Scouting Report: Texas vs. Baylor

NBA Prospects

1. Isaiah Austin (SO, Baylor): C, 7-1, 225

2. Cameron Ridley (SO, Texas): PF, 6-9, 285

3. Cory Jefferson (SR, Baylor): PF, 6-9, 220

4. Isaiah Taylor (FR, Texas): PG, 6-1, 170

5. Jonathan Holmes (JR, Texas): PF, 6-8, 240

6. Ricardo Gathers (SO, Baylor): F, 6-8, 270

7. Kenny Chery (JR, Baylor): PG, 5-11, 180

Next Tier

8. Javan Felix (SO, Texas): PG, 5-11, 195

9. Brady Heslip (SR, Baylor): SG, 6-2, 180

NBA Prospects

#21 Isaiah Austin — C, 7-1, 225
Sophomore, 20 years old

Season (27.6 mpg): 11 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 3.2 BPG
44% FG, 32% three-point, 3.9 FTA

— 12.3% block percentage (15th nationally)

Game: 7 pts, 3 ast, 2 rebs, 2blks, 4 fouls
1-10 FG, 0-3 three-point, 5-8 FT

Outlook: A top-10 recruit coming out of high school, Isaiah Austin has some of the best physical tools (relative to position) in all of college basketball.

Austin’s profile starts with his extraordinary physical makeup: 7-1 height, 7-3 wingspan and 9-3 standing reach. He appears tall when viewed on television, but man, it’s something else in person. He’s a gigantic, towering presence on the court, with several implicit advantages. Tall, long, very skinny, and appears to have big hands.

Skill wise, it’s been well documented that Austin possesses “guard skills.” During warm-ups, he displayed a pure jump shot to 18-feet; a tight handle on the perimeter; a quick first step to use that handle; and the ability to pull-up off the dribble. He truly appeared to be a basketball anomaly—a center with the skill set of a shooting guard—and I was excited to see how it would translate in the actual game.

However, by the end of the game, I was more unsettled than excited. Austin had a terrible performance; the gap between his possible upside and current skill level was wide and alarming.

The good: Great physical makeup. 7-1 height, 7-3 wingspan and 9-3 standing reach; not many like him. At his optimum playing ability, Austin’s size and handle make him a matchup nightmare. He’s equipped with a jump shot, and has the body to develop a post game.

The bad: His lack of polish (“raw”) can’t be overstated. It’s to the point you have to wonder if he’ll ever reach his potential.

Where to begin? Let’s start with toughness. I hate to ever question somebody’s toughness—I’m no judge or jury—but there’s no way around it: Austin was soft, timid, and lacked toughness vs. Texas. Watching on film, his performance was a microcosm of his career to date. Got out-muscled for post position, and fumbled the basketball when facing any contact. Austin was repeatedly pushed around by the smaller 6-9, 235-pound Connor Lammert. Weak drives, weak fight, and weak effort rebounding the basketball.

Austin finished 1-10 and scored 7 points. Instead of embracing contact, he shied away, resulting in several off balanced fade-away jump shots. Austin also lacked touch on his driving attempts—he would just fling the ball in the air, with no coordination or intent. On the perimeter, he had a slow release on his jump shot (starts his motion with the ball at his knees).

To his credit, Austin did contribute with a few blocked shots. Good timing and a focused defender. But still, too weak. He was eaten alive by the wide-bodied Cameron Ridley. Austin must get stronger to withstand the “first punch” in the post.

Austin’s blend of towering size and offensive versatility make him immensely intriguing. But a lack of toughness and an unpolished game are equally perplexing.

The statistics confirm Austin’s unrefined game; 5.6 rebounds is unacceptable considering his size and reach. Ditto for attempting only 9 shots per game. Too weak to battle in the post, and not polished enough to make a consistent impact on the perimeter.

Austin has the ingredients to be an NBA player, but at the very minimum, he’s still one year away.

Strengths
— Physical specimen (7-1 height, 7-3 wingspan, 9-3 standing reach)
— Good shot blocker (3.2 BPG; 12.3% block percentage – 15th nationally)
— Large upside
— Shooting and ball handling capabilities for 7-footer
— Benefit of the doubt? (Cory Jefferson and Austin do not compliment each other; Jefferson is an athletic hustle player, not a low post presence)
— Averaged 13 and 8 as a freshman

Defects/Areas of Improvement
— Too weak right now (225 pounds!)
— Lacks physicality and toughness (only 3.8 FTA per game)
— Lacks polish on perimeter (long wind-up on shot; shooting 30% on 3′s, 28% on jumpers)
— Shies away from contact
— Goes up for layups, not dunks
— Physically wouldn’t last in the NBA at this point
— Legally blind out of one eye (also a “strength”; certainly shows toughness and willpower)

Video

7 points vs. Texas

Misses vs. Texas (1-10 FG)

3-Point Shooting (poor)

Poor Driving Skills (what is he doing?)

