Louisville 83, Rutgers 76
Saturday, January 4, 2014 | 6 p.m. EST | RAC (Piscataway, NJ)
Louisville 13-2, Rutgers 7-8
Recap: Rutgers got off to a strong start, leading 28-24 with three minutes left in the first half. But Louisville’s full-court press—combined with its superior skill—was too much for Rutgers to overcome. Louisville senior Russ Smith scored 22 points (14-16 FT), Wayne Blackshear contributed 13 points and 4 rebounds, and freshman guard Terry Rozier scored a season-high 14 points. Myles Mack led Rutgers with 19 points, but he was 1-7 from 3. This was a chippy game, featuring an unusually-high 62 personal fouls.
Previous Louisville Evaluation
Previous Rutgers Evaluation
NBA Prospects (in order of performance/potential shown)
1. Montrezl Harrell (SO, Louisville): PF, 6-8, 230
2. Russ Smith (SR, Louisville): G, 6-0, 165
3. Terry Rozier (FR, Louisville): G, 6-1, 165
Next Tier
4. Chris Jones (JR, Louisville): PG, 5-10, 175
5. Kadeem Jack (JR, Rutgers): SF/PF, 6-9, 230
6. Wayne Blackshear (JR, Louisville): G/F, 6-5, 210
7. Junior Etou (FR, Rutgers): F, 6-7, 225
8. Wally Judge (SR, Rutgers): PF, 6-9, 250
Not NBA Caliber
9. Myles Mack (JR, Rutgers): PG, 5-9, 175
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NBA Prospects
1. Montrezl Harrell — PF, 6-8, 235
Sophomore, 20 years old
Season (25 mpg): 11.9 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 1.3 SPG
Game: 6 points, 7 rebounds, 3 steals, 5 fouls
Outlook: Harrell committed five fouls in only 20 minutes of play, so he was relegated to the bench for most of the game. He finished with 6 points (3-5), 7 rebounds and 3 steals.
Once again, he showcased NBA athleticism and mobility in the open court, and continued to attack the boards. But he also showcased a broken jump shot. For the season, Harrell is shooting 27% on only 15 jump shot attempts, per Synergy.
Still, his strengths were apparent. Harrell is very bouncy, can block shots and finish in the paint. I’m not yet sure how he fits into an NBA offense (especially in the half-court), but he has NBA tools and he’s still very young. Harrell belongs in the NBA, but to what extent/role I’m not yet sure. I look forward to watching him compete again.
Video: Points vs. Rutgers
2. Russ Smith — G, 6-0, 165
Senior, 23 years old
Season (28 mpg): 18 PPG, 4.8 APG, 3.1 RPG
Game: 22 points, 4 rebounds, 1 assist, 5 turnovers
Outlook: A solid performance for Smith, in terms of scoring the basketball. He was only 4-11 from the field, but he accumulated 16 free throw attempts. Smith finished in transition, converted mid-range jumpers, and finished near the basket. His scoring ability was on display, though it was against the 238th-ranked defense.
Smith averages nearly five assists per game, and his 34.5% assist rate ranks 35th in the country. His improved assist numbers (2.9 APG in 30 MPG last year; 4.8 APG in 28 MPG this year), combined with proven pick-and-roll ability, prompts the thought of Smith playing point guard in the NBA. Smith is still erratic at times, but he’s obviously made a concentrated effort to become more of a point guard, which is a step in the right direction if nothing else.
Video: Points vs. Rutgers
3. Terry Rozier — G, 6-1, 165
Freshman, 20 years old
Season (17.5 mpg): 6.6 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 1.8 APG
Game: 14 points, 2 steals, 0 assists
Outlook: This was my first time ever seeing Rozier play, at least in terms of “real minutes.” In 21 minutes off the bench, he scored 14 points (7-7 FT), and showcased potential as a big-time scorer.
Rozier seemed lost and out of control at times, struggling to process the game. But he’s only a freshman, and I expect he’ll adapt to the game faster than most.
