*If the videos do not appear, please “refresh” the webpage once

Syracuse 68, St. John’s 63

Sunday, December 15, 2013 | Madison Square Garden (New York, NY)

CJ Fair — SF/PF, 6-8, 205
Senior, 22 years old

Season (35.5 mpg): 17.8 PPG, 5.3 RPG

Game (36 min): 21 points, 5 rebounds

Outlook: Fair is having a terrific senior campaign. He’s scored at least 15 points in 10 of 11 games, and he continues to be a solid rebounder. Most importantly though, he’s the “go-to guy”on this Syracuse team; the offense runs through him late in games. He displayed terrific poise vs. St. John’s, and single-handedly closed the game with at least three “nail in the coffin” contested jump shots.

As an NBA prospect, he’s a versatile combo-forward with great length and athleticism. He’s a good shooter, but only in some situations — terrific mid-range, and good in catch-and-shoot situations; conversely, he really struggles to create off the dribble. Also, he clearly favors his left hand.

STRENGTHS

Face-Up (Mid-Range / Catch-and-Shoot)

You can tell Fair has put in enormous repetitions by the fact that he looks down when he operates in face-up situations. In other words, Fair will catch the ball, face up, and then patiently wait for the defender to make a movement. Once he finds that split-second window to get off a clean look, he rises for a shot…and usually makes it.

Fair is effective in the mid-range area (17 feet to the 3-point line), where he’s shooting 40%. He’s also a great catch-and-shoot presence, shooting 51%. He was unstoppable in this area vs. St. John’s.

Video: Mid-Range / Catch-and-Shoot

Creating Misdirection (Running Off Screens)

Fair is very good shooting off screens. He has good footwork to find an opening, and catches the ball in a fluid motion to rise for a shot.

Video: Off Screens

Fair is good at running off screens, but I also think this helps minimize/mask the fact that he struggles to put the ball on the floor.

Crashing Boards

Fair uses his bounce and length to crash the boards. He’s not particularly great at securing rebounds, but when he does secure a rebound, he’s almost automatic on tip-ins and quick put-back attempts.

Video: Crashing Boards

NEEDS TO IMPROVE

Off the Dribble / Isolation Game

Fair isn’t a very skilled isolation player. He struggles to create off the dribble, and lacks the strength and post moves to operate with his back to the basket. His .67 points per possession in isolation situations ranks in the bottom 70th percentile nationally. He also heavily favors his left hand off the dribble.

Video: Off the Dribble Struggles

Video: Isolation Struggles

Skinny Frame

He will need to add weight while keeping his mobility as a 6-8 player. He blends in with Syracuse’s zone, but at the next level, stronger players could expose him in man-to-man situations.

OVERALL

For all of CJ Fair’s shortcomings, he has some NBA tools to work with (mid-range shooting, bounce and athleticism). If he can add muscle, develop his off the dribble skills and continue to be aggressive on the boards, he’ll have a better chance of sticking as a role player in the NBA.

04/14/14

Video Breakdown: CJ Fair

As an NBA prospect, CJ Fair is a versatile small forward with good size (6-8) and athleticism. He’s a good shooter, but only from the mid-range area. In other words, Fair struggles to create off the dribble, and his range is limited to 18-feet. A poor handle and weak frame make it hard for Fair to create off the dribble. Other than a simple pull-up, Fair simply cannot create shots for himself at this point. A telling sign is that, after improving from his sophomore to junior campaign, Fair’s shooting actually got worse as a senior (explained below).

Defensively, Fair has a decent 6-9 wingspan, but he compensates with constant activity and quickness. He racks up steals and blocks, albeit within Syracuse’s 2-3 zone.

Overall, good size for the position (6-8), and a great athlete. Terrific mid-range jumper, with a developing handle. But he will need to continuing developing said handle to eventually create shots for himself; and he must add muscle to compete in and around the lane.

The framework of a two-way skill set is apparent—and Fair is intriguing from a physical/athletic standpoint—but he still has a ways to go, both in terms of developing his body and his skills. And at 22 years old (23 in September), you have to wonder how much offensive upside is left in his game.

–

*If the videos do not appear, please “refresh” the webpage once

PHYSICAL PROFILE

6-8, 215-pound small forward. Shooting range to 18-feet.

However, poor handle to create off the dribble, and no muscle to finish through contact. Simply averse to contact right now, to the point he continuously avoids it. Kind of like he’s stuck in the mid-range area with nowhere to go.