“Short Range” struggles

— Lacks polish

#55 Cameron Ridley — PF, 6-9, 285
Sophomore, 20 years old

Season (25 mpg): 11.2 PPG, 8 RPG, 2.4 BPG
54% FG, 62% FT

Game: 20 pts, 10 rbs, 2 blks
7-13 FG, 6-9 FT

Outlook: Ridley is an extremely wide, strong and physical power forward. At 6-9, 285 pounds, he single-handedly dominated Isaiah Austin and Cory Jefferson, establishing position and finishing through any “contact” they exhibited.

Offensively, Ridley is an immovable object in the paint, and is always there to finish drop-offs . He also competes on the glass, with a “wide trunk” and long arms to accumulate offensive rebounds. His 13.4% offensive rebounding percentage ranks 53rd in the country. Equipped with strong hands and massive size, Ridley can easily finish with power and surprising bounce, resulting in tons of dunks. The ability to get off the ground (not too much, but enough to finish above the rim) is unique for a player of his size.

He establishes position, finishes through contact, and has a powerful drop step to increase his proximity to the basket.

That said, Ridley must improve a few areas of his game to compete at the next level.

Firstly, he could shed a few pounds to maximize his agility on both ends. Lighter feet and a more chiseled frame would develop his post game, thus expanding his range beyond five feet. Ridley doesn’t have an offensive arsenal,  besides elevating for a dunk. He finishes at a high rate, but he must be more than just a clean-up player at the next level. Nearly 100% of Ridley’s attempts are in the immediate vicinity of the basket. A 15-foot jump shot would stretch the defense, and open up the paint for his teammates.

Defensively, Ridley needs to lighten up in order to defend the pick and roll. He’s slow on his feet, and he gets exposed if taken away from the basket. He’s an excellent post defender right now, but he needs to extend his range to guard stretch forwards.

Additionally, Ridley shoots a putrid 62% from the free throw line.

Going forward, he should focus on chiseling out his frame to extend his game on both ends. He’s a physical player who provides inside scoring and rebounding, with a clear NBA frame. If he remains consistent, especially rebounding the ball, Ridley should have a chance to prove himself in the NBA.

Video

20 points vs. Baylor

Misses

Finishing Strong

Rebounds

— Strong, physical

Finishing With Space/Cutting

Transition (all 11 attempts)

— Nimble and quick for 6-9 size. Would get up the floor even faster if he shed a few pounds

Post Defense

#34 Cory Jefferson — PF, 6-9, 220
Senior, 23 years old.

Season (28 mpg): 13.2 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 1 APG, 1.4 BPG
51% FG, 65% FT

— 18.5 points, 12 rebounds, 2 blocks per 40 min (has the motor to play 40 min)

Game: 14 pts, 12 rbs, 2 ast, 2 blks
6-14 FG, 2-6 FT

*Fifth-year senior (redshirted in the 2010-11 season)

Outlook: Standing at 6-9 with a 7-foot wingspan, Jefferson has always been a freak athlete in the open court. But now, he’s showing signs of a developing half-court game.

A 220-pound power forward, he provides energy, activity and explosion on offense; and length and rebounding on defense. Though he often sets up in the post, Jefferson is best suited as a slasher. He has quick feet to spin off defenders, and is explosive to quickly bounce off the ground. Jefferson is excellent at finalizing plays, in transition and half court. He is also a hungry rebounder, with the proper length and activity to garner tip-ins and put backs.

That said, he must do more than just “finalize plays” if he wants to make the NBA. Now in his fifth season at Baylor, Jefferson is still without a reliable post game. Has he maxed out offensively?

As mentioned, he has a variation of spin moves, but lacks an offensive repertoire. No go-to moves. You can’t feed Jefferson in the post, and he doesn’t have the touch to shoot from outside. He’ll occasionally attempt a mid-range or 3-point jumper, but not with consistency. He’s 26-71 on jumpers this season (36%), and 10-26 from 3-point range. Obviously not reliable.

There are concerns defensively as well. With a skinny, 220-pound frame, Jefferson may have difficulty defending NBA power forwards. Jefferson and Isaiah Austin were obliterated by the bulkier Cameron Ridley in this game. Also, he is an unproven pick and roll defender. He’s more athletic than instinctual, but he will need to refine his instincts to be a steady hustle/energy type of player.

Even without a clearly defined skill set, Jefferson could contribute with rebounding, energy and athleticism. If you believe he can defend NBA power forwards—and I’m honestly not sure at this point—his athleticism and decent touch could provide ancillary value in the NBA.

Video

14 points vs. Texas

Misses vs. Texas (6-14)

Rebounds/Put-Backs

#1 Isaiah Taylor — PG, 6-1, 170
Freshman, 19 years old

Season (30 mpg): 13 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 4 APG, 1.1 SPG
40% FG, 75% FT

Game: 13 pts, 7 ast, 3 rbs, 1 stl, 1  blk, 3 to
5-11 FG, 0-0 three-point, 3-4 FT

Outlook: Taylor is one of the most “under the radar” freshman in the country. He’s emerged as the x-factor for this Texas team.

