New Mexico 66, Wyoming 61 (OT)
February 5, 2014 | 9 p.m. MT | The Pit (Albuquerque, NM)
New Mexico 18-4, Wyoming 14-8
Craig Neal (Head Coach, New Mexico): 505-917-3561 (cell)
Lamont Smith (Associate Head Coach): 480-784-7236 (cell)
Craig Snow (Assistant Coach): 505-715-0771 (cell)
Practice notes from Tuesday, Feb 4, can be found here.
Recap: In a game that featured nine ties and 23 lead changes, New Mexico outlasted Wyoming in overtime, 66-61. Lobos forward Cameron Bairstow—who posted 23 points and 11 rebounds—hit a game-tying layup with 35 seconds left in regulation to force OT. Alex Kirk contributed 15 points and 10 rebounds, while Kendall Williams scored 13 points on 2-13 shooting. Riley Grabau led Wyoming with 12 points, while three players—Larry Nance Jr., Charles Hankerson Jr. and Nathan Sobey—scored 10 a piece. It’s always close when these two teams play; according to New Mexico’s sports information director, the Lobos lead the all time series, 66-64.
*Wyoming sophomore Josh Adams, who leads the Cowboys in assists (3 APG) and is second in scoring (11.8 PPG), was suspended after striking a Utah State player last Saturday, Feb 1.
NBA Prospects
1. Cameron Bairstow (SR): PF, 6-9, 250
2. Alex Kirk (JR): C, 7-0, 250
3a. Larry Nance Jr. (JR, Wyoming): SF/PF, 6-8, 225
3b. Kendall Williams (SR): G, 6-4, 180
Next Tier
5. Cullen Neal (FR): PG, 6-4, 186
— Cell: 505-506-9381
6. Obij Aget (FR): C, 7-0, 220
7. Derek Cooke Jr. (JR, Wyoming): PF, 6-9, 220
8. Deshawn Delaney (JR): SG, 6-5, 190
9. Hugh Greenwood (JR): G, 6-3, 205
10. Nathan Sobey (SR, Wyoming): PG, 6-3, 185
11. Riley Grabau (JR, Wyoming): G, 6-2, 175
–
NBA Prospects
1. Cameron Bairstow — PF, 6-9, 250
Senior, 23 years old
Season (32 mpg): 20 PPG, 7 RPG, 1.8 APG
56% FG, 62% true shooting percentage
Game: 23 pts, 11 rbs
8-14 FG, 7-11 FT
Outlook: Bairstow was the best player on the court. Using world-class strength, he punished Wyoming’s frontline to the tune of 23 points and 11 rebounds on 57% shooting. He established position in the paint, maintained a high motor, and pounded away until Wyoming eventually gave up.
Offensively, he displayed a soft touch on jump hooks in the paint, made several elbow jumpers, and cleaned up two put-back dunks. He’s also an underrated passer, capable of distributing from the high or low post, or passing out of traps.
Bairstow’s most apparent weakness was the inability to explode off the ground. It often seemed like he exerted all his energy just to elevate; like jumping doesn’t come naturally to him. Larry Nance and Derek Cooke rejected Bairstow with ease. Bairstow compensates with a muscular frame and high motor, but it makes you wonder if this will fly in the NBA.
Defensively, Bairstow maintains position in the low post, but his average athleticism and wingspan make it difficult to contest shots. Additionally, he’s appears to stay upright in his stance, allowing quicker/more athletic forwards to blow by him on the perimeter. This is problematic. He needs to stay upright in his stance to defend out to 18-feet.
Bairstow continues to add skill to his NBA frame, and has been a reliable contributor all season. Going forward, I’d like to see him finish with his left hand more often. During practice Tuesday and the game Wednesday, he clearly favored his right hand. Even if he would drive left, he’d inexplicably force a reverse layup on the right side. Per Synergy, Bairstow drives right 58% of the time in isolation situations, and drives left 26% of the time (he rises for a jump shot 16%). He’s not necessarily averse to going left, but he is averse to finishing with his left hand.
Overall, based on the eye test, Bairstow had a strong frame, was capable from mid-range (62% shooting; 1.24 PPP on the year), has a soft touch around the rim and a high motor. Not very explosive or athletic, but he’s capable on both sides of the ball. If nothing else, his professional approach and attitude are a boon to any program. He sort of reminds me of Luis Scola.
Strengths
— Very strong and powerful
— Tireless work ethic
— Efficient scorer (56% FG, 62% true shooting percentage)
— Improving mid-range jumper (62% on 29 attempts; 1.2 PPP; pick and pop potential)
— Soft touch to finish around the basket (converting 57% around the basket, 61% post up)
— Uses strength to position for rebounds; natural physicality
— Skilled passer in the post, out of traps
— Proven development
Defects/Areas of Improvement
— Average athlete and wingspan (poor lift? – NBA combine will reveal)
— Slow foot speed (Quick and athletic forwards take him off the bounce)
— Avoids finishing with left hand
— 23 years old (has he peaked?)
