Breaking down the Top 10 forwards/centers in the Pac-12 (freshmen, and UCLA’s Tony Parker, not included).
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1. Dwight Powell | Stanford | Senior, 22 years old
PF, 6-10, 235
Last season: 14.9 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 1.1 BPG, 23.3 PER
Breakdown: With great size, terrific shooting range and a quick first step, Dwight Powell is one of the most skilled big men in the country. A top-50 recruit out of high school in 2010, Powell finally “turned the corner” last season, as he stepped up in the role of Stanford’s best player. His 26.5 usage percentage ranked 7th in the Pac-12, and he was one of only two “big men” among the top 10.
Powell was very efficient in the half court, where 96.4% of his offense occurred. He shot 47% from the field, and his .933 points per possession (PPP) in the half court ranked in the top 22% of all college players. Powell isn’t the most athletic player, but he compensates with a 7-foot wingspan and an inside-outside touch. He can face up, catch-and-shoot, and attack the basket off the dribble.
Powell can score rather convincingly on the college level. In addition to scoring, he can also rebound—his 24% defensive rebounding percentage ranked 48th nationally, per Kenpom.com.
Shot distribution: 29.9% Jump Shots | 5% Runner | 40.8% Around the Basket (non Post-Ups) | 24.3% Post-Ups
AROUND THE BASKET SCORING
As mentioned before, Powell can score from all three levels, especially in the half court. Let’s take a look at his post scoring, where he attempted 65% of his shots.
Powell shot a productive .833 PPP in post-ups, ranking among the top 60% nationally, and his 1.281 PPP in “around the basket” situations ranked in the top 18% nationally. Powell doesn’t receive “traditional post-ups” deep on the block, but he can set up in the high post and knows how to leverage for position down low.
While he is effective in the paint, Powell’s best skill is his ability to spot up and shoot from virtually anywhere. His quick release and smooth stroke keeps defenders on their toes, disrupting their timing and giving Powell a split-second edge.
SHOOTING
Powell’s .986 PPP in spot-up situations was a solid mark. Furthermore, he can operate on both sides of the floor (48.1% of offense from the right side of the court; 51.9% from the left side).
However, if you watch closely, virtually every jumpshot attempt was either from a no-dribble or one-dribble stance. While it is efficient to minimize dribbles, Powell’s (lack of) off-the-dribble jump shooting is a cause for concern. His .364 PPP shooting off the dribble ranked in the bottom 6% nationally.
Many praise Powell for his rip-through ability and quick release, but in my opinion if Powell doesn’t develop his off the dribble game, he’ll run into trouble once he starts facing NBA close-out speed and athleticism. Powell’s entire effectiveness is predicated on keeping the defense on its toes; the next step is developing his off the dribble jump shooting.
PASSING
Powell is also a very skilled post passer. His 1.44 PPP on passing out of the post when the defense commits ranked in the top 4% of all college players. As the film shows, Powell has a keen sense of where his double-teams are coming from, and where his open teammates are located. He seems to read cuts before they happen, and is a deft jump-passer. He’s not hesitant to make the correct “basketball play” (i.e. kicking it out to his shooters on the perimeter if their defender slides over to help), and he can pass with either hand.
It’s unclear how much post potential Powell has in the NBA, but his court vision and outside shooting should carry over to the next level.
OVERALL
Powell will be 23 next July, so if he’s going to bring it all together, the time is now. His jump shooting and soft touch have him on the NBA radar. If he continues to rebound and can develop his handle a little further, he has a chance to be a first round pick.
2. Brandon Ashley | Arizona | Sophomore, 19 years old
F, 6-8, 235
Last season (20.5 MPG): 7.5 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 17.5 PER, 53% field goals
A McDonald’s All-American and top-20 recruit out of high school, to me Brandon Ashley is one of the most intriguing players in the country. He’s a gifted athlete with a silky-smooth flow and physical attributes (6-8 with a 7-2 wingspan). Ashley a deft slasher with exceptional timing around the basket.
I think it boils down to this: Ashley has first-round-pick talent, but in order to maximize said talent, he will have to improve 1) his ball handling and 2) his assertiveness. Improving his “weaknesses” won’t be easy, but the good news is that unlike the majority of NBA draft prospects, Ashley’s potential and areas of growth are completely transparent, for better or worse.