Right now, his game is predicated on penetrating the lane…and rising for a floater. Taylor has an impeccable floater, to the point that it’s his first, second and third option on offense. 53% of his shot attempts are of the “runner” variety—an inordinate amount—and he certainly forced this issue vs. Baylor. To his credit, it worked.

Taylor showcased a quick first step to penetrate the lane and finish. He has a high-arching floater, using difficult angles to get his shot off. One of the most consistent—and beautiful—floaters in the country. He creates space off the dribble, and finishes with ease. Taylor also has pesky and active hands, to come up with rebounds and steals.

All that being said, Taylor has a lot of room for improvement on offense. The next step is polishing his jump shot, and finishing with consistency around the basket. He’s 9-40 on jump shots this season; and he’s finishing only 44% at the rim, including an average 1 point per attempt.

Taylor already has a near-perfect touch inside the lane, and the upside to contribute in various offense and defensive categories. If he can add muscle to his frame, and develop a consistent jump shot, he should eventually garner NBA consideration as a combo guard. He’s already the focal point of Texas’ backcourt.

Video

13 points vs. Baylor

Misses (5-11)

Excellent Floater

Poor Jump Shot

Finishing Struggles

Simple Passes (assists)

#10 Jonathan Holmes — PF, 6-8, 240
Junior, 20 years old

Season (24 mpg): 13.3 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 1.3 BPG
52% FG, 37% three-point, 75% FT, 61% True Shooting

Game: 14 pts, 8 rbs, 3 blks
6-11 FG, 1-4 three-point

Outlook: Holmes is one of the more underrated players in the Big 12, if not the entire country. An agile and bouncy forward, he is a perfect compliment to the rugged Cameron Ridley on Texas’ frontline.

I didn’t know much about Holmes entering this game. But he quickly made an impact. In the small sample size, he showcased inside-outside scoring ability, and positional versatility on defense.

Offensively, he can score from the perimeter or the paint. Has a rapidly improving jump shot from all three levels, with a high release point to get a clear attempt. 38% of Holmes’ attempts this season are jump shots, where he’s converting 44% of his attempts. 41% of his attempts are around the basket—a byproduct of cuts, and nifty isolation moves from the foul line—where he’s converting 67%. He’s putting up tremendous numbers this season.

Quick look:

38% of attempts are jump shots; converting 44%; 1.12 PPP ranks in the 862nd percentile
57% around the basket/posting up; converting 57.5%; 1.43 PPP ranks in the 93rd percentile

He has great potential on the pick and pop, and solid athleticism rolling to the hoop.

Defensively, Holmes has good athleticism and quick feet to stay with his man on the interior. He is also long to contest on the perimeter.

All that being said, I must admit I do not fully understand Holmes’ game. Simply put, I didn’t focus on him close enough, or take detailed enough notes. On film and in person, though, he did a little bit of everything, ultimately having a huge impact. If he can sustain this level of production and efficiency, he should eventually surface as versatile forward who does a little bit of everything at a “good” level. I have some concerns about his quickness, but I’ll withhold judgment for now. Consistency is a separator in basketball, and Holmes is on the right path.

Video

14 points vs. Baylor

Misses (6-11)

Crashing Boards

Post Scoring (physical, strong, soft touch)

Shooting

Isolation Defense

#2 Ricardo Gathers — F, 6-8, 270,
Sophomore, 20 years old

Season (18.4 mpg): 7 PPG, 7.1 RPG
45% FG, 4.4 FTA

—18.9% offensive rebounding percentage (3rd nationally)
— 23.2% defensive rebounding percentage (65th)
— 9.6 free-throws per 40 minutes

Game: 1 pt, 4 rbs, 1 blk
0-1 FG

Outlook: Standing at 6-8 and 270 pounds, Gathers is physical forward who competes below the foul line. He has a football player’s build, with chiseled upper body strength and a “punch first” mentality.

Offensively, most of Gathers’ scoring opportunities come on drop-offs and angles. He gets into the seams of the defense with off-the-ball movement; once he receives the ball, he has a powerful drop step move to initiate contact and finish with either hand. He has a bully mentality, lowering his shoulder—regardless how big the defender is—and forcing his way to a basket. Solid athlete, decent explosion, and a soft touch allow him to finish against bigger players in the post.

Gathers is an excellent rebounder for his size. He posts the 3rd best defensive rebounding percentage and 65th best offensive rebounding percentage in the country. He cleverly gets in front of his man, lowers his trunk to establish position for a potential rebound, and has strong hands to corral the ball off the rim. Gathers plays bigger than his size, and it’s worked thus far in college. 30% of his attempts come off put-backs, and 20% come off cuts. Gathers hasn’t shown much shooting ability, as nearly 100% of his attempts are within 10 feet of the basket.

But at 6-8, can he sustain this style of “punisher” play at the next level? It’s possible he could do it in a DeJuan Blair kind of way, but I’m not certain. Operating solely in the paint may not be sustainable at 6-8; he has decent explosion, but won’t necessarily dunk on an opponent. A jump shot—regardless how elementary—may be required at the next level.

Also, what position is he best suited to guard? Gathers moves well laterally to stick with his man off the dribble and defend (switch, hedge, etc) on the pick and roll, but bigger players can shoot over him.

