Marcus Paige

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North Carolina 93, Louisville 84

Sunday, November 24, 2013 | Mohegan Sun Arena (Uncasville, CT)

Marcus Paige — PG, 6-1, 175
Sophomore, 20 years old

Season (35.6 min): 19.7 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 4.0 APG

Game: 32 points, 2 assists, 2 rebounds, 2 steals
9-12 shooting, 3-5 three-pointer, 11-11 free throws

Outlook: Paige had the best performance of any player in this game. He scored 32 points and made countless “dagger,” nail in the coffin plays to put Louisville away. He’s a savvy point guard with NBA range on his jump shot and the quickness to maneuver his way in the lane. He’s also the consummate leader, maintaining his composure at all times and setting the tone for his team. Averaging 19.7 points and 4 assists per game on 47 percent shooting, Paige is a legitimate candidate to win ACC Player of the Year.

vs. Louisville

Paige didn’t showcase any glaring weaknesses, but he lacks NBA size and athleticism, which gives me pause. Furthermore, he was a scoring-oriented point guard in high school, so I want to see if he can sustain his strong assist numbers for the duration of the season. He’s an average athlete, and doesn’t do anything particularly well, but his intangibles are special.

North Carolina 82, Kentucky 77

Saturday, December 14, 2013 | Dean Smith Center (Chapel Hill, NC)

Marcus Paige — Sophomore, 20 years old
PG, 6-1, 175

Season (35.2 mpg): 19.2 PPG, 4.2 APG 3.1 RPG
90% FT

Game (37 min): 23 points, 2 assists, 2 rebounds, 3 steals
21 second half points, 10-10 FT

Outlook: It’s cliche, but it’s true: Marcus Paige is the consummate college point guard — Floor general, leader, always poised, and can single-handedly will his team to victory. Paige has a calculated maturity beyond his years, and I expect him to lead North Carolina deep into the NCAA Tournament this season. He had another terrific game here, scoring 21 second-half points and converting several nail-in-the-coffin baskets down the stretch.

Paige can clearly score from all three levels in college. The statistics back it up, too:

45% FGs
38% 3-pointers
1.091 points per play on shots from 17 feet to the 3-point line, ranking in the 88th percentile nationally.

Video: Playmaking (scoring) vs. Kentucky

All that being said, my first inclination is that Paige’s game will struggle to translate to the NBA. He’s a terrific scorer (particularly from deep), but at 6-1, Paige lacks the size and athleticism of a typical NBA point guard. I also have reservations about his defensive potential — what position can he defend?

He’s slow on his feet defensively, struggles to contain pick and roll penetration, and doesn’t have the lift to contest jump shots. Paige is allowing .87 points per play on defense, ranking in the 48th percentile nationally. Furthermore, opponents are scoring 1.3 points per pick-and-roll attempt, ranking Paige in the bottom 85th percentile of all players.

Video: Man to Man Defense

Perhaps Paige can become a Beno Udrih/Goran Dragic type of player in the NBA — a hybrid lead guard who shoots and passes, and can play off the ball. If he was a few inches taller, I’d say Paige is certainly an NBA player. But he doesn’t, and I’m not sure right now.

It’s foolish to bet against Paige just yet—he’s only 20, and has a lot more time to develop before he enters the Draft. But I’m hesitant. If Paige can sustain his assist numbers and improve his defense throughout the season, he’ll give us a reason to re-evaluate in the future.