Xavier Johnson | Colorado | Sophomore, 20 years old
SF, 6-7, 220
Last season (24 MPG): 8.9 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 15.3 PER, 52% FG
Xavier Johnson had a solid freshman season as a role player for the Buffaloes. Although not the most athletic player, Johnson is a smooth left-handed swingman with good size and—as it appears on film—the ability to stick to his strengths (shooting, penetrating the lane, and having the length to disrupt movement on the perimeter).
Shot distribution: 48.1% Around the Basket (non Post-Ups) | 35.1% Jump Shots | 11.9% Post-Ups | 4.9% Runner
The majority of Johnson’s baskets may have come “around the basket”, but most of those shots were of the shooting variety. He posted an above average 1.191 PPP around the basket (70th percentile), and an excellent 1.123 PPP on jump shots (89th percentile). As a freshman, Johnson capitalized on the attention defenses placed on Andre Roberson and Spencer Dinwiddie, creating space for him to either have an open jump shot or a less-crowded path to the basket.
SHOOTING
While Johnson’s freshman campaign was highlighted by his shooting (44% from three-point range, 1.123 PPP on jump shots), taking a closer look at his game reveals a distinction in the type of shooting he’s actually good at right now. Johnson is an excellent catch-and-shoot player, but struggled last season in shooting off the dribble.
The numbers:
Catch-and-Shoot (24.9% of the time): 1.37 PPP (95th percentile)
Jump Shot off the dribble (9.2% of the time): .412 PPP (10th percentile)
The film:
CATCH AND SHOOT
OFF THE DRIBBLE
With Andre Roberson no longer part of the team, Johnson role will expand this season, and we will see if he’s worked on shooting off the dribble. This involves developing his ball handling, timing and overall feel. If has taken the necessary strides, he’ll expand his game even further, as the defense will play him tighter which will inevitably lead to more driving lanes.
DEFENSE
Johnson struggled across the board on the defensive end. Sure, he has an NBA body on first glance, but his lack of lateral quickness/explosion and his relatively skinny frame leave him vulnerable. Bigger guys can muscle him and use their athleticism to score in the paint. Johnson will have to add weight and also commit to battling on every possession to become a reliable—or at least an adequate—defender.
(LACK OF) POST DEFENSE
OVERALL
Johnson joins a talented crop of NBA hopefuls on Colorado’s roster (Spencer Dinwiddie, Josh Scott, etc), but improvement is the name of the game. I’ll be watching to see if—and how—his jumpshot and body have developed.