In other words, the versatility is there, the rebounding (Ashley’s 21.4 defensive rebound percentage was 9th in Pac-12, and 129th nationally) is there, the defense is there. But attacking off the dribble, and more importantly the necessary motor, are not yet there.
Shot distribution: 27.9% Jump Shots | 51.9% Around the Basket (non Post-Ups) | 13% Post-Ups | 7.1% Runner
Ashley is in the Austin Daye/Tayshaun Prince mold — he can guard both forward positions on defense, and on offense can run the baseline, roam the perimeter and slash through the lane.
51.9% of his shots came around the basket last season, with 21.5% of those shot attempts coming from cuts to the hoop. Ashley’s length, bounce and timing make him a promising slasher.
CUTTING
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OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING
15.4% of Ashley’s shot attempts came off offensive rebounds (put backs), where he posted a solid 1.225 PPP (77th percentile).
As mentioned before, when Ashley is focused, his instincts and timing separate him from the pack.
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Ashley will have to elevate his game this season, and a major part of that “elevation” will hinge on his ability to put the ball on the floor and attack. This season, his focus needs to be on attacking the hoop with a refined intensity.
WEAK DRIVES
In the snippet of film above, Ashley is either “soft” attacking the rim, or his poor ball skills throw him into an off-balance shot. Ashley needs to put on weight, and develop (even if it’s just a little bit) his ball skills. If he can attack the rim while maintaining balance and position, his impact will be more than just a rebounder/slasher/active defender.
In other words, can Brandon Ashley—the epitome of versatility—impose his will? Does he have it in him? We certainly thought so coming out of high school, but now in year two, the pressure is starting to surface.
3. Kaleb Tarczewski | Arizona | Sophomore, 20 years old
C, 7-0, 255
Last season (22 MPG): 6.6 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 54% field goal percentage, 2.5 personal fouls, 15 PER
Pace-Adjusted Per 40 Minutes: 11.8 PPG, 10.9 RPG, 4.5 personal fouls
Breakdown:
A top-10 recruit coming out of high school, Kaleb Tarczewski had a revealing freshman season. He flashed glimpses of immense potential, and also showcased where he needs to improve.
Tarczewski is a supremely athletic and mobile center, running the floor smoothly and getting up to finish put-backs and infuse activity at the rim. His scoring contributions were mostly in the paint last season, where 99% of his shot attempts came from (58.4% around the basket; 40.3% Post-Ups). He shot a solid 58% around the basket, and made his mark felt on the offensive glass, where his 11.9% offensive rebounding percentage was second in the Pac-12 and 129th in the country.
On defense, Tarczewski held opponents to .57 PPP, an exceptional rate that ranked in the top 93% of the country. His mobility and length on the block, coupled with strong defensive instincts, have created for a very high defensive ceiling.
With a maturing frame and skill set, Tarczewski’s NBA prospects look very promising. He should play at least 30 minutes per game this season, and starting alongside uber-athletes Aaron Gordon and Brandon Ashley in the frontcourt should bring out the best in Tarczewski.
Let’s break down the “glimpses,” both good and bad, that we saw last season:
OFFENSIVE REBOUNDS (PUT-BACKS)
Tarczewski positions himself well and has the length/timing to grab a ton of rebounds, but he struggles to finish the second chance opportunities. His .931 PPP on put-backs ranked in the bottom 30% nationally, and even on video, it’s evident why. Tarczewski needs to improve his hand-eye coordination, and often seems to be “thinking” rather than playing instinctively. It’s almost as if he’s thinking “OK, I got the rebound. Let me regroup, bring the ball low, and now go up for a lay-up or dunk .” As he continues to repeat this process, he should gradually start reacting instead of thinking.
Also, when Tarczewski catches a put-back above the rim, he should never bring the ball down with him. At some point, put-back dunks (like we see in the last clip) should become routine.
PICK-AND-ROLL
Similar to his offensive rebounding, Tarczewski will need to improve his hand-eye coordination on the pick-and-roll. He finished a decent 1.273 PPP (88th percentile) on pick-and-rolls, and because he is a threat in the vicinity of the rim, defenses must always keep an eye on him. If Tarczewski can roll harder off the screen, he should get a ton of easy buckets next season. This is a potential breakout area for Tarczewski.