Video
Poor Lift?
Not Bad Lift …
Points vs. Wyoming
Offensive Rebounds (recent)
Passing (out of traps, in of the post)
Mid-Range Jump Shots
Slow Feet?
2. Alex Kirk — C, 7-0, 250
Junior, 22 years old
Season (32 mpg): 14 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 2.8 BPG
Game: 15 pts, 10 rbs, 2 stl
7-11 FG, 1-1 FT
Outlook: Kirk posted a double-double and on an efficient 64%. But he failed to establish a rhythm, attempting only two shots in 13 first-half minutes.
Nevertheless, he flashed glimpses of NBA potential. Standing at 7-feet tall, Kirk has a versatile game, with power down low and range to 18-feet. He produced from the paint and perimeter vs. Wyoming—power and touch at the basket, and a catch-and-shoot machine from the high post. The threat of his jump shot pays dividends for New Mexico, because Kirk stretches the defense and creates space for his teammates. I need to watch more film to understand his defense, but offensively he’s more skilled than most 7-footers. Kirk could enter the draft after this season, or stay for his redshirt senior year, when he’ll be the focal point of New Mexico’s offense.
Strengths
— True 7-footer
— Adequate rebounder
— Range (effective shooter inside 3-point line; only making 19% of 3-pointers, though)
— Mobile in transition
— Explosive from stand-still position (not particularly explosive off the dribble)
— Skilled in low post (shooting 70% around the basket, per Synergy)
— Pick-and-Pop Potential
Defects/Areas of Improvement
— Has range, but poor 3-point shooter
— Unproven defender (in my opinion)
— Not very physical on either side of the ball (how will he fit as a 7-footer?; is there such a thing as a “stretch 7-footer?”)
— Underwent back surgery, which led to redshirt sophomore year
Video
Points vs. Wyoming
Crashing Boards (recent)
Nance Blocks Kirk
3a. Larry Nance Jr. — SF/PF, 6-8, 225
Junior, 21 years old
Season (34.6 mpg): 16 PPG, 9 RPG, 2 APG, 2 BPG
54% FG, 27% 3-point (1.5 attempts per game)
Game: 10 pts, 5 rbs, 4 blks
4-13 FG, 2-2 FT
Outlook: Nance is a slender and extremely athletic stretch-forward. Not a great jump shooter, Nance is most effective driving the lane for an aerial jaunt towards the basket. Big hands, long arms, and explosive jumping ability. He can drive to the hoop in the half court, or lead the break and finish in transition.
He’s terrific attacking the rim and straight-line finishing, but Nance struggles away from the basket. He displayed poor shooting form, and according to Synergy, he’s shooting a horrid 25% on 69 jumpshot attempts this season.
Frankly, his offensive game is predicated on energy and points around the basket. He often scores on drop offs or quick cuts in the half-court, but his range is limited and I wonder how he’d fit within the constraints of an NBA offense. Defensively, Nance has long arms to contest shots, but at 225 pounds, he will struggle to defend post players in the NBA.
Overall, he hasn’t been able to add skill or polish to his athletic gifts. He’s aggressive, which is good, but he needs to develop some sort of shot.
Strengths
— NBA athlete
— Finishes through contact
— Stretch-forward potential (if he can develop jump shot)
— Defends bigger than his size
— Excellent timing on blocks
— High motor (despite skinny build)
Defects/Areas of Improvement
— Shooting 25% on jump shots (poor form)
— Defends big men in college (needs to defend wing players in NBA — does he possess requisite foot speed?)
— Average touch around the basket (overly reliant on athleticism)
— Just feels like something is missing (vague/ambiguous observation, but a visceral feeling that something is missing)
Video
Nance blocks Kirk, Bairstow
10 points vs. New Mexico
4-13 vs. New Mexico (misses)
3b. Kendall Williams — G, 6-4, 180
Senior, 22 years old
Season (35 mpg): 17.6 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 5.3 RPG, 2 SPG
29% assist rate; 95th nationally
Game: 13 pts, 4 rbs, 0 ast
2-13 FG, 0-6 three-point, 9-12 FT
Outlook: Williams had one of his worst performances this season. He was overly passive early on, and was imprudent/forceful late in the game. I’m not sure if he was told to play a certain way, but the result was a 2-for-13 performance, including his first zero-assist game this season.
Williams is a “rhythm player”, and he couldn’t find his groove on this particular day. If you put this performance in a bubble, you’d think Williams is not an NBA prospect. But obviously, being the reigning Mountain West POY, he’s a proven commodity in college basketball.
