uses his left hand to finish. He often makes layups more difficult than they need to be, forcing left hand finishes on the right side.

• Randle doesn’t recognize help defense. When the defense collapses on Randle, he often commits a turnover. He tries to force dribbles through crowds of defenders, resulting in an abundance of strips and turnovers. He must keep his head up to see the floor when the defense collapses. Out of 71 college players with a minimum of 600 offensive possessions, Randle ranked 62nd of 71 with a 16.3% turnover rate, mostly due to his recklessness vs. double teams.

• Will his jump shot ever develop? He shot 17% (9-52) on all jump shots this season; 2-11 from mid-range, and 3-18 from 3-point range. Randle’s jump shot will be vital in the NBA as he goes up against players who can match his strength. Must add versatility—a jump shot—to his game. Additionally, he sometimes struggles to finish over length/athleticism, making it even more vital that Randle develop an outside jump shot.

Overall, Randle’s strengths considerably outweigh his “question marks.” He’s a 6-9, 250-pound explosive power forward. He possesses a soft jump hook, but also has the strength and unique ability to put his head down and bulldoze through traffic. Smooth touch, but also scrappy and rugged. He’s nearly automatic in the interior (63%, 1.34 PPP), can push the ball in transition, and already has countermoves in the post. Randle can make something out of nothing in the post, and clean up on the glass (top-50 O&D rebounding rates nationally).

At the risk of sounding hyperbolic, Randle has a LeBron-esque physique with a Zach Randolph-esque lefty touch. While it’s certainly possible Randle will never develop a jump shot, and will forever struggle against NBA length/athleticism down low, in my opinion Randle projects to play at a very high level—with a chance to be an NBA All-Star. He’s only 19 years old, with precocious offensive gifts and the upside to improve.

Randle may never be a guy who can take over in the last 5 minutes of a game. But if he realizes his potential, you’ll be able to dump the ball to Randle at any given moment and expect a positive play (point, rebound, drawn foul, and if he gets more disciplined, an assist). He possesses rare firepower for his size, and should have a very meaningful NBA career ahead of him. Randle is an elite NBA prospect (relative to his class), and it’s been evident dating back to his days with the Texas Titans. In my eyes, he’s a more explosive and nimble version of Zach Randolph.

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Offense – Strengths

Interior Scoring

Randle is strong and skilled in and around the painted area. He converted 63% of his attempts in the lane, and a solid 40% in back-to-the-basket situations. His 26% free throw rate in post-up situations ranked 10th in the country (min. of 130 possessions). Even facing constant double teams, Randle is able to clear out space and get his shot off through traffic.

At 6-9, 250, he reminds me of a quicker/more agile version of Zach Randolph. He has the total offensive package in the paint, with a rare blend of strength and explosion.

Spin Moves

Randle’s two most polished—and favorite—moves are the jump hook and spin. He’s entering the NBA with two go-to moves.

Jump Hook / Tear Drop (can face up or play with back to basket)

Drop-Step

And-Ones

Randle recorded an impressive 31 and-ones this season. He clearly has the power and burst to finish through contact, and draw an abundance of fouls.

Bounce / Explosion

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Cutting / Sensing Gaps in the Defense

Randle finished 63% of his cutting attempts this season, drawing a foul on 25% of his attempts. He does a good job of sensing gaps in the painted area, and finishing in a swift and smooth motion.

He’s terrific flashing to the mid-post, or running the baseline for drop-offs and alley-oops. Give him space and it’s a dunk.

Flash Cuts

Baseline Cuts / Alley-Oops

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Rebounding

Randle is more than just a scorer—his 13.4% offensive rebounding percentage ranked 47th nationally, and his 24.7% defensive percentage ranked 40th. Extreme strength and high motor give him an edge here.

He tracks down balls on offense, or can grab a defensive rebound and start the fast break himself.

Offensive Rebounds / Put-Backs

Defensive Rebounds

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Ball Handling / Driving

This is both a strength and weakness at this point. Randle was actually fairly reliant on his driving ability throughout college, as 43 of his 49 isolation attempts were of the driving variety. This was partly attributable to his poor jump shooting, but also due to solid driving potential.

His right hand struggles notwithstanding (we’ll get to that), Randle can handle the ball very well for a forward. He can drive it left, push the ball exceptionally well in transition, and get to the basket from the perimeter in one dribble.

Driving Left

Driving Right (finishes with left hand a lot; can this last in the NBA?)

Stutter Steps / Hesitation

This is a developing aspect of Randle’s game. He can freeze his defender using a beautiful stop-and-go hesitation move.

One-Dribble Take-Offs (Burst)

As mentioned, Randle is a forward with the explosion of a guard. With a clear first step, he has the power and burst to go from the 3-point line to the basket in one dribble.

Transition Handle (can really push the ball in transition)

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Offense – Weaknesses / Areas of Improvement

• Gets Stripped (poor recognition when defense collapses)
• Struggles vs. Length
• Weak Right Hand
• Poor Jump Shot

Gets Stripped. Poor recognition when defense collapses.

Randle doesn’t recognize help defense. As of right now, when the defense collapses on Randle, he often commits a turnover. He tries to force dribbles through crowds of defenders, resulting in an abundance of strips and turnovers. Has “tunnel vision” in the post.

Out of 71 college players with a minimum of 600 offensive possessions, Randle ranked 62nd of 71 with a 16.3% turnover rate, mostly due to his recklessness vs. double teams.

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Struggles vs. Length

He somestimes struggles to score against, and defend, long/athletic players.

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Weak Right Hand (forcing back left)

Randle often makes layups more difficult than they need to be, forcing left hand finishes on the right side. He will need to improve his weak right hand as opponents begin to figure him out.

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Poor Jump Shot

Will Randle ever develop a jump shot? His upside is largely contingent on expanding his game; i.e. developing mid-range jumper. 52 jump shot attempts is a small sample size, but Randle must show that he can step out and consistently hit a 15-foot J.

Mid-Range Misses (2-11)

3-Point Misses (3-18)

Jump Shot Makes (rare; 9-52 this season)

Free Throws (misses)

Randle shot 71% from the free throw line. Doesn’t fully bend his knees.

Free Throw Makes

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Defense – Strengths

• Blocks
• Solid Post Defense

Blocks

He’s isn’t going to block shots as a help defender, but Randle has good bounce and timing in isolation situations.

Solid Post Defense

Randle has been publicly maligned for his poor post defense. However, on film, it seems Randle is a serviceable post defender. Has size to defend the position, and is laterally quick enough in the paint.

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Defense – Weaknesses / Areas of Improvement

• Struggles Defending Length/Strength
• Slow Feet / Gets Beat on the Perimeter

Offensively, there are questions regarding Randle’s ability to score over length/athleticism. The same goes for defense. Longer players sometimes get the better of him (like the LSU game on 1/28).

This has become perhaps the biggest offensive question mark surrounding Randle.

Struggles Defending Length / Strength

Slow Feet / Gets Beat on the Perimeter

He probably won’t be guarding out to the perimeter in the NBA, but still, Randle gets shaken pretty badly by quick point guards.