CONTESTING SHOTS
Because of his length and quickness, Tarczewski can contest shots both in the paint and on the perimeter. His length also allows him to keep his distance from the pick-and-roll ball handler (thus obstructing the roll man) while being able to contest a jumpshot from a foot away.
OVERALL
Tarczewski plays hard and looks like he can be a very good defender. The main question going forward is whether or not he can develop into a low-post threat — Put backs and pick-and-rolls have their respective value, but you need to have some semblance of an offensive game to make it in the NBA. With so much still unknown, this year will play an integral role in gauging Tarczewski’s NBA potential.
4. Josh Scott | Colorado | Sophomore, 20 years old
PF, 6-10, 215
Last season (28.2 MPG): 10.3 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 19 PER
Breakdown:
Shot distribution:
13.7% Jump Shots
42.3% Around the Basket (not Post-Ups)
43.6% Post-Ups
Josh Scott’s freshman season was more of a teaser than anything else. His NBA future is contingent on how he continues to develop. Sure, this can be said for any college player, but for Scott, his potential is really the only exciting/enjoyable/inspiring facet.
Scott is a rangy and mobile big-man with a feathery touch around the rim using his left hand (he’s a lefty). He uses long strides and quickness to get ahead of the defense in transition, and many times last season finished fast breaks as the trailer.
In the half court, Scott mainly scores in three ways: 1) he slides into open spaces to get a quick shot (i.e. no dribbles) from the elbow or low post, or 2) he scores on a put-back — 18.4% of his shots came off offensive rebounds, and he posted a very solid 1.131 PPP—better than 67% of all college players—on such plays. Furthermore, his offensive rebound percentage of 11.8% was third in Pac-12 and 132 nationally, per KenPom.com. He’s an alert—albeit awkward, which we will get to—big man with a nose for the ball, and doesn’t need to be featured in the offense to be productive (again, last season he scored mostly on hustle plays and second-chance opportunities).
Let’s take a look at where Scott was most effective as a freshman
TRANSITION
15-FOOTERS
PUT-BACKS
Scott does a nice job in all three facets, but to make it on the NBA level, he needs to improve in several areas.
Firstly, his 215-pound frame isn’t doing him any favors. Opposing big men can easily bully Scott in the paint on both sides of the ball. He needs to gain 15-20 pounds to be able to bang down low. If he can add weight and maintain his touch and agility, Scott could considerably elevate his game.
Secondly, on film Scott appears “slow,” both in getting to a spot and also releasing his shot. He compensates with great size, but his going-through-the-motions appearance concerns me. Scott needs to improve his hand-eye coordination, as has difficulty catching the ball in stride. He also makes elementary mistakes, like holding the ball down low on entry passes and rebounds, which contributed to a 10.7% turnover percentage, ranking 5th worst in the Pac-12. Let’s take a look at Scott on the pick-and-roll, and also in turnover situations.
Scott can knock down jumpshots as a roll man, but he has difficulty finishing through contact, or even driving by a stationary defender. In terms of turnovers, Scott gets flustered under pressure, picks up his dribble, and keeps it low – a recipe for disaster.
OVERALL
Scott posted solid numbers as a freshman (19 PER, 10.3 PPG, 5.7 RPG), and validated his potential. Although he’s not the most athletic player, Scott’s size, rebounding, and inside touch make him an intriguing prospect. If he can gain weight and become more consistent on offense, he should emerge on the NBA Draft radar.
5. Mike Moser | Oregon (via UNLV via UCLA) | Senior, 22 years old
6-8, 210
Last season (21.3 MPG): 7.1 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 14 PER
Per 40 Minutes Pace Adjusted: 12.7 PPG, 10.8 RPG
Breakdown:
After previous stints at UCLA and UNLV, Mike Moser enters Oregon as a fifth-year senior with a lot to prove. Moser had a great 2011-’12 campaign at UNLV, and after deciding to return to school, he suffered a dislocated elbow early last season that at the moment seems to have derailed his NBA plans.
