St. John’s 67, Bucknell 63
Tuesday, November 19, 2013 | 8:30 p.m. EST | Carnesecca Arena (Queens, NY)
St. John’s 2-1, Bucknell 2-2
Recap: Led by Cameron Ayers’ 16 first-half points, Bucknell jumped out to a 35-32 halftime lead. The Bison shot 54 percent in the first half, and with St. John’s rim protector Chris Obekpa playing only eight minutes, Bucknell scored 20 points in the paint. In the second half, though, Obekpa dominated the paint defensively, and Red Storm guards made shots to eventually take the lead. Junior guard Phil Greene IV led St. John’s with 16 points, Jakarr Sampson added 11 points and 6 rebounds, and Obekpa recorded 6 points, 6 rebounds and 7 blocks in 25 minutes. Bucknell gave a valiant effort, but St. John’s leveraged its size and athleticism to speed up the game and disrupt Bucknell’s half-court, methodical approach.
*St. John’s shot 4-for-15 from 3-point range (26%). They are now 6-44 (14%) for the season.
Steve Lavin (Head Coach, St. John’s): 310-505-9439 (cell)
NBA Prospects (ranked in order of performance/potential shown):
NBA Prospects (Tier 1 – no definitive order)
Rysheed Jordan (FR, St. John’s): PG, 6-4, 185
Jakarr Sampson (Soph, St. John’s): SF, 6-8, 205
Chris Obekpa (Soph, St. John’s): F, 6-9, 225
Tier 2
4) Sir’Dominic Pointer (JR, St. John’s): SF, 6-5, 198
5) Phil Greene IV (JR, St. John’s): G, 6-2, 185
Tier 3
6) Cameron Ayers (SR, Bucknell): G, 6-5, 205
7) D’Angelo Harrison (JR, St. John’s): G, 6-3, 210
*8) Orlando Sanchez (Senior, 25 years old, St. John’s): F, 6-9, 220
—
Tier 1
Rysheed Jordan — Freshman
PG, 6-4, 185
Season (18 mpg): 4.3 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 2.3 APG
Game (14 minutes): 7 points, 2 assists
Background: Steve Lavin is intentionally assimilating Jordan at a slow pace. This is because Jordan, the best player in Philadelphia last season and a local star, has a lot on his mind. His mother is currently undergoing treatment for a heart condition, and Jordan—who is the oldest of seven children—was practically the “man of the house” throughout high school, caring for and tending to his siblings. He is now away from home, which is good because he can fully concentrate on school/basketball. But the change has also brought along some stress.
Outlook: Jordan is a big, strong and physical lead guard with great athleticism and the potential to be a terrific on-ball defender. He has the requisite size and physical tools for NBA consideration, and for Steve Lavin to start Jordan ahead of several experienced guards is telling of his potential. He’s not a one-and-done player, but there’s no way he stays four years at St. John’s.
Offensively, Jordan is always in “attack mode,” using his size and handle to get in the paint and finish through contact. He has the potential to be a dominant isolation player who can also finalize plays in the open court. Jordan’s large hands and quick first step allow him to “glide with the ball,” as he can go coast-to-coast and finish at the rim in four dribbles. Although he has scoring ability, Jordan is also a gifted passer, with impressive court vision and the ability to get his teammates open looks from all over the court. He was a combo guard in high school, but he’s trying to become a full-time point guard at St. John’s.
Jordan’s biggest weakness right now is his jump shot. He’s not comfortable shooting the ball from any range. He prefers to overpower smaller guards, or swing the ball and create movement. Jordan has struggled shooting the ball thus far at St. John’s (2-8 jump shots, 5-22 overall), but it’s early in his career and four games is a small sample size.
Defensively, Jordan has the length and size to stay with most point guards. However, he’s obviously not there yet, averaging 3 fouls per game in only 18 minutes. I’m not sure how good of a defender Jordan is right now, but he possesses the tools for me to be optimistic.
Overall, I could see Jordan having a solid freshman season, learning on the go while being the floor general of a talented St. John’s team. Then, in year two, if he can fix up his jump shot while fully honing his “killer instinct,” Jordan could be the most dominant point guard in the Big East—and emerge in the national conversation.
