UConn vs. Florida: Monday, December 2, 7 p.m. EST
Opposition Report: Florida Gators
Record: 6-1
Notable Wins: Florida State (67-66)
Notable Defeats: Wisconsin (59-53)
1.13 points per possession (offensive efficiency. 29th nationally)
0.93 points allowed per possession (defensive efficiency. 15th nationally)
Florida: 36.2 Offensive Rebounding Percentage (70th nationally)
UConn: 30.3 Offensive Rebounding Percentage (210th nationally)
Florida’s Top 3 Offensive Rebounders: 49 total rebounds
UConn’s Top 3 Offensive Rebounders: 26 total rebounds
Keys to the Game:
1) Box-Out every play (Florida attacks the glass with high-energy athletes)
2) Get back on defense (Florida is lethal in transition)
3) Close out driving lanes (they prefer to score around the basket)
4) Disrupt Michael Frazier’s jump shot (he is their only reliable shooter)
5) Force Scottie Wilbekin to make plays at the rim (he struggles finishing at the rim)
Quick Thoughts: Although Florida is 6-1 and ranked No. 15 in the country, the Gators are very much a team still searching for its identity. Florida is stacked with quick guards and athletic/tenacious wings. Thus far, their success has been predicated on crashing the boards—both offensively and defensively—and then getting out in transition. Even though only 15.3% of Florida’s shot attempts have come in transition (compared to 84.7% in the half-court), Florida is scoring an excellent 1.25 points per possession in transition, ranking in the 91st percentile nationally. Athletes like Casey Prather, Michael Frazier, Patric Young and Dorian Finney-Smith are high-energy players who can run the floor and finish above the rim.
Florida’s penchant for rebounding is evident on film. Guards Scottie Wilbekin and Kasey Hill—who is day-to-day with a high ankle sprain, and isn’t expected to play on Monday—push the tempo and either kick it out for a jump shot or look for an open cutter (Florida’s 1.46 points per possession scoring off cuts ranks in the top 3% nationally). Regardless if the shot goes in, though, guys like Finney-Smith (8.6 RPG and 14.5 rebounds per 40 minutes), Prather (5.7 RPG), Yeguete (5.1 RPG) and Young (5.0 RPG) will attack the glass with consistency and conviction. In comparison, UConn only has one player—Shabazz Napier—averaging more than 5 rebounds per game.
In the half court, Florida likes to swing the ball, penetrate the lane and attack the rim. They are much more effective “around the basket” than on the perimeter. Other than shooting guard Michael Frazier (averaging 14 points, shooting 52% from the field and 49% on jump shots), Florida really struggles to shoot the ball. They shoot 34.4% on jump shots as a team, and 36% on 3-pointers. Florida has made 37 three-pointers through seven games, while UConn has made 55.
In the backcourt, Wilbekin will be the primary ball handler for the Gators. Wilbekin has a good handle and great court vision—he averages 7.5 assists per game—but he is an erratic player and struggles to finish at the rim. Wilbekin can create any shot he wants, but to the detriment of his team, he often struggles to finish the play.
On the wing, Florida features Frazier, Finney-Smith, Prather and Yeguete. As mentioned, Frazier is the only player with a “good” jump shot right now. 83% of Frazier’s shots this season have been jump shots, and he is shooting 49% on such shots. By contrast, only 12% of Prather’s attempts have been jump shots, 42% of Finney-Smith’s attempts, and 15.6% of Yeguete’s attempts.
Yes, seven games is a small sample size, but Finney-Smith, Prather and Yeguete have not been reliable shooters thus far in their college careers.
Overall, UConn must focus on boxing out every play, eliminating driving lanes, and closing-out on Michael Frazier.
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Florida Gators
Scoring Distribution: 54.4% 2-Pointers | 21.6 3-Pointers | 24.1 Free Throws
Shot Attempt Breakdown: 41% Around the Basket | 38.5% Jump Shots | 14.5% Post-Ups | 6% Runners
Key Players (no particular order):
Dorian Finney-Smith —11.8 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 18.3% O-Rebounding Percentage
Sophomore, F, 6-8, 215
Finney-Smith sat out last season after transferring from Virginia Tech. A very active player who attacks the glass and can make plays in transition. His 18.3% offensive rebounding percentage (percentage of possible offensive rebounds Finney-Smith secured when on the floor) ranks 22nd in the country. He has the length and athleticism to be persistent on the glass, with a second and third “burst” off the ground.
Video: Rebounding
Offensively, 54% of Finney-Smith’s shot attempts this season have come around the basket, while 42.9% have been jump shots. However, according to Synergy Sports, he is shooting 22% on jump shots this season, and has not shown much in terms of being a perimeter threat. He has a long release on his shot, and does not seem to be comfortable. He can occasionally sink a quick jump shot in the high-post, but overall, he does not pose much of a shooting threat.