Moser’s best skill is rebounding, as he uses his length and explosiveness to collect boards from all over the court. He can also shoot the ball semi-consistently. But he’s very skinny, and doesn’t have much of an offensive repertoire. Is Moser still—and does he have enough to be—a legitimate NBA prospect? Let’s take a look at some film:
FINISHING AROUND THE RIM
Moser has exceptional athleticism and strong hands to finish around the rim, both in the half court and transition. He can track down the ball in transition, and can rise for a dunk when set up in the half court. Although he’s not particularly skilled, he shot a solid 54.5% around the basket last season, lending credence to his potential in that area.
REBOUNDING
Moser’s calling card has always been rebounding. He 23.4% defensive rebounding percentage last season ranked 65th in the country, and he was 9th in defensive rebounding percentage during his “breakout” season two years ago.
PICK-AND-POP, SHOOTING
46.3% of Moser’s shot attempts last season were of the jumpshot variety. As seen in the clip above (apologies for the excessive “slow motion”), Moser has range on his jumpshot when given space. He’s agile enough to set wide screens and quickly pop out for a jumpshot, or to roll hard to the basket. If Moser has an NBA future, his jumpshot will play an integral role. He’s not a 3-point shooter, but Moser can knock it down from 17-feet.
DEFENSE
Moser’s 0.582 PPP defending jumpshots ranked in the 93rd percentile, as he has the length and athleticism to alter shots in his vicinity. However, because he is so frail, opposing bigs can easily back him down and bully him. His 1 PPP allowed on Post-Ups ranked in the bottom quarter of all college players, and this problem has followed him throughout his college career.
OVERALL
Nobody questions Moser’s athleticism and rebounding ability. But many have questions about his skinny frame, his lack of traditional post moves, how he’ll fit at Oregon and, frankly, what upside he has left. At the risk of sounding hyperbolic, Moser has one last chance to prove himself.
6. Eric Moreland | Oregon State | Senior, 21 years old
6-10, 215
Last season (30.7 MPG): 9.4 PPG, 10.6 RPG, 2.5 BPG, 21.6 PER, 57% FG
Breakdown:
Eric Moreland’s NBA profile starts with his physical attributes. Standing 6-10 with a reported 7-4 wingspan, Moreland is a lanky power forward whose game is predicated on athleticism and energy. Moreland runs the floor well, is mobile and fluid, and can accumulate rebounds, deflections and blocks in a hurry
He has all the physical attributes, but Moreland must continue to develop his floor skills to be taken seriously at the next level. He made progress last season, improving his scoring average by more than four points per game. Moreland extended his range out to the foul line/elbow area last season, which was a huge step considering that two years ago he was essentially a center playing in a (skinny) power forward frame, which, obviously, was alarming.
Last season, Moreland finished seventh in the Pac-12 in offensive rebounds, 4th in defensive rebounds, 2nd in blocks, and 2nd in rebounds per game. His 27.5% defensive rebound percentage ranked 5th in the country, and his 8.1 block percentage was 68th nationally. He also shot the ball very efficiently, as his 59% effective field goal percentage ranked 64th in the country.
CUTTING
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Moreland can undoubtedly use his bounce and length to make plays in the paint. Overall though, Moreland sill has a lot to improve on in the half court. At 6-10, only 6.5% of his offense came from the post. Now this would be OK if he did damage from the perimeter, but he was even worse there — his .462 PPP on “off the dribble” jumpshots ranked in the bottom 14% of all college players. He was also rarely used in the pick-and-roll last year, as he had one possession as the P&R ball handler, and only 6 possessions as the P&R screener.
Moreland can score in the half court, but in order to do so he needs someone to facilitate for him. He does a lot of work catching the ball on the move, or when the defense is out of position. But in terms of pure isolation and/or spot-up situations, he possesses neither the necessary ball handling nor shooting skills to be effective.
SHOOTING
As the video shows, Moreland’s shooting form is all sorts of whacky. He does a fade-away leg-kick on his jumpshots. Hopefully he worked on his shooting form over the summer — jumping straight up and down, correct finger and hand placement, and releasing the ball at its highest point. That’s a broken jumpshot for sure.