I anticipate Gathers will stay all four years at Baylor. If he can develop a mid-range jump shot during the process, he could become a DeJuan Blair/Tyler Hansbrough type of prospect. Any team can use hard-nosed toughness that Gathers provides. I’m just not sure if his size will ultimately hold him back.

Video

Rebounding

Finishing/Cutting

Interior Misses

#1 Kenny Chery — PG, 5-11, 180
Junior, 22 years old (via State Fair Community College in Sedalia, Mo)

*Attended JuCo because classes in his native Canada were deemed inadequate for the NCAA. Good student in high school – 3.2 GPA.

Season (28 mpg): 11 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 5 APG, 1 SPG
44% FG, 33% three-point

— 36% assist rate (16th nationally, 1st in Big 12)

Game: 27 pts, 3 rbs, 2 ast
8-17 FG, 5-7 three-point

Outlook: Chery is a lightning-quick point guard who can both score and get his teammates involved at a high rate. He is a savvy distributor, capable of drawing multiple defenders just to kick it out or dish inside. He’s also a big-time shot-maker, particularly off the dribble. Chery has a terrific handle to swivel his way around the court, and he can pull-up for a jump shot from anywhere.

42% of Chery’s offense is derived in the pick and roll. He can both score and distribute. A quick first step allows him to get around the screen, and due to his proficient shooting ability, he can draw defenders over screens and thus free up his roll man.

He’s also a confident shooter. Chery, who is very fast, can change direction or stop on a dime. He freezes the defense with his jump shot, and can knock down shots even if defenders are draped on him. Against Texas, he scored 27 points, including 5 threes. Most were contested jump shots, and the ones that weren’t contested, were a result of Chery creating separation with his handle. Good mix of fakes, hesitation moves and crossovers, which is needed for a player his size.

All that said, Chery is a diminutive 5-11, and a very skinny 180 pounds. He’s crafty with the ball, but sometimes he needs to over-dribble and force the issue. Such an approach probably isn’t sustainable in the NBA, where the clock is shorter, and the players are bigger/faster/stronger. Additionally, while Chery is a capable shooter, he struggles to finish at the basket. Only 20% of his attempts this season come around the basket, and his .93 points per attempt ranks in the bottom 75th percentile nationally. To his credit, he has a good floater, but I’m not sure it’s enough to fully compensate. He lacks a burst and explosion that you’d like to see in an undersized guard—a la, say, Reggie Jackson. Too skinny to enter the lane right now.

A combination of quickness, court vision, and long-range shooting makes Chery one of the more proficient point guards in the Big 12. But I’m not sold on him earning minutes in the NBA. He needs to develop his driving game, add muscle, and show he can run a team in the half court.

Video

27 points vs. Texas

Misses vs. Texas (8-17 FG)

Next Tier

#3 Javan Felix — PG, 5-11, 195
Sophomore, 19 years old

Season (26.4 mpg): 13 PPG, 2 RPG, 3 APG
37% FG, 35% three-point

Game: 21 pts, 3 ast
7-12 FG, 7-9 three-point

Outlook: Felix is terrific rhythm shooter, particularly on the catch and shoot. He can spot-up from anywhere on the court for a quick 3-pointer. 75% of his attempts are jumpers, and I’d estimate that 85% of those jumpers are released within one or two dribbles.

So yes, Felix is a good shooter who can score in bunches. But he’s undersized for a shooting guard (6-2), and lacks the athleticism to compete on the NBA level. He has yet to show the ability to be a primary playmaker, instead opting for a shoot-first mentality. He’s a capable but not particularly efficient shooter (34% from the field on 3-pointers), and not a great assist rate this season. If Felix can become a more efficient shooter—and more importantly, a better facilitator—we can revisit him as an NBA prospect. But he won’t make it as a 6-2 “gunner.”

Video

21 points vs. Baylor

Missed Shots (7-12)

Simple Passes (assists)

11 assists in a game vs. Michigan State last season

Transition struggles

Finishing Struggles

Floater (decent)

Floater (misses)

“Off the Dribble” Struggles

Catch and Shoot Success

#5 Brady Heslip — SG, 6-2, 180
Senior, 24 years old (via Boston College)

Season (26 mpg): 11.3 PPG, 1.4 RPG, 1 APG
45% FG, 47% three-point (6.6 attempts)

Game: 6 pts, 4 rbs

Outlook: Heslip is a great 3-point shooter—195 of his 229 shots this season are 3′s (85%).

He has a pure jump shot, often curling around screens for a quick catch-and-shoot.

That being said, he’s a 6-2 shooting guard, not athletic by any standard, and struggles to dribble the basketball. Simply put, he’s a one-dimensional shooter. He struggles to put the ball on the floor, let alone drive the lane. 71% of his jumpers are catch-and-shoot, where he excels. But on film, it’s apparent that Heslip struggles with the ball in his hands.

A good 3-point shooter at the college level, but too small, too slow, and un-athletic to crack an NBA roster.