STRENGTHS

Breaking down Fair’s scoring arsenal

Catch and Shoot in Mid-Range Area

Fair is effective in the mid-range area (17 feet to the 3-point line), converting 40%. He often faces-up, sizes up the defender, and takes a one-dribble pull-up. He can take a one- dribble pull-up, or just catch-and-shoot. This is his best offensive move right now.

Misdirection (Running Off Screens and Pin-Downs)

15% of Fair’s shot attempts are running off screens. He has good footwork to find open space in a defense, and he catches the ball in a relatively fluid motion to rise for a shot. 6-8 size allows him to see over defenders.

Fair is not a great driver, but he is capable of driving to the hoop in a straight-line fashion coming off a screen. Athleticism makes Fair dangerous with an open lane.

Capable Creating in the Half Court (but not great)

— As mentioned, Fair is a catch-and-shoot threat. He’s also capable driving left, though he’s a poor finisher due to his weak frame.

— The below clips are Fair’s best half-court moments this season. He’s limited creating for himself in isolation, but he averaged 17 points per game, so he clearly has some offensive skills.

Click “playlist” on the video to open the library.

Transition

Only 9.5% of Fair’s attempts are in transition. Average finisher on the break—he’s averse to contact—but he runs the floor well.

Defense / Rebounding

Steals, Blocks (Active on defense)

— Fair averages 1.3 steals per game, and 0.8 blocks per game. Good length and activity defensively. It’s difficult to fully assess Fair within Syracuse’s zone; nonetheless, Fair is apparently a good help defender.

Steals

Blocks

Rebounding (6.4 RPG – 4.7 DRPG, 1.7 ORPG)

— Doesn’t track down rebounds, but Fair is active around the basket for tip-ins and put-backs.

Defensive Rebounding (4.7 per game)
Offensive Rebounding (1.7 per game)

Click “playlist” on the video to open the library.

WEAKNESSES

Fair’s limitations are prevalent, and they stem from four main areas:

1) Poor ball handling
2) Poor 3-Point Shooting
3) Weak Frame (lacks strength)
4) Turnovers

Not surprisingly, these limitations are intertwined (i.e. poor ball handling makes it difficult for him to create shots off the dribble, which leads to turnovers).

Poor ball handling

Spot Up / Isolation Misses

— Struggles to create shots off the dribble.
— Activity & length give him potential as a “cutter,” but he lacks the strength to finish through contact
— Simply no ball handling skills. Can only utilize a one-dribble pull-up.

He needs to play alongside a point guard who can create shots for him.

Struggles Driving Right
— On film, it’s clear Fair heavily favors his left hand.
— Only 9-for-38 “driving right” on the season. 8 of those possessions resulted in turnovers.

Videos:

1. Finishes with right hand (rare)
— This is what happens in the rare occasion he attempts to finish with his right hand

2. Forces it back left (when driving right, most of the time Fair forces the play back to his left hand)

3. Picks up his dribble when driving right (resulting in off-balanced jump shots)

Click “playlist” on the video to open the library.

Transition Struggles

— Converted 47% in transition this season. 1.04 PPP ranked in the 48th percentile of all players.
— Weak frame & shaky handle. Runs the floor well, though. Potential here.

Poor Perimeter Shooting (struggles with everything other than mid-range jumper)

Other than a mid-range jumper, Fair struggles as a shooter. His 3-point shooting inexplicably regressed as a senior (fewer makes on more attempts). He also can’t create off the dribble – simply a stationary shooter at this point.

Senior year: 43% FG (15 FGA), 24-87 three-pointers (28%)
Junior year: 47% FG (11.6 FGA), 30-64 three-pointers (47%)

Poor 3-Point Shooting (28% this year; 47% last year)

Poor off the dribble jump shooting (29% on the season; .62 PPP ranks in 28th percentile)

Weak Frame (Lacks Strength)

Videos:

1. 215 pounds. Too weak to drive it.
— Loses balance. Leads to a lot of turnovers.

2 & 3. Avoiding Contact (He clearly tries to avoid contact, even against smaller defenders)

3. Post Ups
— Only 4.6% of offense (21 attempts). In reality, though, only about five legitimate back-to-the-basket possessions.
— Lack of lower body strength and inability to establish post position limits this aspect of his game.

Needs to add weight to battle against NBA size & physicality, especially over the course of 82 games.

Click “playlist” on the video to open the library.

Turnovers

2.5 TO per game, leading Syracuse. 17% turnover percentage was 50th-worst in the ACC.

Fair’s inability to create off the dribble/finish through contact contributes to an abundance of turnovers.

Careless Passes

Loose handle

Gets stripped