10. Roberto Nelson | Oregon State | Senior, 22 years old
SG, 6-4, 195
Last season (31.3 MPG): Last season: 17.8 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 2.8 APG, 22.4 PER
Mobile: 805-698-7838
Outlook: Standing at 6-4, Roberto Nelson is a sharpshooting guard with terrific range on his jump shot and the ability to score in bunches. Nelson is a terrific spot-up shooter, and is excellent coming off screens. He quickly sets his feet and can rise for a shot.
Problem is—and I don’t mean to sound insubstantial or dismissive—Nelson is athletically challenged, and the scope of his NBA potential doesn’t extend past being a good shooter. He doesn’t have a noteworthy dribble-drive game, is a poor on-ball defender, is an average passer/rebounder, and has difficulty handling the ball against pressure. Perhaps Nelson could carve out a niche as a spot-up sharpshooter in the NBA, but as of now it seems unlikely.
Shot Attempt Breakdown: 56.5% Jump Shots | 34.6% Around Basket | 5.2% Post Ups | 3.7%
STRENGTHS
Spot Up
Nelson shot an excellent 1.088 points per possession on spot-up situations, ranking in the 83rd percentile nationally. Spot-up shooting is Nelson’s biggest strength.
Nelson can find open spots within the defense, and is always ready to release. He has solid shooting form, and can heat up to either extend or shrink a lead in a matter of minutes. There’s not much to criticize about Nelson’s shooting.
NEEDS TO IMPROVE
Transition
Nelson posted a below average .938 points per possession “around the basket”, ranking in the bottom 25th percentile nationally. Faster and more athletic defenders can easily disrupt Nelson’s attempts at the rim. Again, Nelson can shoot open 3′s, but he struggles to create off the dribble/facilitate for teammates.
Pick-and-Roll
Nelson’s lack of quickness negatively affects his pick-and-roll ability. He recorded an extraordinarily high 20.4 turnover rate on pick-and-rolls last season, and shot 32 percent on such plays. Defenders can easily blitz-trap Nelson, making him pick up his dribble almost automatically.
Pick-and-Roll Defense
I wouldn’t be so hard on Nelson if, for all of his offensive shortcomings, he were at least a decent defender. But he struggled on defense as well last season. In defending the pick-and-roll, Nelson doesn’t get down in a proper defensive stance, has trouble moving his feet laterally, hardly applies resistance, and—due to a combination of technique and a skinny frame—can get out-muscled. Nelson’s lack of speed automatically calls for the big man to “switch,” which will often causes a mismatch. Not a good look here.
OVERALL
Nelson is a very tough kid (his mother passed away when he was younger, and his father has been in prison for most of Roberto’s college career, yet he’s managed to keep his focus and play well), but his upside doesn’t extend past being a good spot-up shooter. In my opinion, it will be difficult for him to carve out a nice in the NBA.