Video

3-point shooting

Off Screens

Finishing Struggles

NBA Prospects

1. Isaiah Austin (SO, Baylor): C, 7-1, 225

2. Cameron Ridley (SO, Texas): PF, 6-9, 285

3. Cory Jefferson (SR, Baylor): PF, 6-9, 220

4. Isaiah Taylor (FR, Texas): PG, 6-1, 170

5. Jonathan Holmes (JR, Texas): PF, 6-8, 240

6. Ricardo Gathers (SO, Baylor): F, 6-8, 270

7. Kenny Chery (JR, Baylor): PG, 5-11, 180

Next Tier

8. Javan Felix (SO, Texas): PG, 5-11, 195

9. Brady Heslip (SR, Baylor): SG, 6-2, 180

NBA Prospects

#21 Isaiah Austin — C, 7-1, 225
Sophomore, 20 years old

Season (27.6 mpg): 11 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 3.2 BPG
44% FG, 32% three-point, 3.9 FTA

— 12.3% block percentage (15th nationally)

Game: 7 pts, 3 ast, 2 rebs, 2blks, 4 fouls
1-10 FG, 0-3 three-point, 5-8 FT

Outlook: A top-10 recruit coming out of high school, Isaiah Austin has some of the best physical tools (relative to position) in all of college basketball.

Austin’s profile starts with his extraordinary physical makeup: 7-1 height, 7-3 wingspan and 9-3 standing reach. He appears tall when viewed on television, but man, it’s something else in person. He’s a gigantic, towering presence on the court, with several implicit advantages. Tall, long, very skinny, and appears to have big hands.

Skill wise, it’s been well documented that Austin possesses “guard skills.” During warm-ups, he displayed a pure jump shot to 18-feet; a tight handle on the perimeter; a quick first step to use that handle; and the ability to pull-up off the dribble. He truly appeared to be a basketball anomaly—a center with the skill set of a shooting guard—and I was excited to see how it would translate in the actual game.

However, by the end of the game, I was more unsettled than excited. Austin had a terrible performance; the gap between his possible upside and current skill level was wide and alarming.

The good: Great physical makeup. 7-1 height, 7-3 wingspan and 9-3 standing reach; not many like him. At his optimum playing ability, Austin’s size and handle make him a matchup nightmare. He’s equipped with a jump shot, and has the body to develop a post game.

The bad: His lack of polish (“raw”) can’t be overstated. It’s to the point you have to wonder if he’ll ever reach his potential.

Where to begin? Let’s start with toughness. I hate to ever question somebody’s toughness—I’m no judge or jury—but there’s no way around it: Austin was soft, timid, and lacked toughness vs. Texas. Watching on film, his performance was a microcosm of his career to date. Got out-muscled for post position, and fumbled the basketball when facing any contact. Austin was repeatedly pushed around by the smaller 6-9, 235-pound Connor Lammert. Weak drives, weak fight, and weak effort rebounding the basketball.

Austin finished 1-10 and scored 7 points. Instead of embracing contact, he shied away, resulting in several off balanced fade-away jump shots. Austin also lacked touch on his driving attempts—he would just fling the ball in the air, with no coordination or intent. On the perimeter, he had a slow release on his jump shot (starts his motion with the ball at his knees).

To his credit, Austin did contribute with a few blocked shots. Good timing and a focused defender. But still, too weak. He was eaten alive by the wide-bodied Cameron Ridley. Austin must get stronger to withstand the “first punch” in the post.

Austin’s blend of towering size and offensive versatility make him immensely intriguing. But a lack of toughness and an unpolished game are equally perplexing.

The statistics confirm Austin’s unrefined game; 5.6 rebounds is unacceptable considering his size and reach. Ditto for attempting only 9 shots per game. Too weak to battle in the post, and not polished enough to make a consistent impact on the perimeter.

Austin has the ingredients to be an NBA player, but at the very minimum, he’s still one year away.

Strengths
— Physical specimen (7-1 height, 7-3 wingspan, 9-3 standing reach)
— Good shot blocker (3.2 BPG; 12.3% block percentage – 15th nationally)
— Large upside
— Shooting and ball handling capabilities for 7-footer
— Benefit of the doubt? (Cory Jefferson and Austin do not compliment each other; Jefferson is an athletic hustle player, not a low post presence)
— Averaged 13 and 8 as a freshman

Defects/Areas of Improvement
— Too weak right now (225 pounds!)
— Lacks physicality and toughness (only 3.8 FTA per game)
— Lacks polish on perimeter (long wind-up on shot; shooting 30% on 3′s, 28% on jumpers)
— Shies away from contact
— Goes up for layups, not dunks
— Physically wouldn’t last in the NBA at this point
— Legally blind out of one eye (also a “strength”; certainly shows toughness and willpower)

Video

7 points vs. Texas

Misses vs. Texas (1-10 FG)

3-Point Shooting (poor)

Poor Driving Skills (what is he doing?)