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DEFENSE
Moreland’s defense is also—quite literally—a step behind. His .9 PPP allowed ranked in the bottom 27% of the country, and his rebounding and shot blocking prowess notwithstanding, Moreland can be exposed in the half court. Let’s take a look at three clips from a game against Towson where Moreland struggles on defense.
In this clip, Towson’s Jerrelle Benimon swiftly blows by Moreland for an easy reverse layup. Moreland’s initial stance is forcing Benimon to go baseline, so the Towson forward takes what is given for the easy bucket. This is due to a lack of focus early on in the possession and a lack of foot speed once he’s beat.
In this clip, Moreland’s skinny frame gets taken advantage of. Using three dribbles, Benimon takes Moreland from the 3-point line to the basket for an easy bucket. Moreland applied zero resistance.
This basket is directly attributable to a lack of focus early in the possession. Towson guard Mike Burwell catches the ball in rhythm and simply goes up for the shot. Moreland—even with his freakish length—is late to recover.
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OVERALL
Moreland has physical attributes NBA teams covet, but his skill set is a few steps behind right now. The odds are against him, but if he can develop his handle, improve his focus and shooting form—all while continuing to rebound and be active on defense—he’ll have a chance at the NBA.
7. Jordan Bachynski | Arizona State | Senior, 24 years old
C, 7-2, 250
Last season (25.4 MPG): 9.8 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 3.4 BPG, 21.5 PER
Breakdown:
Jordan Bachynski is a tough prospect for me to evaluate. He enrolled as a 21-year-old freshman at Arizona State, after spending two years on a Mormon mission.
So, is he a grown man playing against boys, or is he merely catching up to where he should be? Has Bachynski already reached his ceiling, or is he still trending upwards? I am honestly unsure of how to approach his evaluation.
Age notwithstanding, Bachynski emerged on the radar during his “junior” season. Offensively, he is a traditional back to the basket center, priding himself on setting screens, finishing in the paint and blocking shots on defense. The lefty showcased nice touch inside, utilizing hook shots over his right shoulder to score. He has strong hands and consistently leverages himself to catch the ball deep in the paint, minimizing the distance between himself and the basket, in turn creating easier scoring opportunities.
Bachynski is an above-average rebounder for his size. 15.4% of his shot attempts last season came on offensive rebounds, where he shot a very good 1.225 PPP (78th percentile). His most promising skill, though, may be his shot blocking ability—Bachynski’s 13.5 block percentage was 7th best in the country. He possesses a rare skill set (the “traditional” center skill set), which has intrigued scouts.
Let’s take a look at some film:
POST-UPS
Bachynski shot 58% from the field last season, with over 90% of his shot attempts coming in the paint. As mentioned, Bachynski gets in position and finishes with a soft touch inside. That being said, he must continue to get stronger, as he will face more physical (and more skilled) defenders if he gets an NBA opportunity. Bachynski must also develop his right hand, as he shot with his left hand on 80% of his post-up attempts.
PICK-AND-ROLL
Standing at 7-2, operating out of the pick-and-roll will be essential to Bachynski’s NBA prospects. 13.6% of Bachynski’s offense came in pick-and-roll, where his 1.426 PPP ranked in the 95th percentile nationally.
As the film shows, he has impressive timing and finishing ability off the pick-and-roll, and he should continue to develop this skill while playing with Jahii Carson. His pick-and-roll skills, combined with his defense, could be his potential calling card.
SHOT BLOCKING
He stands his ground in the paint, slides his feet well and has great timing on blocks. Great footwork, patience, and defensive instincts make Bachynski one of the best shot blockers in the nation.
OVERALL
Bachynski has something you can’t tech (size), and two NBA skills (finishing on the pick-and-roll and shot blocking) that teams often covet. With Arizona State looking like a legitimate NCAA Tournament team, Bachynski will have a chance to assert himself both in-conference and nationally this season. I’m not sure if he’s already past his prime, but if Bachynski can get physically stronger and improve his right hand, a team could take a flyer on him in the second round.