He has a smooth jump shot, long arms, and his scoring gifts are already apparent. He has upside as a wing rebounder and perimeter defender. Once he develops his off-the-dribble game, Rozier could become very difficult to stop. He’ll most likely take over at PG next season, and he has the playmaking abilities to make it work. I’m not sure what kind of passer he is, but if Rozier can continue to grow and also add muscle to his frame, he should emerge on the Draft radar as early as next season. He could average 17-20 points per game next season.
Video: Shooting
Video: Around the Basket
Right now, Rozier struggles to finish at the rim. A lack of explosion and touch. Small sample size, but his .95 points per “around the basket” attempt ranks in the bottom 75th percentile nationally. Given his long arms and smooth handle, though, I think he’ll improve in this regard.
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Next Tier
4. Chris Jones — PG, 5-10, 175
Junior, 22 years old (via Northwest Florida State Junior College)
Season (26.1 mpg): 12 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 2.9 APG
Game: 6 points, 3 steals, 2 assists
Outlook: The more I watch Jones, the more I question his NBA potential. He didn’t show much of anything vs. Rutgers.
Jones is a good spot-up shooter, but hasn’t had the all-around impact many expected. He’s a solid pick-and-roll threat and he can score in isolation, but it’s nothing overly impressive at this point. After scoring 18 points vs. Kentucky, Jones has scored 5, 6, 2 and 2 to begin conference play.
His diminutive size and lack of production make me wonder how much upside he has left. He’s a strong guard with good scoring instincts, but I’m not sure I see him at the NBA level.
5. Kadeem Jack — SF/PF, 6-9, 230
Junior, 21 years old
Season (29 mpg): 14 PPG, 7 RPG, 1.5 BPG
Game: 18 points, 6 rebounds
8-12 FG
Outlook:
Jack has improved incrementally every season, which is an encouraging sign.
Freshman: 8.3 MPG, 1.2 PPG, 1.6 RPG, 26% FG
Sophomore: 18.2 MPG, 5.7 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 46% FG
Junior: 29.4 MPG, 14 PPG, 7 RPG, 53% FG
That being said, Jack is still more “prospect” than “polished.”
He’s a power forward trapped in a small forward’s body. Standing at a wiry 6-9, Jack can finish around the basket, but he struggles to create for himself on the perimeter. Instead, he scores on “effort” plays—slashing to the hoop, put-backs, taking the open jump shot, etc.
He has NBA athleticism, but his lack of perimeter skills relegate him to the interior, which doesn’t bode well for a 6-9, 230-pound player. He’s young for his age, so if he can extend his game, Jack has an outside chance to develop into a fringe prospect as a senior.
Video: Recent Points (versatile, scoring)
Video: Offensive Rebounds
Video: Transition (terrific athlete)
Video: Missed Jump Shots
Video: Made Jump Shots
6. Wayne Blackshear — G/F, 6-5, 210
Junior, 22 years old
Season (20.4 mpg): 9.5 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 0.8 APG
Game: 13 points, 4 rebounds, 2 blocks/assists/steals
Outlook: It’s been difficult to evaluate Blackshear because he’s played out of position for long stretches in games. He was a shooting guard in high school, but often plays forward in Louisville’s lineup.
Still, it’s apparent that Blackshear is a physical player who can finish through contact. He is also a tough rebounder. Developing jump shot, and when you look at his complete profile, on paper he has the making of an NBA prospect. He’s a former McDonald’s All-American, with NBA size/strength to finish through contact.
However, Blackshear is not consistent with his production, and often appears out of position on the court. Most concerning though, is that Blackshear has never distinguished himself on the court. He’s good—but not elite—in any facet right now.
Video: Points vs. Rutgers
7. Junior Etou — F, 6-7, 225
Freshman, 22 years old*
Season (21.3 mpg): 5.1 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 1 BPG, 3 Fouls
Game: 9 points, 4 rebounds
*Etou’s age was a controversial topic throughout high school, as he was reportedly 20 years old during his senior year. He was also ineligible for the first six games of this season because he allegedly received “impermissible benefits.”