“Short Range” struggles

— Lacks polish

#55 Cameron Ridley — PF, 6-9, 285
Sophomore, 20 years old

Season (25 mpg): 11.2 PPG, 8 RPG, 2.4 BPG
54% FG, 62% FT

Game: 20 pts, 10 rbs, 2 blks
7-13 FG, 6-9 FT

Outlook: Ridley is an extremely wide, strong and physical power forward. At 6-9, 285 pounds, he single-handedly dominated Isaiah Austin and Cory Jefferson, establishing position and finishing through any “contact” they exhibited.

Offensively, Ridley is an immovable object in the paint, and is always there to finish drop-offs . He also competes on the glass, with a “wide trunk” and long arms to accumulate offensive rebounds. His 13.4% offensive rebounding percentage ranks 53rd in the country. Equipped with strong hands and massive size, Ridley can easily finish with power and surprising bounce, resulting in tons of dunks. The ability to get off the ground (not too much, but enough to finish above the rim) is unique for a player of his size.

He establishes position, finishes through contact, and has a powerful drop step to increase his proximity to the basket.

That said, Ridley must improve a few areas of his game to compete at the next level.

Firstly, he could shed a few pounds to maximize his agility on both ends. Lighter feet and a more chiseled frame would develop his post game, thus expanding his range beyond five feet. Ridley doesn’t have an offensive arsenal, besides elevating for a dunk. He finishes at a high rate, but he must be more than just a clean-up player at the next level. Nearly 100% of Ridley’s attempts are in the immediate vicinity of the basket. A 15-foot jump shot would stretch the defense, and open up the paint for his teammates.

Defensively, Ridley needs to lighten up in order to defend the pick and roll. He’s slow on his feet, and he gets exposed if taken away from the basket. He’s an excellent post defender right now, but he needs to extend his range to guard stretch forwards.

Additionally, Ridley shoots a putrid 62% from the free throw line.

Going forward, he should focus on chiseling out his frame to extend his game on both ends. He’s a physical player who provides inside scoring and rebounding, with a clear NBA frame. If he remains consistent, especially rebounding the ball, Ridley should have a chance to prove himself in the NBA.

Video

20 points vs. Baylor

Misses

Finishing Strong

Rebounds

— Strong, physical

Finishing With Space/Cutting

Transition (all 11 attempts)

— Nimble and quick for 6-9 size. Would get up the floor even faster if he shed a few pounds

Post Defense

#34 Cory Jefferson — PF, 6-9, 220
Senior, 23 years old.

Season (28 mpg): 13.2 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 1 APG, 1.4 BPG
51% FG, 65% FT

— 18.5 points, 12 rebounds, 2 blocks per 40 min (has the motor to play 40 min)

Game: 14 pts, 12 rbs, 2 ast, 2 blks
6-14 FG, 2-6 FT

*Fifth-year senior (redshirted in the 2010-11 season)

Outlook: Standing at 6-9 with a 7-foot wingspan, Jefferson has always been a freak athlete in the open court. But now, he’s showing signs of a developing half-court game.

A 220-pound power forward, he provides energy, activity and explosion on offense; and length and rebounding on defense. Though he often sets up in the post, Jefferson is best suited as a slasher. He has quick feet to spin off defenders, and is explosive to quickly bounce off the ground. Jefferson is excellent at finalizing plays, in transition and half court. He is also a hungry rebounder, with the proper length and activity to garner tip-ins and put backs.

That said, he must do more than just “finalize plays” if he wants to make the NBA. Now in his fifth season at Baylor, Jefferson is still without a reliable post game. Has he maxed out offensively?

As mentioned, he has a variation of spin moves, but lacks an offensive repertoire. No go-to moves. You can’t feed Jefferson in the post, and he doesn’t have the touch to shoot from outside. He’ll occasionally attempt a mid-range or 3-point jumper, but not with consistency. He’s 26-71 on jumpers this season (36%), and 10-26 from 3-point range. Obviously not reliable.

There are concerns defensively as well. With a skinny, 220-pound frame, Jefferson may have difficulty defending NBA power forwards. Jefferson and Isaiah Austin were obliterated by the bulkier Cameron Ridley in this game. Also, he is an unproven pick and roll defender. He’s more athletic than instinctual, but he will need to refine his instincts to be a steady hustle/energy type of player.

Even without a clearly defined skill set, Jefferson could contribute with rebounding, energy and athleticism. If you believe he can defend NBA power forwards—and I’m honestly not sure at this point—his athleticism and decent touch could provide ancillary value in the NBA.

Video

14 points vs. Texas

Misses vs. Texas (6-14)

Rebounds/Put-Backs

#1 Isaiah Taylor — PG, 6-1, 170
Freshman, 19 years old

Season (30 mpg): 13 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 4 APG, 1.1 SPG
40% FG, 75% FT

Game: 13 pts, 7 ast, 3 rbs, 1 stl, 1 blk, 3 to
5-11 FG, 0-0 three-point, 3-4 FT

Outlook: Taylor is one of the most “under the radar” freshman in the country. He’s emerged as the x-factor for this Texas team.