Through observing him over the last two years, his makeup as an NBA prospect is clear. Here’s what I wrote following Tuesday’s practice, slightly modified:
“A wiry combo guard with excellent speed and a good first step. Due to his speed, it’s difficult to keep him out of the lane. He can score in a variety of ways in the lane, changing direction in the paint and using either hand to finish at the rim. Good body control and speed in the paint. He’s also showcased a mid- and long-range jumper, though not with consistency.
Williams can play on or off the ball. In transition, he can push the ball or run the wings; in the half court, he can run the pick-and-roll, or use off-ball screens to free himself. He’s a dynamic weapon on the college level, as he can go for 46 points one game, then 17-and-10 the next.
However, at 6-4 and 180 pounds, Williams is a tweener. He lacks the requisite foot speed and strength to defend NBA shooting guards. Too slow laterally, and too small physically.
If he’s going to make it, it’ll be as a point guard. But Williams played off the ball against Wyoming. His jump shot, which has been hit or miss throughout his career, was out of sync—and frankly a disservice—on this day.”
Strengths
— Excellent first step to get in the paint
— Capable finisher with both hands
— Draws contact (8.3 FTA)
— Second burst “turning the corner” on screens
— Can play on-or-off ball
— Good hands defensively (2 SPG)
— Gifted scorer when feeling it
Defects/Areas of Improvement
— Has makeup of PG, not SG (6-4, 180; needs to make full transition)
— Can he make plays for teammates at the NBA level?
— Can he finish over NBA size?
— Skinny, arguably weak
— Often turns back against pressure; not a great one-on-one player
Video
2-13 FG vs. Wyoming
Drawing contact vs. Wyoming (9-12 FT)
Next Tier
5. Cullen Neal — PG, 6-4, 186
Freshman, 20 years old
Season (21 mpg): 8 PPG, 2 RPG, 2 APG
Game: 5 pts, 4 rbs
2-5 FG, 4 fouls in 17 min
Cell: 505-506-9381
Outlook: Cullen’s court vision and shooting off the dribble were apparent in the 17 minutes he played. He accurately placed long-range passes, and knocked down a 3-pointer from NBA range. He plays with contagious energy and emotion, and should play an integral role as early as next season. Quite honestly, New Mexico’s offense was more fluid with Cullen on the floor and Kendall Williams on the bench; not a knock against Kendall, but Cullen’s playmaking skills facilitated crisp ball movement and got the bigs involved.
Strengths
— Size for position (6-4 PG)
— Court vision and passing instincts (can pass with both hands, takes pride in distributing)
— Can shoot off the dribble, with range
— Developing as a floor general (projects to be New Mexico’s point guard for next three years)
— Can play on or off ball
Defects/Areas of Improvement
— Skinny frame
— Stays high defensively
— Average athlete (can he finish over bigger players?)
— Keeps dribble high
— Small sample size (can’t make any definitive assertions right now)
Video
5 points vs. Wyoming
2 assists vs. Wyoming
6. Obij Aget — C, 7-0, 220
Freshman, 21 years old
*Aget originally signed for the 2012-13 season, but he tore his ACL and did not enroll in the fall of 2012, thereby not starting his eligibility clock.
Season (7.5 mpg): 1.5 PPG, 2 RPG, 0.3 BPG
Game: 0 pts, 0 rbs (3 min)
Outlook: Entered the game, got called for a travel, exited game. Notes from practice:
“Right now, Aget is as raw as they come.
Strengths
— 7-footer with a 6-10 (estimated) wingspan
— Tries to dunk everything inside the foul line
— Decent timing on blocks
Defects/Areas of Improvement
— No offensive moves
— As raw as they come (raw dribbling, passing, moving his feet, blocking shots)
— Stick skinny (only 220 pounds!)
— Already 21 years old
Aget has good size and athleticism for a PF/C, but he is very raw right now. In other words, the first observation anyone would have is that he’s still learning the fundamentals of playing basketball.
He can dunk the ball from a standing position, but clearly struggles to put the ball on the floor. Defensively, he’s a work in progress as well. During practice, Coach Neal lamented Aget’s inability to cover ground in the zone. He works hard and loves playing basketball, but right now there’s no semblance of skill present.”
7. Derek Cooke Jr. — PF, 6-9, 220
Junior, 22 years old
*Cooke spent two years at Cloud County (KS) Junior College before transferring to Wyoming in the summer of 2012.