*Thunder forward Serge Ibaka is reportedly Etou’s cousin.
Outlook: It was difficult to fully evaluate Etou because most of his points came from alley-oops. It was clear he’s a good athlete who rebounds and defends on every possession, but that’s all I could glean.
Etou plays with an “in your face” attitude, refusing to back down from anybody. His skill set is raw, but he runs the floor, provides energy and rebounds. He’s only been playing basketball for a few years (started in his late teens), so he’s certainly a moldable player with room to grow. But he will be 22 years old at season’s end, so improvement needs to come quickly.
Going forward, he needs to develop some semblance of a jump shot — Per Synergy, he’s 1-13 on 18-foot jumpers this season, compared to 6-13 from mid-range and interior. Etou needs to develop his handle and jump shot to have a chance.
Video: Scoring this season
Video: Shooting struggles
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8. Wally Judge — PF, 6-9, 250
Senior, 23 years old
Season (24 mpg): 8.7 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 3.8 Fouls
Game: 12 points, 9 rebounds, 5 blocks
Outlook: A former McDonald’s All-American, Judge was once considered a first-round NBA Draft pick. But that was before he transferred schools, before he sat out a year, and before his development plateaued.
At age 23, he’s at Rutgers trying to salvage his career. Judge still possesses many of the same traits that put him on the NBA radar—athleticism, physicality at the power forward position, energy and a penchant to rebound—but he still struggles to bring it all together.
He disappears for long stretches, and can hardly create offense for himself. He also fouls too much, averaging 3.8 fouls in only 24 minutes per game. He’s been foul-prone throughout college. Judge is talented; but at 23 years old, and with five years of college under his belt, you have to wonder if he’s already realized his ceiling. I don’t see it happening.
Video: Poor jump shooting
Per Synergy, Judge has only attempted two jump shots all season. His attempts are almost exclusively within 10 feet of the basket.
Video: Points around the basket
Judge is shooting 60% around the basket. He can finish with either hand at—and above—the rim. In this regard, he has potential as a pick-and-roll screener.
Video: Post-Ups Made
Judge is shooting 55% on traditional back to the basket post-ups. Still, he’s only attempting six shots per game, so it is a small sample size.
Not NBA Caliber
9. Myles Mack — PG, 5-9, 175
Junior, 21 years old
Season (32 mpg): 16.3 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 4.4 APG
Game: 10 points, 7 rebounds, 6 assists
Outlook: I don’t see the NBA in Mack’s future. At only 5-9, he forces shots, and is a score-first point guard who, quite frankly, isn’t even a great scorer. He lacks the size and skill to play in the NBA
Mack jacked up shots in both games I watched — he shot 3-11 vs. Temple, and shot 6-13 (1-7 from 3-point range) vs. Louisville. He didn’t facilitate much for his teammates, drove into traffic carelessly, and was out of control. He’s a volume shooter who can shoot himself into, or out of, a game..
Missed Field Goals
Transition Struggles
Mack struggles to finish in transition due to his size. He often pulls-up for a 3-pointer in transition, furthermore exhibiting imprudent shot selection.
Pick-and-Roll Struggles
22% of Mack’s offense comes in the form of pick-and-rolls. He does a nice job turning the corner, but he often struggles to finish at the rim.
Jump Shooting (three-pointers)
Mack is hit or miss from 3-point range, as he’s gone 4-6, 5-7 or 5-8, but has also gone 1-7 or 1-8. Rutgers expects him to score, but Mack often jacks up shots without regard for the clock or game situation.
Defense (small, can’t contest)
Due to his diminutive size, Mack has trouble contesting jump shots and also containing penetration. Per Synergy, he’s allowing 1.2 points per possession in spot-up situations, ranking in the bottom 20th percentile nationally. His limitations are apparent on film as well.
*Ages calculated at time of 2014 NBA Draft