8. Justin Cobbs | California | Senior, 22 years old
G, 6-2, 190
Last season (35.6 MPG): 15.1 PPG, 4.8 APG, 3.5 RPG, 45 percent FG%, 4.6 FTA, 18.5 PER
Outlook: With Allen Crabbe gone, Justin Cobbs will be the unquestioned leader of California this season, and has a chance to have a breakout all Pac-12 year. Cobbs is California’s top returning scorer (15.1 PPG), was fourth in the Pac-12 in assists last season (4.8), and top-150 nationally in assist percentage. He is hoping to convince scouts his skills can translate to the NBA level.
Cobbs is a strong playmaker in the half court, as he creates steady ball movement on the perimeter, and can both initiate and facilitate offense for his team. He has good court vision and uses dribble-drive penetration to get his teammates open looks and get himself to the free-throw line (4.6 free throws per game last season). Cobbs is also durable, as he played the 7th most minutes in the Pac-12 last season. He reportedly had a strong showing at the Deron Williams Skills Academy in June, and hopefully got some candid feedback from NBA scouts.
Average ball handling skills, and inconsistent decision-making required at point guard is what’s holding Cobbs back right now. He often gets trapped on the pick-and-roll, leading to an excess of turnovers and chaotic possessions. Nevertheless, now fully recovered from a foot injury he sustained earlier in the summer, Cobbs will have a great opportunity to prove himself this season.
Let’s take a look at Cobbs’ offensive arsenal; namely, his half-court scoring ability, and how he can improve in transition and pick-and-roll situations.
Shot Selection: 73.9% Jump Shots | 8.7% Runners | 15.4% Around the Basket | 2% Post Ups
HALF-COURT SCORING
Cobbs has a diverse half court game, as he can shoot from outside and also penetrate the lane. He has a smooth crossover, and when in a rhythm, can dictate the tempo and course of the game.
Seventy-four percent of Cobbs’ attempts were jump shots, where he produced .95 points per possession (65th percentile nationally), and 15.4% of his attempts were “around the basket,” where he posted an excellent 1.304 points per possession (86th percentile). Jabari Bird and Tyrone Wallace provide Cobbs with some weapons despite Allen Crabbe’s departure.
TRANSITION STRUGGLES
Cobbs struggled in transition last season, where his lack of size, athleticism and finishing ability made it difficult to score.
In the first sequence above, he can’t convert over the length of a UNLV help defender; in the second sequence, Cobbs can’t convert over 6-10 forward Travis Wear; uber-long Kyle Anderson easily blocks Cobbs in the third sequence; in the fourth, Cobbs attempts to dip his shoulder into the lane, but can’t covert; and in the fifth clip, Cobbs misses a point-blank layup.
Cobbs will need to find ways to compensate for his lack of athleticism in transition—perhaps by incorporating a runner (used on only 4.5% of possessions last season), developing a hesitation move or improving his pull-up jump shot.
PICK-AND-ROLL STRUGGLES
Lacking elite speed and ball handling, Cobbs turned the ball over on 17.5% of his pick-and-rolls last season. As the film shows, defenders had success trapping him, using their length to eliminate any bail-out pass and essentially suffocate him into turning the ball over. Cobbs also had trouble keeping his dribble alive, where he would either attempt a jump-pass or a shot attempt from an unreasonable distance.
Cobbs needs to work on keeping his head up, and making decisions in a reactive—instead of thought-out—way.
OVERALL
Cobbs isn’t a traditional point guard in my estimation, but he creates steady ball movement on the perimeter, and can penetrate the defense. He has good court vision and uses dribble-drive penetration to get his teammates open looks.
Overall, if Cobbs can increase his assist numbers, develop his handle and show more I’m the best point guard on the court ability, I think NBA attention will come his way. However, even if he does prove to be a dynamic playmaker, with his athletic shortcomings, it will be tough for him to be a legitimate point guard on the NBA level.