Season (20 mpg): 5.3 PPG, 6 RPG
24.6% defensive rebounding percentage (43rd nationally)
Game: 9 pts, 6 rbs, 2 stl
4-9 FG
Outlook: A bouncy and agile forward who can make plays around the basket. He’s an athletic post player who plays hard—not super skilled, but can be effective if he outworks you. Per Synergy, 95% of Cooke’s shot attempts this season are around the basket, while only 1.6% are jump shots. Cooke, who didn’t even play high school basketball, scores on drop offs, angles, and put-backs. An ancillary cog as a high-energy, athletic post player. Solid on the college level, but not skilled enough to play in the NBA.
Strengths
— Athletic post player; plays hard
— Explosive and agile in open court
— 36% of baskets are on cuts; finishing 70% of cuts
— 25% defensive rebounding percentage (43rd nationally)
— Active and alert for put-backs and dunks
Defects/Areas of Improvement
— Not skilled in half court
— Can’t go left
— Can’t put the ball on the floor
— Only 220 pounds
Video
9 points vs. New Mexico
4-9 vs. New Mexico (misses)
8. Deshawn Delaney — SG, 6-5, 190
Junior, 21 years old
*Delaney spent two years at Vincennes (IN) Junior College before enrolling at New Mexico in the summer of 2013.
Season (17 mpg): 4.6 PPG, 3.5 RPG
Game: 2 pts, 5 rbs, 4 ast
1-3 FG
Outlook: Delaney has good size, length and athleticism for a shooting guard. Moves his feet well on defense, and uses length to contest shots. Has good potential as a defender and rebounder, though he needs to add muscle to compete with stronger players. Right now, he gets most of points slashing to the hoop—usually he’ll receive the ball with forward momentum, take a dribble or two, and go up for a shot.
However, he struggles to put the ball on the floor. Delaney has a few tools to build upon, but he needs to develop his handle, and gain about 20 pounds. If his offensive game develops over the next eight months, we can revisit him as a fringe NBA prospect.
Strengths
— Long swingman, good athlete
— Effective cutter and slasher
— Capable defender
— Decent catch and shoot (14-33 this year (42%))
Defects/Areas of Improvement
— Can’t put the ball on the floor
— 190 pounds
— Not skilled in half court
Video
4 assists vs. Wyoming
2 points vs. Wyoming
9. Hugh Greenwood — G, 6-3, 205
Junior, 22 years old
Season (31 mpg): 6 PPG, 5 RPG, 3 APG
Game: 8 pts, 4 rbs, 3 ast
3-5 FG, 2-2 FT
Outlook: Greenwood attempted only 5 shots vs. Wyoming, but with Kendall Williams playing poorly, he was a stabilizing force. Greenwood is a hybrid guard — he primarily plays point guard, but his main contributions are rebounding, and setting up the pass before the pass that leads to a bucket—in other words, he accumulates “hockey assists.” 82% of his attempts are jump shots, but again, Greenwood is not expected to score. He organizes the offense, protects the ball (4.2 assist to turnover ratio), comes up with a rebound, and make the correct “basketball play.” He lacks the athleticism/scoring/court vision/upside/defensive skills to play in the NBA, but he’s a winner and the “glue” holding New Mexico together.
Strengths
— Strong build
— Good rebounder
— High basketball IQ
— Good shooter (38% on jump shots)
— Proven leader
Defects/Areas of Improvement
— Avoids driving in the lane (only 15 attempts in the paint)
— Doesn’t do anything particularly “well”
— Below the rim player
Video
8 points vs. Wyoming
3-5 vs. Wyoming (misses)
3 assists vs. Wyoming
10. Nathan Sobey — G, 6-3, 185
Senior, 23 years old
*Sobey played two years at Cochise College (AZ) before enrolling at Wyoming in the fall of 2012.
Season (28.5 mpg): 7.5 PPG, 3 RPG, 2 APG
Game: 10 pts, 4 rbs, 5 ast
5-9 FG
Outlook: In terms of athleticism relative to height, few rank ahead of Sobey. One of the most athletic guards in the Mountain West, Sobey is a veteran who looks to drive the ball. He’s inconsistent from the perimeter (22% from 3), but is capable finishing at the basket due to his athletic ability. He also displayed solid court vision on the pick and roll, hitting the screener at the perfect moment, though his 5 assists were a season-high.
Video
10 points vs. New Mexico
5 assists vs. New Mexico
11. Riley Grabau — G, 6-2, 175
Junior, 21 years old
Season (34.7 mpg): 11 PPG, 2 RPG, 2 APG
Game: 12 pts, 1 rbs, 1 ast
4-7 FG; 4 three-pointers
Outlook: Grabau is a combo guard, though he’s running the point the majority of the time this season. His best skill is shooting—116 of 157 shots this season (74%) are from 3. He can shoot off the bounce, off catch and shoot, or off of screens. Smooth scoring ability, including shots late in the clock.
Video: Four 3-pointers vs. New Mexico
*Ages calculated at time of 2014 NBA Draft