Video: Jordan’s 17 missed field goals this season
Video: Jordan’s five made field goals this season
Video: Transition assists
Jakarr Sampson — Sophomore, 21 years old (at time of Draft)
SF, 6-8, 205
Season: 15 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 53% Field Goal
Game: 11 points, 6 rebounds
Outlook: Standing at 6-8 with a 6-11 wingspan, Sampson is a freakishly athletic swingman with great length and a quick first step. He has great potential finishing in transition, rebounding from the wing, and developing his touch inside the paint. That said, he’s frail, has a suspect handle, poor jump shot, and doesn’t seem to have much of an offensive skill set inside the 3-point line.
Sampson primarily played in the paint last season (97% of his shots were inside 17-feet), so first and foremost, he will need to expand his game to play small forward at the next level.
Sampson is a good player with obvious upside, evidenced by averaging 14.9 points and 6.7 rebounds en route to winning Big East Freshman of the Year last season. He plays with a strong motor and is a tough cover due to his length and open-court threat. But his weaknesses are obvious, and at this point—very early in his sophomore season—he’s more of a project than a polished player. After flirting with the NBA Draft last season, Sampson needs to showcase progress in his game this year.
Offense
Field Goals
Although he’s disoriented on offense (in terms of ball handling and coordination in isolation situations), Sampson did showcase a nice touch with his right hand vs. Bucknell. He seems to have an idea of what he’s trying to do with the ball, but he hasn’t perfected any go-to moves. Against Bucknell, Sampson would often receive the ball, try to make a move, get stifled, then pick up his dribble. With his size and athleticism, it was a little concerning that Sampson did not “take over”—or even stand out—at any point in the game.
I think Sampson’s intrigue stems from his ability to make a few “wow” plays every game, when he showcases his NBA athleticism and length.
Sampson was fairly averse to “going left” as a freshman. On drives last season, he went right on 78% of possessions and went left on only 22% of possessions, where his 1.33 PPP going left ranked in the bottom 95 percent nationally. Furthermore, when Sampson received the ball on the left side of the court last season, he drove toward the middle 73% of the time (avoiding going left). And when he received the ball on the right side of the court, he attacked the baseline (using his right hand) 61% of the time. This is perhaps something to monitor throughout the season.
Shooting
Sampson can post up smaller defenders, and is a terror in the open court. However, he struggles shooting the ball — his .76 points per possession on jump shots last season ranked in the 33rd percentile nationally, and his .75 points per possession on catch-and-shoot attempts ranked in the bottom 75th percentile. Defenders often sag off and let him shoot, making it tough for him to score off the dribble. There’s still a lot of time for Sampson to showcase an improved jump shot this season, but I didn’t see it vs. Bucknell.
Transition
Sampson quickly gets up the floor and is a threat to spot-up, receive the ball in stride or finish an alley-oop. He’ll need to add muscle to finish through contact, but he’s a great asset in transition.
Activity / Put-Backs
Offensive rebounds and put-backs composed 10.3% of Sampson’s shot attempts last season, where he posted a very solid 1.19 points per possession (72nd percentile). Statistics aside, though, it’s easy to see on film — he’s long, active, athletic, and plays in the post. Sampson can make you pay if you don’t box him out.
Defense
Sampson’s length and lateral quickness allow him to stay with his man and contest shots on the perimeter. His .769 points per possession defending spot-up shots last season ranked in the 72nd percentile nationally, and his .52 PPP in isolation situations ranked in the 81st percentile. If he can get stronger, he should be able to defend NBA small forwards. If he doesn’t, he will get bullied in the post, and probably won’t see minutes in the League.
Overall
Simply put, if Sampson can add weight and showcase an improved jump shot, he has the athleticism and rebounding ability to get drafted. That’s a big “if”, though, as there’s so many things that go into correcting a jump shot. If he continues to be a poor shooter and again shoots 97% of his shots inside 17-feet this season, it will be difficult for him to crack an NBA rotation.