8. Jordan Loveridge | Utah | Sophomore, 19 years old
SF/PF, 6-6, 220
Last season (31.7 MPG): 12.1 PPG, 7 RPG, 2 APG, 17.6 PER
Breakdown:
After a “breakout” freshman season in which he averaged 12.1 points and 7 rebounds per game, swingman Jordan Loveridge will now be the focal point of Utah’s offense, and inevitably, of all opponent scouting reports. A top-100 recruit coming out of high school, Loveridge has a silky-smooth jumpshot with a quick first step and developing mid-range game. He possesses a high basketball IQ, and if he can develop an off the dribble game, has a chance to be an NBA player.
After weighing 230 pounds last year, Loveridge has reportedly shed 15 pounds this offseason which should pay dividends on the court. He always had a deceptive first step, but he may now be able to gather a burst of explosion that was absent last season. All in all, with a strong jumpshot and impressive rebounding numbers, Loveridge has a chance to be one of the most productive players in the Pac-12 this season.
Shot distribution: 51.3% Jump Shots | 33.6% Around the Basket | 11.4% Post-Ups | 3.7% Runner
SHOOTING
Seventy-five percent of Loveridge’s jumpshots were of the mid-range and three-point variety, where he averaged a solid 1.0 PPP. Loveridge has beautiful form on his shot; he sets his feet, releases the ball at its highest point and follows through. He sometimes brings the ball behind his head, but overall he is a consistent catch-and-shoot player.
NOT GREAT IN ISOLATION, THOUGH
When defenders close out on him, though, Loveridge struggles to attack off the dribble. He produced a below-average .559 PPP (ranking in the bottom 23% of all players) in isolation situations, in addition to a 23.5% turnover rate.
Perhaps his isolation struggles were directly correlated to his heavy frame last year, and now that he’s trimmed down he’ll be able to make more of an impact. One way or another, if he wants to be an NBA player, Loveridge will need to expand his offensive arsenal to be more than just a catch-and-shoot threat.
OVERALL
With a trimmed down frame, Loveridge is in a great position to build on his impressive freshman campaign. He should once again lead the Utes in scoring, and continue to expand his offensive arsenal. If he makes progress this season, he should draw legitimate attention from NBA scouts.
10. Devon Collier | Oregon State | Senior, 22 years old
F, 6-8, 215
Last season (25.5 MPG): 12.6 PPG, 6 RPG, 1.6 APG, 23.4 PER
Devon Collier is a smooth athlete with soft touch deep in the paint. Collier has an uncanny nose for the ball, ranking in the top-10 in every offensive rebound category in the Pac-12. He is also extremely efficient, both in the half court and transition.
His 23.4 Player Efficiency Rating ranked fourth in the Pac-12; his 51.5% field goal percentage, which was second-best in the Pac-12, was actually a step back from his 61.5% field goal percentage as a sophomore. For his career, Collier is shooting 58% from the field. He also gets to the free throw line often, shooting the fifth most FTs in the conference.
All that being said, there’s one fundamental problem in Collier’s make-up that overshadows—and even undermines—all of his effectiveness: Collier is a power forward living in a small forward’s body.
At 6-8 and 215 pounds, Collier hasn’t attempted a 3-pointer in all three years of his college career. Furthermore, 85% of his shot attempts last season were of the “Post-Up” or “around the basket” variety. On the other hand, jump shooting only made up 9.4% of his shot attempts, and he shot a very poor .348 PPP on such attempts (ranking in the bottom 3% nationally).
Let’s take a look at the film:
SHOOTING (17-feet and in):
In many of the clips above, Collier literally passes up wide open 18-footers for contested 15-footers. His form is totally crooked. He brings his feet together when he shoots, all while fading diagonally, sometimes backwards and other times forwards. His shooting elbow—which should ideally be at a 90-degree angle—is completely crooked as well. I’m not saying his form is beyond repair, but in his first three seasons, Collier hasn’t given us much of a reason to believe he’ll expand his game. He should be spending countless hours in the gym working on reinventing his shot.
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TRANSITION
Collier’s 1.148 PPP in transition ranked in the 67th percentile of all players. He runs the floor well — he’s quick and bouncy, and can finish through contact.
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OVERALL
Collier is efficient, and has a propensity to accumulate rebounds and get to the foul line. But as a 22 year-old senior, as a 6-8 power forward, he must develop even a semblance of a jumpshot to be considered at the NBA level.