Video: Poor Jump Shot
Defensively, Finney-Smith’s length makes him a tough defender in both man-to-man and zone situations. He’s a very instinctive player, and leverages his athleticism to make good on his instincts.
Overall, if you can keep Finney-Smith off the glass, you should be OK. He’s a very talented player who will find a way to impact the game, but in my opinion, stopping Finney-Smith on the glass is paramount to minimizing his impact.
Scottie Wilbekin — 9.5 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 7.5 APG, 4 SPG
Senior, PG, 6-2, 175
Wilbekin is Florida’s primary ball handler and he is tasked with setting the tempo. He has played only two games so far this season (suspension), but as a senior, he should presumably get back into game shape (mentally and physically) fairly quickly.
With so many natural athletes on Florida’s roster, Wilbekin will try to push the tempo and set his teammates up for scoring opportunities. He is doing a good job thus far, averaging 7.5 assists and 4 steals per game. Florida often operates from the pick-and-roll; 28.45 of Wilbekin’s offense was in the pick-and-roll last season, and 40% has been in the pick-and-roll this year.
Video: Assists
However, he was an average pick-and-roll player last season, as his .686 points per possession ranked in the 45th percentile nationally. This is because Wilbekin has several holes in his game that opposing teams can capitalize on.
Finishing Struggles
Wilbekin was a much better jump shooter (1.2 points per possession; 75th percentile) than finisher around the basket (1 point per possession; 43rd percentile) last season. This is apparent on film as well — Wilbekin has a smooth handle to break down his man, but he often struggles to finish at the rim. His diminutive size and lack of burst force him into difficult, off-balance angles. Perimeter defenders such as Omar and Terrence, and interior defenders such as Amida and DeAndre should make a concentrated effort to get a hand in Wilbekin’s face.
Struggles Going Left
In man-to-man situations last season, Wilbekin “drove right” 65% of the time, while only “going left” 32% of the time. Furthermore, he scored .833 points per possession driving right (59th percentile), while only scoring .50 points per possession going left (bottom 85th percentile nationally), and converting only 25% of his drives “going left.” Wilbekin’s discomfort going left is evident in the small snippet of film below — when driving left, he often tries to finish with his right hand, or even attempts to completely change course and come back to the right side.
Michael Frazier II — 14.4 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 53% 3-point shooting
Sophomore, SG, 6-4, 200
Frazier is by far Florida’s best 3-point shooter. He hit 47% of his 111 three-point attempts as a freshman, and is off to a strong start this season. His 1.6 points per possession in spot-up situations ranks in the top 5 percent nationally, and according to Synergy Sports, Frazier is shooting 49% on jump shots this season. He is excellent on the catch-and-shoot (52%), and shooting off the dribble (56%). You could argue it’s a small sample size, but he was a knock-down shooter last season, and looks to be even more comfortable in his second season.
Video: 3-point shooting
Video: Pick-and-Roll
Casey Prather — 19.1 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 2.4 APG
Senior, F, 6-6, 215
Prather’s ability to finish at the rim is extremely impressive for a player who is only 6-6. He is an agile and athletic player who scores in transition, off cuts and offensive rebounds. He’s mastered these aspects of offense to produce averages of 19 points and 6 rebounds per game, leading Florida in scoring and significantly impacting every game he plays in.
He can fly in transition, where nearly 30 percent of his offense has come from this season. 10 percent of his offense is slashing to the hoop, where his 1.6 points per possession ranks in the 95th percentile nationally. In total, 85% of Prather’s shots have come around the basket, where he has the strength and explosion to finish above the rim and also accumulate free throws (7.3 free-throw attempts per game).
Video: Transition
Video: Around the Basket
Patric Young — 9.3 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 1.3 BPG
Senior, F/C, 6-9, 240
Young is Florida’s most experienced player, and presumably the team’s leader. He is a big-bodied post player who can “bully” opposing big men when focused. People often dismiss/overlook Young because he is so “old,” but he is a former McDonald’s All-American who does provide value for Florida.
Young lives in the paint — 93% of his shot attempts last season were Post-Up/Around the Basket attempts. He’s also an efficient player (49% FG this season, 59% as a junior, 62% as a sophomore), staying close to the rim and imposing his physicality on the college level.
However, I think this his field goal percentage is misleading, because Young has limited range on his shot. He has occasionally showcased jump hooks over either shoulder, and is a viable alley-oop threat, but all things considered he is by no means a “low post” threat. He has virtually no shooting range, weak hands to catch the ball, and not much of a face-up game. He cannot consistently put the ball on the floor, either.
But Young does have a high basketball IQ, and he is usually in the right spot to catch the ball and go up for a dunk. Although he’s not a crafty offensive player, he provides Florida with a skill-set many teams lack: size, defensive physicality, and a natural toughness inside. Young’s physicality alone makes him an impact player.
Video: Post Struggles
Video: Scoring Off Cuts