Chris Obekpa — Sophomore, 20 years old
F, 6-9, 225
Season: 4.7 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 4.0 BPG
Game: 6 points, 6 rebounds, 7 blocks
Outlook: Obekpa is a 6-9, 225 pound forward who is arguably the best rim protector in college basketball. His shot-blocking prowess has more to do with exceptional timing and bounce than with size and length. Obekpa is in the Larry Sanders mold, in terms of shot-blocking: he stays in front of the opposition, waits for his man to shoot, and then swats the ball before it reaches its apex. It’s very impressive to watch in person.
Obekpa averaged 4 blocks in 26 minutes per game last season, and is averaging 4 blocks in 20 minutes per game this season. His 15.8 block percentage (percentage of opponent’s field goal attempts blocked while Obekpa was on the floor) was the best in the country last season, and his 21.6 block percentage through three games this season ranks third.
Shot-blocking (small sample)
Offensive rebounds/put-backs
Fifty percent of Obekpa’s shot attempts this season have come on offensive rebounds. He establishes position in the paint, gets off the ground quickly, and has a tireless motor to compete for loose balls. Obekpa still needs to work on his touch and polish in the paint, but at 20 years old, he’s already a consistent offensive rebounder.
Obekpa can dunk the ball from a stationary position in the paint…
…but he needs to score more consistently in the paint. He has showed flashes of a 15-foot jumpshot, and if he can continue to look for his shot on offense, he could develop into a two-way NBA prospect. His defense is obliviously there, but in my opinion, the development of his 17-footer is critical to his NBA potential. In a limited sample size last season (he used only 10.3% of St. John’s shots while on the floor last season), Obekpa posted an excellent .99 points per possession from 17-feet and in, but a terrible .42 PP from 17-feet to the 3-point line (ranking in the 13th percentile nationally).
Video: 17-feet and in makes
Video: 17-feet to 3-point struggles
Overall
With the ability to single-handedly anchor a college defense, good physical attributes and offensive upside, it appears Obekpa is just scratching the surface of his potential. With an expanded role in his sophomore season, Obekpa should look to take strides offensively. I want to watch him against better competition before definitely appraising his NBA potential, but my gut tells me Obekpa will emerge on the national radar this season and lean towards entering the 2014 Draft.
Tier 2
Sir’Dominic Pointer — Junior, 22 years old
SF, 6-5, 198
Quincy Lewis (High School Coach, Quality Education Academy): 801-368-4622
Season: 5.3 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 2.3 APG, 1.0 BPG
Game: 4 points, 6 rebounds, 6 assists, 3 steals
Outlook: Many believe this is a make-or-break year for Pointer, in terms of taking strides in his offensive game and showcasing his development into an NBA prospect. Standing at 6-5 with a 6-8 wingspan, Pointer is a smooth athlete with good length and a penchant to compete on every possession. He’s a strong on-ball defender, and feeds off his defense to make plays in the open court.
Pointer’s offensive game is predicated on cutting/rebounding/spotting up in transition, but not much more. In other words, he’s been a poor shooter thus far in his carer, unable to create off the dribble or shoot from range, which in turn enables defenders to sag off and make him a non-threat in half-court possessions.
Poor Shooting vs. Bucknell
Pointer has a flat arch on his jump shot, and often shoots off balance. We’re only three games in, but for me, Pointer’s perimeter progress is essential—maybe even paramount—in projecting his development.
Transition
Pointer posted a solid 1.1 points per possession in transition last season, ranking in the top 60th percentile nationally. He’s equipped with NBA athleticism, and can get ahead of the defense with ease. In terms of good-defense-leading-to-transition-opportunities, on film Pointer rivals just about anyone. His versatility shines through in this regard.
Isolation Defense
Pointer has the length to disrupt shooters, and is disciplined to stay between his man and the basket. If he does get beat, he has the length to recover and often block the shot attempt from behind.
Pointer was an all-around solid defender last season. His 0.69 points per possession on all defensive plays ranked in the 81st percentile nationally, and he ranked in the 86th percentile in isolation situations. Pointer held opponents to a 29.4% field goal percentage on jump shots, 22.2% on runners, 40.7% around the basket and 31.6% in post-up situations. I’m not saying he’s a defensive juggernaut, but defense is not an area of concern with Pointer.