Right now, his game is predicated on penetrating the lane…and rising for a floater. Taylor has an impeccable floater, to the point that it’s his first, second and third option on offense. 53% of his shot attempts are of the “runner” variety—an inordinate amount—and he certainly forced this issue vs. Baylor. To his credit, it worked.

Taylor showcased a quick first step to penetrate the lane and finish. He has a high-arching floater, using difficult angles to get his shot off. One of the most consistent—and beautiful—floaters in the country. He creates space off the dribble, and finishes with ease. Taylor also has pesky and active hands, to come up with rebounds and steals.

All that being said, Taylor has a lot of room for improvement on offense. The next step is polishing his jump shot, and finishing with consistency around the basket. He’s 9-40 on jump shots this season; and he’s finishing only 44% at the rim, including an average 1 point per attempt.

Taylor already has a near-perfect touch inside the lane, and the upside to contribute in various offense and defensive categories. If he can add muscle to his frame, and develop a consistent jump shot, he should eventually garner NBA consideration as a combo guard. He’s already the focal point of Texas’ backcourt.

Video

13 points vs. Baylor

Misses (5-11)

Excellent Floater

Poor Jump Shot

Finishing Struggles

Simple Passes (assists)

#10 Jonathan Holmes — PF, 6-8, 240
Junior, 20 years old

Season (24 mpg): 13.3 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 1.3 BPG
52% FG, 37% three-point, 75% FT, 61% True Shooting

Game: 14 pts, 8 rbs, 3 blks
6-11 FG, 1-4 three-point

Outlook: Holmes is one of the more underrated players in the Big 12, if not the entire country. An agile and bouncy forward, he is a perfect compliment to the rugged Cameron Ridley on Texas’ frontline.

I didn’t know much about Holmes entering this game. But he quickly made an impact. In the small sample size, he showcased inside-outside scoring ability, and positional versatility on defense.

Offensively, he can score from the perimeter or the paint. Has a rapidly improving jump shot from all three levels, with a high release point to get a clear attempt. 38% of Holmes’ attempts this season are jump shots, where he’s converting 44% of his attempts. 41% of his attempts are around the basket—a byproduct of cuts, and nifty isolation moves from the foul line—where he’s converting 67%. He’s putting up tremendous numbers this season.

Quick look:

38% of attempts are jump shots; converting 44%; 1.12 PPP ranks in the 862nd percentile
57% around the basket/posting up; converting 57.5%; 1.43 PPP ranks in the 93rd percentile

He has great potential on the pick and pop, and solid athleticism rolling to the hoop.

Defensively, Holmes has good athleticism and quick feet to stay with his man on the interior. He is also long to contest on the perimeter.

All that being said, I must admit I do not fully understand Holmes’ game. Simply put, I didn’t focus on him close enough, or take detailed enough notes. On film and in person, though, he did a little bit of everything, ultimately having a huge impact. If he can sustain this level of production and efficiency, he should eventually surface as versatile forward who does a little bit of everything at a “good” level. I have some concerns about his quickness, but I’ll withhold judgment for now. Consistency is a separator in basketball, and Holmes is on the right path.

Video

14 points vs. Baylor

Misses (6-11)

Crashing Boards

Post Scoring (physical, strong, soft touch)

Shooting

Isolation Defense

#2 Ricardo Gathers — F, 6-8, 270,
Sophomore, 20 years old

Season (18.4 mpg): 7 PPG, 7.1 RPG
45% FG, 4.4 FTA

—18.9% offensive rebounding percentage (3rd nationally)
— 23.2% defensive rebounding percentage (65th)
— 9.6 free-throws per 40 minutes

Game: 1 pt, 4 rbs, 1 blk
0-1 FG

Outlook: Standing at 6-8 and 270 pounds, Gathers is physical forward who competes below the foul line. He has a football player’s build, with chiseled upper body strength and a “punch first” mentality.

Offensively, most of Gathers’ scoring opportunities come on drop-offs and angles. He gets into the seams of the defense with off-the-ball movement; once he receives the ball, he has a powerful drop step move to initiate contact and finish with either hand. He has a bully mentality, lowering his shoulder—regardless how big the defender is—and forcing his way to a basket. Solid athlete, decent explosion, and a soft touch allow him to finish against bigger players in the post.

Gathers is an excellent rebounder for his size. He posts the 3rd best defensive rebounding percentage and 65th best offensive rebounding percentage in the country. He cleverly gets in front of his man, lowers his trunk to establish position for a potential rebound, and has strong hands to corral the ball off the rim. Gathers plays bigger than his size, and it’s worked thus far in college. 30% of his attempts come off put-backs, and 20% come off cuts. Gathers hasn’t shown much shooting ability, as nearly 100% of his attempts are within 10 feet of the basket.

But at 6-8, can he sustain this style of “punisher” play at the next level? It’s possible he could do it in a DeJuan Blair kind of way, but I’m not certain. Operating solely in the paint may not be sustainable at 6-8; he has decent explosion, but won’t necessarily dunk on an opponent. A jump shot—regardless how elementary—may be required at the next level.

Also, what position is he best suited to guard? Gathers moves well laterally to stick with his man off the dribble and defend (switch, hedge, etc) on the pick and roll, but bigger players can shoot over him.

I anticipate Gathers will stay all four years at Baylor. If he can develop a mid-range jump shot during the process, he could become a DeJuan Blair/Tyler Hansbrough type of prospect. Any team can use hard-nosed toughness that Gathers provides. I’m just not sure if his size will ultimately hold him back.

Video

Rebounding

Finishing/Cutting

Interior Misses

#1 Kenny Chery — PG, 5-11, 180
Junior, 22 years old (via State Fair Community College in Sedalia, Mo)

*Attended JuCo because classes in his native Canada were deemed inadequate for the NCAA. Good student in high school – 3.2 GPA.

Season (28 mpg): 11 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 5 APG, 1 SPG
44% FG, 33% three-point

— 36% assist rate (16th nationally, 1st in Big 12)

Game: 27 pts, 3 rbs, 2 ast
8-17 FG, 5-7 three-point

Outlook: Chery is a lightning-quick point guard who can both score and get his teammates involved at a high rate. He is a savvy distributor, capable of drawing multiple defenders just to kick it out or dish inside. He’s also a big-time shot-maker, particularly off the dribble. Chery has a terrific handle to swivel his way around the court, and he can pull-up for a jump shot from anywhere.

42% of Chery’s offense is derived in the pick and roll. He can both score and distribute. A quick first step allows him to get around the screen, and due to his proficient shooting ability, he can draw defenders over screens and thus free up his roll man.

He’s also a confident shooter. Chery, who is very fast, can change direction or stop on a dime. He freezes the defense with his jump shot, and can knock down shots even if defenders are draped on him. Against Texas, he scored 27 points, including 5 threes. Most were contested jump shots, and the ones that weren’t contested, were a result of Chery creating separation with his handle. Good mix of fakes, hesitation moves and crossovers, which is needed for a player his size.

All that said, Chery is a diminutive 5-11, and a very skinny 180 pounds. He’s crafty with the ball, but sometimes he needs to over-dribble and force the issue. Such an approach probably isn’t sustainable in the NBA, where the clock is shorter, and the players are bigger/faster/stronger. Additionally, while Chery is a capable shooter, he struggles to finish at the basket. Only 20% of his attempts this season come around the basket, and his .93 points per attempt ranks in the bottom 75th percentile nationally. To his credit, he has a good floater, but I’m not sure it’s enough to fully compensate. He lacks a burst and explosion that you’d like to see in an undersized guard—a la, say, Reggie Jackson. Too skinny to enter the lane right now.

A combination of quickness, court vision, and long-range shooting makes Chery one of the more proficient point guards in the Big 12. But I’m not sold on him earning minutes in the NBA. He needs to develop his driving game, add muscle, and show he can run a team in the half court.

Video

27 points vs. Texas

Misses vs. Texas (8-17 FG)

Next Tier

#3 Javan Felix — PG, 5-11, 195
Sophomore, 19 years old

Season (26.4 mpg): 13 PPG, 2 RPG, 3 APG
37% FG, 35% three-point

Game: 21 pts, 3 ast
7-12 FG, 7-9 three-point

Outlook: Felix is terrific rhythm shooter, particularly on the catch and shoot. He can spot-up from anywhere on the court for a quick 3-pointer. 75% of his attempts are jumpers, and I’d estimate that 85% of those jumpers are released within one or two dribbles.

So yes, Felix is a good shooter who can score in bunches. But he’s undersized for a shooting guard (6-2), and lacks the athleticism to compete on the NBA level. He has yet to show the ability to be a primary playmaker, instead opting for a shoot-first mentality. He’s a capable but not particularly efficient shooter (34% from the field on 3-pointers), and not a great assist rate this season. If Felix can become a more efficient shooter—and more importantly, a better facilitator—we can revisit him as an NBA prospect. But he won’t make it as a 6-2 “gunner.”

Video

21 points vs. Baylor

Missed Shots (7-12)

Simple Passes (assists)

11 assists in a game vs. Michigan State last season

Transition struggles

Finishing Struggles

Floater (decent)

Floater (misses)

“Off the Dribble” Struggles

Catch and Shoot Success

#5 Brady Heslip — SG, 6-2, 180
Senior, 24 years old (via Boston College)

Season (26 mpg): 11.3 PPG, 1.4 RPG, 1 APG
45% FG, 47% three-point (6.6 attempts)

Game: 6 pts, 4 rbs

Outlook: Heslip is a great 3-point shooter—195 of his 229 shots this season are 3′s (85%).

He has a pure jump shot, often curling around screens for a quick catch-and-shoot.

That being said, he’s a 6-2 shooting guard, not athletic by any standard, and struggles to dribble the basketball. Simply put, he’s a one-dimensional shooter. He struggles to put the ball on the floor, let alone drive the lane. 71% of his jumpers are catch-and-shoot, where he excels. But on film, it’s apparent that Heslip struggles with the ball in his hands.

A good 3-point shooter at the college level, but too small, too slow, and un-athletic to crack an NBA roster.

Video

3-point shooting

Off Screens

Finishing Struggles