Phil Greene IV — Junior
G, 6-2, 190
Season: 8.7 PPG, 1.3 APG, 1.7 RPG
Game: 16 points, 2 steals
7-12 shooting
Outlook: Greene seems to be a permanent starter in Steve Lavin’s constant lineup changes. He is a crafty ball handler with a terrific jump shot off the dribble. Undersized and lacking muscle, nearly all of Greene’s shot attempts are jump shots (80% of his attempts last season). Greene doesn’t appear to possess the athleticism to compensate for his diminutive frame, but he’s perfected a high-arching runner, which he converted 50 percent of the time last season.
Greene will be viewed as a point guard in the eyes of the NBA, but his assist numbers in three years (2.9, 2.6, 1.3) show he’s probably not fit for the position. Even with his impressive game vs. Bucknell, all things considered, right now Greene’s NBA upside seems fairly limited.
Video: Off the dribble shooting
Video: Runners
The Rest
Cameron Ayers — Senior, 22 years old
G, 6-5, 205
Season: 17.8 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 2.0 APG
Game: 25 points, 5 rebounds, 0 assists
Outlook: I don’t think Ayers is an NBA prospect, but I’m certain he’ll earn a nice paycheck somewhere next year. He single-handedly dissected St. John’s’ defense, scoring off the pick-and-roll, finding driving lanes, keeping his handle alive to change direction (check out his move on Chris Obekpa below), and converted difficult pull-up jumpers. The 6-5 senior scored 25 points on 9-15 shooting, including three 3-pointers.
Ayers is a little slow, seemed to get flustered handling the ball under pressure, and can’t really finish above the rim. But he performed admirably vs. St. John’s, enough to consistently check his box scores/game tape going forward.
Video: Ayers beats Obekpa
Video: Half-court vs. St. John’s
D’Angelo Harrison — Junior
G, 6-3, 210
Season: 21.3 PPG, 4 RPG, 2.3 APG
Game: 12 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists
3-13 FG, 1-7 three-pointer
Outlook: Harrison had a rough end to his sophomore season, as he was suspended for the final six games of the season. Harrison is a small, high-energy guard who can score in bunches from the perimeter. He has good feel for the game and can break the defense off the dribble, but lacks elite quickness and athleticism for the position. He is also a streaky player — the 3-13 line against Bucknell is a microcosm of his hit-or-miss impact.
Video: Pick-and-roll
Video: Missed shots vs. Bucknell
His size also gives him trouble in defending bigger shooting guards. Harrison’s .99 points per possession guarding spot-up jump shots last season ranked in the bottom 70th percentile nationally. It will be difficult for him to compete defensively on the NBA level.
Video: Defending jump shots
Orlando Sanchez — Senior, 26 years old
F, 6-9, 220
Season: 6.3 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 1.3 APG
Game: 6 points, 5 rebounds, 4 blocks, 3 assists
Background: After working—both in the Dominican Republic and Spain—as a teenager to support his family, Sanchez graduated high school at the age of 21 and then enrolled at Monroe College (JC). He then transferred from Monroe to St. John’s and was initially ruled ineligible by the NCAA last fall. But the decision was eventually reversed, and Sanchez was allowed to suit up for the Red Storm. The eligibility issue was nothing nefarious; Sanchez simply logged four minutes of playing time with the Dominican Republic national team in 2010, but since he was over the age of 21, those four minutes counted as one full year of college eligibility.
The decision was reversed, and after graduating high school at the age of 21 and then playing at Monroe College for two years, Sanchez is finally at St. John’s.
Outlook: I’d never heard of Sanchez before watching him vs. Bucknell. And after observing him compete for only 23 minutes against a mid-major team, I do not have much of a feel for his NBA prospects.
I’m not saying he’s an NBA player, but to me, even at the age of 25, Sanchez should at least be viewed through an NBA lens. He has solid agility and quickness for his 6-9 frame, can put the ball on the floor inside the 3-point line, and has the power to dunk through defenders. Physically, Sanchez stood out like a 12th grader playing with the Freshmen Team… True, that kind of was the reality, but still, Sanchez has a unique skill set, and in his first full season at St. John’s, I think it’s worth the time and resources to take a look at him.
*Ages calculated at time of 2014 Draft